Arizona Swing State Betting: Odds Tip Former President Trump To Crush Harris

UK betting sites believe Donald Trump is on course for a crushing victory in Arizona and pick up a key swing state in November's presidential election.

The polls suggest Trump has a two-point lead over Kamala Harris in the Grand Canyon State – the first time the Republican candidate has pushed this far ahead of his rival.

Arizona carries 11 electoral college votes and has backed the winning presidential candidate in five of the last seven elections.

Joe Biden’s win in Arizona four years ago was seen as a vital step in his path to victory over Trump. Now the state is back in contention and the GOP feel it can reclaim the state, with immigration the biggest issue among voters.

Indeed, Trump appears to be polling well across the southern belt of swing states that he needs if he is to wrest power from the Democrats.

Harris, by contrast, is polling better in the rustbelt states to the north.

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Arizona will likely flip on the whim of a few thousand independent or centrist voters who are still to make up their mind on who to vote for.

And right now political betting sites think they’ll sway towards Trump.

Latest Arizona Election Betting Odds

Bookmakers are keeping a close eye on the swing states as we inch towards the election and it’s fair to say they’ve already made their mind up about Arizona.

While states like Pennsylvania are still seemingly in the balance, the bookies expect the GOP to claim victory in AZ.

BoyleSports has a Trump win priced at 1/3 – odds that carry a 75% likelihood. By contrast, odds on a Harris triumph balloon out to 5/2 (28.6%) on betting apps.

That price has already inflated since Harris and Trump had their first TV debate on September 10, where the vice president was judged to have won the contest.

The big question, then, is why do betting sites feel Trump is so likely to win, when the polls suggest it’s a tight race?

Who Will Win Arizona?

The answer to who will win Arizona already appears to be answered as we enter the final days of the campaign. When bettors back a candidate, bookmakers shorten the odds. When bettors shy away from a candidate, their odds widen.

This is what’s happening in Arizona. Two-thirds of all bets on the Arizona election result back Trump to win. His price is being pushed in to 1/3 due to the weight of support.

Likewise, support for Harris is waning, which means her odds inflate.

This doesn’t explain who will actually win the state’s 11 electoral college votes on November 5 but it shows how bettors are viewing this contest.

From here, even though the polls are within the margin of error, it’s hard to see how Harris earns enough support in the state to keep it blue.

Arizona itself is a sore subject for Trump. His supporters viewed the state as the best opportunity to overturn the official election result from November 2020, but an investigation that lasted months found there was no election interference. Biden won the state by around 10,000 votes.

Since then Trump supporters have become more vocal, Democrats have dug in, and the number of independents and undecided voters has dwindled. Both parties are fighting over scraps this autumn, hoping to win the state by a handful of votes.

Immigration and the economy are the two biggest issues for Arizonans. They’re two issues that Trump generally polls better in than Harris.

However, abortion has become another hot topic as residents are asked to vote on whether to enshrine abortion in the state constitution while also voting for the president.

If approved, the Arizona amendment would codify a "fundamental right" to receive abortion care up until foetal viability, or about the 24th week of pregnancy.

Pro Choice voters lean dramatically towards the Democrats and Trump has become entangled in his messaging around abortion. This issue could be what hands Harris victory in Arizona and delivers Ruben Gallego into the Senate instead of Kari Lake.

Right now, Arizona’s fate is impossible to call despite what the bookies say.