India v Zimbabwe Fourth T20I: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Zimbabwe predictions: 

• Zimbabwe opening partnership under 17.5 runs - 1.9 @ Rajabets Sports
• Tadiwanashe Marumani under 17.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Shubman Gill to score 30+ runs - 2.00 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Saturday 13 July, 4:30pm IST

Where: Harare Sports Club, Harare

Watch: Sony Sports, SonyLIV

Best Odds: India 1.07, Zimbabwe 11

Zimbabwe didn’t repeat the embarrassment of the 100-run losing margin of the second T20I when going down by 23 runs on Wednesday, but their fielding and top order batting let them down terribly. 

Whereas the Indians are going to have to find a way to cram about four or five world class openers into two positions as they plan their T20 World Cup title defence, Zimbabwe are scrambling desperately just to find a solid opening partnership.

After they cost themselves a good 20 or so runs in the field, Zimbabwe still managed to keep their visitors to a score that was not unassailable, though the run chase was good as done within the first seven overs as Washington Sundar broke the back of the middle order in the seventh over.

India’s win odds with cricket betting sites have therefore shortened even further after they recovered from the rusty start to the series, but there are still plenty of player markets to investigate in what will be our final preview of the series. 

The Numbers That Matter

• Across their last ten Harare T20Is, Zimbabwe scored at 7.27rpo and conceded 7.72rpo
• Avesh Khan and Washington Sundar have each recorded a three, two and one-wicket haul in this series
• Abhishek Sharma is yet to take a wicket in this series (0-76 from seven overs)
• Richard Ngarava to India’s last top seven in ODIs/T20Is: 0-76 from 50 balls
• Washington Sundar to Johnathan Campbell in this series: 2-3 from 5 balls

Zimbabwe can’t find a good start with the bat

Khaleel Ahmed produced a third-over wicket upon his return to the team and joined a growing list of Indian fast bowlers who have delivered wickets in spades over the past week.

They have now had two different opening partnerships in this series and they’ve all been broken up for fewer than ten runs, and with India’s fast bowlers growing into their roles it’s hard to see things improving.

Wesley Madhevere was dismissed cheaply on Wednesday following two promising innings last weekend, and with his conqueror Avesh Khan taking five wickets in two games, this matchup is likely to emerge once again.

But their woes are not just limited to this particular series: having also experimented with opening partnerships that include Brian Bennett, Joylord Gumbie, Craig Ervine and Tinashe Kamunhukamwe in their last nine T20Is, Zimbabwe’s first pair were dismissed for fewer than the 17.5 run mark set by New Indian bookmakers on eight of those nine occasions.

Many of those came against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, who field fast bowling attacks of similar class and pedigree to this second-string India lineup. 

Prediction: Zimbabwe opening partnership under 17.5 runs - 1.9 @ Rajabets Sports

One half of that problem is…

We anticipated in our third T20I preview that the out-of-form Innocent Kaia would be dropped for Tadiwanashe Marumani and implored you to back the ‘unders’ count for Marumani’s total run count.

Marumani left nothing on the field when taking to the Indian opening bowlers with unbridled aggression on Wednesday but, after striking three boundaries, he recklessly mishit Khaleel Ahmed to mid-on and was on his way for 13.

The intent was encouraging, but his technique continues to be exposed by bowlers from full member nations even despite most of his cricket coming against Bangladesh and Ireland.

It therefore seems remarkable that Indian cricket betting apps are willing to offer a 1.83 price for him to be dismissed for 17 or fewer runs given that has happened in three-quarters of his 29 T20I innings, which is now a significant sample size.

It’s a play we’re happy to go after once again as he hasn’t shown a lot to suggest his numbers will significantly improve, whilst India’s bowlers continue to get better.

Prediction: Tadiwanashe Marumani under 17.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

On the other hand…

Whilst he’s not under the spotlight of a T20 World Cup or a marquee home series against Australia, new stand-in captain Shubman Gill has had to deal with the nonetheless immeasurable pressure of leading India’s men’s cricket team on an away tour.

He has a wealth of growing still to do both as a leader and a batter, especially as a 24-year-old with fewer than 100 internationals under his belt, but out in the middle he looks to be increasingly easy about his role.

Following his ten-boundary 66 on Wednesday, the second time in the series he top scored for India, Gill now averages an impressive 55 (164/3) in all white ball cricket against Zimbabwe’s last bowling attack - that’s ODIs, T20Is and the IPL all in one.

Gill has cleared 30+ runs in two of three games this month, which must be doing wonders for his confidence after he failed to establish any kind of consistency throughout his first 15 T20Is. 

He has now had more than 80 deliveries in this series to get comfortable, which in turn gives us the confidence to back him to deliver one or two more impactful scores to seal his place in the strengthened team for the tour of Sri Lanka in late January.

Prediction: Shubman Gill to score 30+ runs - 2.00 @ Rajabets Sports