Champions Trophy Final India v New Zealand: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v New Zealand predictions: 

• India to win - 1.40 @ 22Bet Sports
• Daryl Mitchell over 22.5 runs - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports
• Shreyas Iyer over 28.5 runs - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports

When: Sunday, 9 March, 2:30 pm IST

Where: Dubai International Cricket Stadium

Watch: Star Sports, Sports18

Best Odds: India 1.40, New Zealand 3.00

India is one step away from picking up two ICC trophies in the space of less than 12 months after they stormed into the final of the Champions Trophy with an authoritative semi-final win over Australia. 

A knockout meeting with New Zealand revives no shortage of nightmares for Indian supporters, such as the 2019 World Cup semi-final and the 2000 edition of the ICC KnockOut Trophy (the Champions Trophy’s predecessor) during which New Zealand won the trophy against an Indian side with the likes of Ganguly and Tendulkar. 

The Indians have rarely been tested throughout their four victories in Dubai, and whilst the 2023 World Cup is fresh evidence that they still have a big job ahead of them in the final, it certainly helps to have played all four matches at the same venue and in a city where they have enjoyed relaxed security arrangements compared with teams in Pakistan. 

That’s why cricket betting sites consider India to be compelling favourites once again, and we’ll certainly be hoping to repeat our own heroics of the group stage game against New Zealand, where we had two winning best bets for a 50% profit!

The Numbers That Matter

• Nine of the last 12 ODIs here were won chasing
• Tom Latham averages less than 20 in ODIs against Jadeja and Axar
• Kuldeep Yadav to Glenn Phillips in ODIs/T20Is: 3-25 from 45 balls
• Rachin Ravindra scored 50+ in seven of his 14 innings at a World Cup or Champions Trophy

India's ODI trophy drought is over

Granted, the odds of 1.40 or thereabouts aren't appealing to anybody looking for some excitement, but sometimes you just have to take the profit where it is.

All the cards are in India's hands on this occasion: a commanding record of six consecutive ODI wins against the Black Caps (all in Asia), their familiarity with the venue, having played the entire tournament in Dubai, and an imposing arsenal of batting and bowling weapons at their disposal. 

India have had the immense advantage of playing this entire tournament in Dubai and have looked at home the entire time, taking 40 of a possible 40 wickets despite having to adapt to changing conditions.

Their best bowling performance came in the match against New Zealand, where only Kane Williamson was able to get beyond 30. 

Had this game taken place in Pakistan, where New Zealand collected all three of their wins, we would have had to think a lot harder about this prediction, but there’s very little going in New Zealand’s favour on paper.

Prediction: India to win - 1.40 @ 22Bet Sports

Daz is back and hungry for more

One man that might thwart our tip for India to win could be big hitter Daryl Mitchell, who bounced back with a 37-ball 49 having come in during the 34th over with New Zealand already well into the 200s. 

Ironically, he also scored 49 against India at this very venue in the 2021 T20 World Cup, which goes hand-in-hand with his twin centuries against India (130 and 134) at the 2023 ODI World Cup. 

His most recent outing netted him just 17 runs in the group stage, but Mitchell is a big ‘confidence player’ and can string together successive impactful scores once he gets going. 

He now has an average in the 40s against the Indian bowling attack he faced in the group stage, with Mohammed Shami (3-55) and Kuldeep Yadav (2-84) the only two to dismiss him.

Prediction: Daryl Mitchell over 22.5 runs - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports

Scintillating Shreyas continues to be a profitable pick

He’s not the team’s leading run scorer of the tournament but it could be argued that Shreyas Iyer has been India’s most consistent performer with the bat.

Set an over/under mark of about 28.5 runs with leading Indian betting apps, Shreyas went into the 40s if not beyond in all but one of his seven ODI innings this year, including three of four at this tournament. 

His top score of the year was 79 in India’s win over the Black Caps that featured just six boundaries from nearly 98 balls but showed a lot of control against everything New Zealand could throw at him. 

We successfully backed Shreyas to clear 26.5 runs in that match on the basis of him having a worst score of 33 from seven (now eight) ODI innings against New Zealand. 

Shreyas now boasts an ODI average of 70 against New Zealand, and against the bowling attack they fielded in the group stage H2H, it now stands at a whopping 170 from 196 balls, with Will O’Rourke the first and only man of the five to have dismissed him.

His record at this venue and against the bowlers he’ll be facing is too good to ignore. 

Prediction: Shreyas Iyer over 28.5 runs - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports