2021 Independence Bowl Betting

Suffering two losses this season, the BYU Cougars are slated to move to the Big 12 in 2023, but could do so as early as next season.

The two losses in the regular season came against an excellent Baylor Bears team, but the other was more shocking, losing to Boise State which was the nail in the coffin for an even a possible College Football Playoff bid.

BYU had some solid wins this season, including two against Utah-based teams in the Utah State Aggies and another nationally ranked team in the Utah Utes.

Tied for the third-best offence in the FBS, BYU possesses a touchdown scoring machine in running back Tyler Allgier with 20 on the season. The NFL Draft eligible star averaged nearly six per tote, carrying the ball 249 times for 1,417 yards.

He is going to be a massive problem for the UAB defence.

Beyond Allgier, BYU may not have Zach Wilson behind center anymore, but Jaren Hall has played well, throwing just five interceptions, though he has less than 296 attempts. Even in their loss against Baylor, Hall played well, throwing for nearly 350 yards against a quality Baylor defence.

Continuing on the offensive side of the ball, the receivers may not have much in the targets department. Yet, two of the three leading target-getters, wide receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney, are excellent deep threats averaging 18.5 and 17.4 yards per reception, respectively. To further illustrate their knack for the deep ball, their average depth of target is at least 16 for both of them. This indicates that their numbers are more than just yards after the catch, but rather showing that Hall is not afraid to throw it down the field.

This is all because of an offensive line that is fantastic in both the pass and run game.

The defence for BYU is not all that intimidating, though they do have two excellent coverage players in linebacker Payton Wilgar and safety Malik Moore.

We’ve sung the praises of BYU and rightly so as they are not a nationally ranked team for no reason.

However, UAB, the 8-4 team that did suffer a loss to Rice this season, has some players to watch for in this one.

The main core is comprised of five players, with four of which come on the defensive side of the ball.

On offence, the team’s leading receiver is a tight end, Gerrit Prince, who may have just 32 catches on the season, but has more than 650 yards and eight touchdowns.

The offence doesn’t have much juice overall, but the defence makes up for that.

Alex Wright stands out and is actually a Day 2 competent NFL Draft prospect. Wright leads a UAB defence that ranks fifth in the country per PFF’s grading. He has a massive 51 total pressures. On the other side of the defensive line, UAB has a pass rusher to watch for in Nikia Eason. He’s played just 104 total snaps this season but has played well when he’s gotten the chance.

Since Eason, the team has seen great strides from slot cornerback Keondre Swoopes and safety Grayson Cash has allowed just 81 receiving yards all year long.

Still, though, as the betting lines indicate, UAB is a rightful underdog in this one.

Most sportsbooks have advance odds for the 2021 Independence Bowl, which as we mentioned favour BYU at +7. Beyond that, the total is set at 54.5 with BYU and UAB being -280 and +225, respectively.

• Spread: BYU -7
• Total: 54.5
• BYU Moneyline: -280
• UAB Moneyline: +225

Who won the most Independence Bowls?

Ole Miss and Louisiana Tech have both appeared in the game five times, but the Ole Miss Rebels lead the way with four wins in five tries.

• Ole Miss: 4 wins; 1986, 1998, 1999, 2002 (4-1 overall)

• Moneyline: Avoid BYU due to the large line, but feel free to sprinkle a bit on the underdogs for value sake.
• Spread: BYU will win big. Take the -7 now.
• Total: BYU will account for most of this, but UAB will do enough on offence to propel the total to the over
• First Quarter Prop: It’s wholly possible Allgier scores two touchdowns quickly. Take the over at -12.5.

Minus the moneyline, go all-in on the Cougars here. The Blazers did well on defence this year, but it was not against competition even close to this BYU offence. Wright is a great EDGE, but UAB will have trouble against the Allgier ground game and two receivers running deep down the field.