AFL Betting Tips 2025: Round 5 Best Bets And Betting Trends

It was yet another outstanding week last week for followers of Gambling.com’s AFL best bets blog with five out of six correct predictions for the second week in a row, this time with a bit of fortune going our way as we hit the Gold Coast-Adelaide total by one point. 

Readers who took the quoted odds available amongst Australia’s best betting apps would have earned a 54% profit last week, taking our total profit for season 2025 up to 21% if staking evenly across all tips. 

Now it’s time for one of the most exciting weeks of the season: Gather Round in Adelaide, where the Adelaide Oval, Norwood Oval and the Barossa Valley will play host to a nine-game extravaganza.

That doesn’t mean we can’t use South Australian form to fuel our tips for this week, but there are a couple of total points handicaps on our favourite best Australian betting sites that have caught our eye. 

AFL Round 5 Predictions:

• Collingwood Vs Sydney Under 169.5 Points - 1.90 With Picklebet
• Carlton Vs West Coast Under 176.5 Points - 1.90 With Ladbrokes
• Essendon -1.5 Points Vs Melbourne - 1.90 With Bet365

Collingwood Vs Sydney, Friday 7:40pm AEDT

After they got over the line in a scrappy affair against archrivals Carlton last week, Collingwood will set out on Friday night to win their tenth consecutive match at the Adelaide Oval. 

The Swans won five of the last six head-to-heads, including both to take place in 2024, and there isn’t much to separate the two of them across some key statistics. 

Collingwood and Sydney started this weekend 17th and 15th respectively in the league for total points scored per game in 2025, which consequently saw six of the eight games involving either side falling under the total points handicap. 

Only two of those eight had 170+ total points, so it’s an emerging trend that could be worth following here.

The injury to Lachie Schultz means there’ll be a little more responsibility for Brody Mihocek to deliver goals and he’s on a seven-game streak when it comes to scoring 2+ goals outside of Victoria, whilst last week’s game was just the third time in his last 11 matches he didn’t finish with multiple goals. 

Best Bet: Collingwood Vs Sydney Under 169.5 Points - 1.90 With Picklebet

Player Prop: Brody Mihocek 2+ Goals - 1.81 With Unibet

Carlton Vs West Coast, Saturday 1:20pm AEDT

Another match we’re expecting to fall ‘unders’ in terms of total points takes place between two of the league’s three worst attacking units this year. 

Carlton and West Coast are averaging just 60.8 and 62.5 points per game each in 2025, whilst the Eagles also have the competition’s worst defensive record (118 points against per game).

Carlton managed to strangle Collingwood just enough last week (aided by some horrendous accuracy in front of goal) to remain competitive despite scoring just six goals. 

The possible return of Harry McKay after his VFL outing last week gives them one more option, but even if they were to have an easier time this week they can exceed their highest score of 75 this season by a long way.

The output from the Eagles isn’t likely to contribute a great deal to what seems a generous total from best AFL betting sites.

We do however think that Jamie Cripps is of great value on Unibet to kick a goal. Not only is he on a 17-game scoring streak in South Australia, but he has a career rate of kicking goals in nearly 70% of career games, a rate that since the start of last year is an even better 78% despite all of West Coast’s problems. 

Best Bet: Carlton Vs West Coast Under 176.5 Points - 1.90 With Ladbrokes

Player Prop: Jamie Cripps 1+ Goal - 1.65 With Unibet

Melbourne Vs Essendon, Saturday 7:35pm AEDT

This shapes up as one of the more fascinating matches between two sides desperate to enjoy some glory. Essendon had a bye at an appropriate time, allowing their injury-riddled squad a chance to reset after a poor start to the year.

Their opponents have arguably been even more underwhelming, illustrated by failing to cover the pre-match line in three of their four games so far. 

The Dees are losing by an average of nearly 40 points this season and are 23 points behind Essendon in terms of points per game this season but only nine ahead when it comes to points conceded.

That’s not an entirely accurate reflection given the sample size and the different oppositions, but the Bombers getting the week off to put the first month behind them could give them an edge. 

We’ll be hoping for the Bombers to repeat their 2023 Gather Round victory over Melbourne and for Christian Salem to bounce back after his six-game streak of 20+ disposals ended last week (18). 

Best Bet: Essendon -1.5 Points Vs Melbourne - 1.90 With Bet365

Player Prop: Christian Salem 20+ Disposals - 1.67 With Betr