India v England Fourth T20I: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v England predictions:
- Phil Salt under 20.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
- Harry Brook under 19.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
- Sanju Samson over 23.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
When: Friday 31 January, 7:00 pm IST
Where: MCA Stadium, Pune
Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar
Best Odds: India 1.53, England 2.50
To the surprise of very few, England eventually found their feet and bounced back to keep the series alive heading into the fourth T20I at the Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium in Pune.
Cricket betting sites have shifted the odds accordingly but are still grading India as warm favourites to win, as they have done right through the series.
Some interesting patterns of success and failure are emerging which have helped to shape our three latest predictions for our India v England 4th T20I preview.
The Numbers That Matter
- The all-time run rate for T20I and IPL games at MCA Stadium: 7.96rpo
- England have never won consecutive away T20Is v India in the same series
- Adil Rashid took 0-1 in 15 of his 16 T20I innings in India
- Jamie Smith scored 25+ in only two of his eight white ball internationals
Nobody enjoys a Salt shortage!
…well, maybe the Indian bowlers do considering how devastating he can be against the white ball - just ask the West Indies - but England’s opener has been dreadfully out of form in this series.
He’s on a run of five consecutive single digit scores (2, 2, 0, 4, 5) in T20s that includes a pair of 2s in the UAE International League T20, and his timing throughout this series in particular has been poor.
It was Arshdeep Singh who got him in the first two games and Hardik Pandya in the third, and on all three occasions Salt was the architect of his own demise with poorly executed attacking shots.
It makes for a series total of just 17 runs from 22 balls faced and there appears to be no relief in sight, making a bet of under 20.5 runs in the fourth T20I an appealing play on Indian betting sites.
Prediction: Phil Salt under 20.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
Brook’s abhorrent time may not stop
Salt’s vice-captain has had a similarly poor run in this series but in a different manner.
Whereas Salt has been holing out to pace deliveries with bad shots, Harry Brook has been entirely at sea against the leg-spin from Varun Chakravarthy and Ravi Bishnoi, who between them have bowled just 1.5 overs to Brook for combined figures of 3-11.
Brook’s comments about the smog in Kolkata also offered some insights into the struggles he has in Indian conditions and perhaps his 38 runs in this series should come as no surprise considering he made just 190 runs in the 2023 IPL season, even with 100 of those coming in a single knock.
Indian bookmakers have set him a mark of 19.5 runs in this match, and considering his T20I career average of 16.85 and that Chakravarthy and Bishnoi aren’t likely to go anywhere in this series, we’re expecting his struggles to continue.
Prediction: Harry Brook under 19.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
But will another out-of-form batter find some comfort?
Sanju Samson is another batter who has been short of runs in this series, putting together two single-digit scores after his 26 in Kolkata.
But he has had only one problem in this series so far: Jofra Archer’s express pace and ‘hard lengths’ dismissed Samson in each of the first three games for figures of 3-8 from 15 balls.
Knowing of England’s promise to give all 15 squad members a run in this series, they could give Archer a rest here for either Gus Atkinson or Saqib Mahmood as they continue to be careful with Archer’s preparation for the ICC Champions Trophy.
If Archer is indeed ruled out of this game, we believe Samson will have the breathing space he needs to spread his wings at a venue where he has enjoyed previous success at IPL level.
One of his IPL centuries was recorded in Pune, whilst in the 2022 season he recorded scores of 55 and 27 from two innings at this venue - both beyond the threshold set by cricket betting apps.
But be warned: this bet is suggested only if it is confirmed that Jofra Archer will be rested.
Prediction: Sanju Samson over 23.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
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