AFL Betting Tips 2025: Opening Round Best Bets And Betting Trends

March always feels like an eternity away at the end of September and yet another AFL season has quickly snuck up on us! 

2025 begins again with the controversial ‘Opening Round’ north of the Barassi Line, providing two early games for punters to sink their teeth into. 

As of next week, we’ll be previewing three games from every round of the season to find you not only what will hopefully be some successful plays from the best Australian betting sites, but also the greatest value in the market for some of the most popular ‘player props’ in the AFL betting space. 

But for now, with the two south-east Queensland matches being postponed due to the impending arrival of TC Alfred, we’ll pay some special attention to the two Sydney matches which will attract extra attention and a lot more action for AFL betting apps.

AFL Round 1 Predictions:

• Sydney Vs Hawthorn: Over 169.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Unibet
• GWS Giants Vs Collingwood: Over 168.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Ladbrokes

Sydney Vs Hawthorn, Friday 7.40pm AEDT

Neither Sydney nor Hawthorn will be happy with how the end of 2024 panned out, but in one way they were the two biggest overachievers of last season. 

The Swans and Hawks covered the pre-game line 17 times each in 2024, from 27 and 26 games respectively, more than any other sides in the competition, making them a bit of a headache for Australian betting sites. 

Sydney are looking to go into a new season 1-0 for a sixth consecutive time at a venue where they won each of their last four games within the 1-39 point bracket.

That opens up that as an appealing play if you think they can start 2025 off on the right foot without their captain Callum Mills, Logan McDonald or Errol Gulden. 

They were boosted on Thursday night by the news that both Brodie Grundy and Tom Papley passed their fitness tests, and Papley will be out to kick 2+ goals at the SCG for a seventh consecutive time. 

Papley was seen as low as 1.70 to boot 2+ in some other markets, so the 2.48 on Unibet at the time of writing is an excellent price for a popular player bet.

In addition to a narrow Sydney win and a 2+ goal haul from Papley, we are expecting a high-scoring contest. 

Seven of Sydney’s last nine SCG games went over the 169.5 point mark, whilst all games involving the Swans were among the heaviest scoring of the competition with an average of 173 points. 

Best Bet: Over 169.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Unibet

Best Value: Sydney To Win By 1 To 39 Points - 2.40 With PlayUp

Player Prop: Tom Papley To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.48 With Unibet

GWS Giants Vs Collingwood, Sunday 3.20pm AEDT

We will also be backing the Over for the only other Opening Round game to take place this weekend, which will be a fascinating contest between two teams neck-and-neck in the Premiership futures. 

The Giants’ season faded out courtesy of an abysmal collapse at home to Brisbane in last year’s finals series, and one of the measures they have taken to address their shortcomings is yet to be realised with new recruit Jake Stringer having to delay his GWS debut.

They have also lost star midfielder Tom Green to injury, while Harry Perryman’s defection to their upcoming opponents was one of the high profile moves of the summer. 

The GWS defence is going to have a busy time dealing with two of the favourites to kick multiple goals in this game, as Bobby Hill and Brody Mihocek have booted 2+ in four of their last six matches.

They could well be overrun here, and with each of the last five head-to-heads hosted by GWS clearing the main total points handicap, we are going to go with the trend and back it in a double with Collingwood to cover the line against their undermanned opposition. 

Toby Greene also loves ENGIE Stadium and he too could contribute significantly to the total score. He enters the new season with 2+ goals in each of his last five home appearances.

Best Bet: Over 168.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Ladbrokes

Best Value: Collingwood -6.5 And Over 168.5 Points Double - 3.35 With Unibet

Player Prop: Toby Greene To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.00 With Bet365

(Odds correct at time of publish - 09:45, 6 March, 2025)