Champions Trophy India v Australia: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Australia predictions: 

• India to win - 1.53 @ Parimatch Sports
• Travis Head over 28.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch Sports
• Varun Chakravarthy 2+ wickets - 2.10 @ Parimatch Sports

When: Tuesday 4 March, 2:30 pm IST

Where: Dubai International Cricket Stadium

Watch: Star Sports, Sports18

Best Odds: India 1.53, Australia 2.50

No Bumrah, Siraj, Starc, Hazlewood or Cummins. 

The bowling attacks of India and Australia have changed dramatically between the 2023 World Cup final in Ahmedabad and now, but the batting units remain somewhat similar. 

India were the only team to take 30 of a possible 30 wickets in the group stage of the Champions Trophy, and assisted by a fairly drab and slow Dubai centre wicket, they also recorded the best economy rate (4.65rpo) of all teams. 

The fact they did so and still didn’t end up with any of the top five leading wicket-takers of the tournament shows what a widespread but dangerous arsenal they have at their disposal.

That’s why they’re again strong favourites with the best Indian betting sites, and knowing how poorly Australia went against spin in Sri Lanka earlier this year, we wouldn’t be surprised if India again go with four slow bowlers and overrun their opponents on their way to the final.

The Numbers That Matter

• No team broke the 250-run mark in Dubai’s last 12 ODIs
• Carey averages 19.8 in ODIs v India’s last set of bowlers (178/9)
• Kohli averages 52 v Zampa in ODIs (264/5)
• Dwarshuis took 3-66 and 3-47 in his two Champions Trophy games

Dubai is as good as a home ground now

India already owned one of the world’s best ODI records at Dubai International prior to this tournament and Dubai has been as good as Delhi.

They have the immense advantage of playing the entire tournament at one ground irrespective of who they play and how they perform and that is something that should give them a big upper hand against a weakened Australia side. 

Australia will be fielding many players who have never played international cricket in Dubai - not even the 230-game combined careers of Travis Head or Josh Inglis includes an appearance in the UAE - whilst the remainder haven’t been there since the 2021 T20 World Cup. 

The Aussies were bamboozled by spin against Sri Lanka recently and they face multiple threats on that front here with three of India’s four spinners taking 4+ tournament wickets. 

Gill, Kohli and Shreyas Iyer are all in sparkling form in Dubai with the first two striking centuries in the group stage and Shreyas putting together back-to-back half-centuries, whilst KL Rahul, Axar, Hardik and Rohit all have top scores in the 40s to prove they can counter the bowling-friendly conditions. 

The World Cup final is a reminder that coming into the knockout stages in peak form isn’t a guarantee for victory, but India’s opposition is much weaker on paper this time around and so the best price you can find amongst cricket betting sites is worth taking. 

Prediction: India to win - 1.53 @ Parimatch Sports

Head bullies Indian white ball bowlers wherever he goes

Whether it’s in international cricket or in the IPL, Travis Head has been the bane of the Indian bowler for many years now. 

He comes into the match following a 40-ball 59 no prior to the rain falling in Lahore. While Dubai will present more difficult batting conditions than Lahore, his fantastic success against and in India should hold him in excellent stead. 

Cricket betting sites have set him a 28.5 run over/under mark (or thereabouts) for this match and that’s one he cleared in five of his last six ODIs against India, the most recent of which was of course the devastating 134* in the World Cup final.

Head has a favourable personal record against almost all Indian bowlers, and his numbers against their previous bowling attack plus Harshit Rana are outstanding. 

He averages 60 in ODIs, 28.8 in all T20s (T20I and IPL) and 50 in Test cricket, showing that whatever the colour of the ball or the format of the day, he’s likely to be on top of this bowling lineup. 

Prediction: Travis Head over 28.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch Sports

Have India unearthed a secret weapon for finals?

There’s no guarantee that Varun Chakravarthy will take to the field in the semi-final, for he was merely a replacement for the rested Harshit Rana who may force his way back in through his incumbency. 

But with cricket betting sites offering refunds for bets on players that aren’t part of the playing XI, there’s nothing to lose with what we believe is an outstanding price for him to take multiple wickets. 

Big bags of wickets are no new thing for Chakravarthy, who has primarily been a star performer for the India side in the T20 format, where he bamboozled his way to 2+ wicket hauls in each of his last nine T20Is. 

Filling in for Harshit against New Zealand, he carried that wonderful form into the longer white-ball format with a five-wicket grab that should leave team management wondering how they can keep him in the XI.

Bye-bye, Kuldeep Yadav, perhaps? It’s a big call, but the fact that you can more than double your money for him to get 2+ scalps if he is picked is superb value. 

Prediction: Varun Chakravarthy 2+ wickets - 2.10 @ Parimatch Sports