Are the Maple Leafs for Real? Or is This Just Another Tease?

Then there’s the annual media uproar, hand-wringing from the organization, self-reflection, the promises they will correct the organizational weakness, all while collecting paycheques and getting on with their summer.

But here’s why things might – just might – be different with this year’s version, going into games tonight against the Anaheim Ducks, at home, then Thursday in New York against the Rangers.

It was, ironically, with the Ducks in town tonight, a winless four-game swing through the west coast where the Leafs bottomed out this season. Calls were made for roster upheaval and coaching changes after that 4-3 loss in Anaheim. And the Ducks are terrible – last in the Pacific Division, 7-19-3. 

Since that October loss in Anaheim, the Leafs have gone 14-1-4, with a roster depleted by injuries. Now think about that.

The OLG’s Proline has the Leafs as favourites tonight, -2.5 on the Spread (Ducks +2.5), moneyline is Leafs 1.22, Ducks 4.50. 

What are the reasons why the Leafs are a safer bet this season?

Maturity of the Core 4

Look no further than the maturity and buy-in by the Core 4: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander.

What we mean by that has less to do with scoring stats, although Marner’s 22-game point streak (11 goals, 19 assists) has been the biggest individual storyline this season. Marner’s streak marks the 23rd point streak in NHL history to hit the 22-game mark. 

It has more to do with the team’s commitment to team defence. Marner’s a +4, Matthews at +14, Nylander at +10, Tavares a zero. The Leafs have the 12th-best penalty-killing percentage in the NHL – 79.8 per cent – and have the third-best goals against per game in the league – 2.38. 

That’s not easy to do with Jake Muzzin and Morgan Reilly, and until recently, TJ Brodie, out with injuries, depleting your defence (Jordie Benn, also out with an upper-body injury, took part in full practice yesterday with the team and looks to be close to returning).

“We’re connecting on a lot of levels right now, from our D zone, neutral zone to offence,” Marner said after the team’s 5-4 OT win over the Calgary Flames Saturday night. 

Perhaps Flames coach Darryl Sutter said it best about the Core 4 here the other day – that they have clearly matured and grown as a leadership group. 

That’s been seen perhaps the most with Nylander. Saturday night, Nylander posted the first five-point game of his NHL career. He and Rasmus Sandin were on the ice for a team-high 18 Toronto shot attempts at 5-on-5. 

Nylander has been a whipping boy in these parts, but he seems reborn playing on the top line with Matthews and Michael Bunting on the left side. Is he playoff worthy, though, when games get tighter and more physical?

His coach, Sheldon Keefe, seems to think so. So does the new goalie, Matt Murray. Nylander’s emerging into that top tier of player and is a big reason to keep an eye on the team going into 2023. He’s had a point in all but six of his team’s games this season.

Matthews is Heating Up

There was talk through October and November about how Matthews seemed a little off, but all that has gone away. One of Keefe’s best strategical moves was busting up the Matthews-Marner line, slotting Marner next to Tavares.

The refresh up front helped everyone, including the aforementioned Nylander. 

Matthews led the team in shots (eight) and shot attempts (12) in that last game against Calgary.

Matthews is on a seven-game point streak (six goals, seven assists), with goals in nine of his last 14 games. That’s 10 less than league leader Connor McDavid. He is 12th in points, but look for him to start climbing.

Goaltender Tandem Has Been a Step Up

Is the goaltending tandem of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov for real? Back-to-back shutouts against Dallas and Los Angeles last week might be another indicator that it is. 

And don’t underestimate that commitment to team defence that has their shots on goal number seventh lowest in the NHL at 29.5.

Goals against is 2.41, third in the league. Nitpick all you want about the overtime goal Murray gave up in that overtime loss to the Lightning just over a week ago, but Murray, as the No. 1, has been Steady Eddie since coming back from that adductor injury in November: 7-1-2, 2.50 GAA, .926 save percentage. Samsonov has a 1.87 GAA (eight wins), second behind the Boston Bruins’ Linus Ullmark (Ullmark’s played 19 games, Samsonov 10).

If these two guys stay healthy, and the Leafs stay committed to defence as they get bodies back from the IL (lots to be said for a team battening down the hatches like the Leafs have done when so many of their key guys got hurt), for sure this year’s version feels different compared to years past. 

Next up, we’ll look at trade possibilities since the window to win with the Core 4 is fast closing. FanDuel still has the Colorado Avalanche as Cup favourites, at +550, followed by Boston (+650), then Vegas and the Leafs at +900.