Betting Advice for March Madness Sweet 16: In-Game Wagering

With the March Madness Sweet 16 about to tip off, let’s take a look at how to take advantage of scoring volatilities using the in-game betting lines and one premium best bet that I have taken to the window.

(11) Michigan vs. (2) Villanova

• South Region
• AT&T Center, San Antonio
• 7:29 p.m. ET, Thursday

The last time Villanova played at the San Antonio Regional was 2018 when beat Michigan on the way to the national championship.

This Villanova team is flying under the betting community radar and the value bet in this matchup is with them. My predictive models have Villanova installed as an 9.5-point favourite.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

I am on Villanova in this matchup and have bet them pre-flop (before the game starts) for 50% of my normal wager size for a 4% best bet.

Most professional bettors use a 3, 4, and 5% max bet grading, representing 3, 4, and 5% of the total bankroll. So, if a professional has a $100,000 bankroll, the maximum financial risk is never to exceed $5,000 for any single bet.

The first pre-flop bet accounted for 50% of the 4% bet on Villanova. There remain blocks of 25% of that 4% amount left to be filled if the game flows cooperate with our strategy.

So, if Michigan scores 10 or more unanswered points in any one stretch during the first half, I will add 25% at the prevailing line available.

Almost always, a timeout after this happens. The timeout provides ample opportunity to check multiple sportsbooks to acquire the best line possible.

I only add the 25% during the first half. Executing live in-game bets in the second half has an increased risk because the game is becoming shorter, which requires any bet to be correct quickly.

The other 25% amount will be executed if Villanova is priced at pick-em at any point during the first half. If Michigan runs off 10 straight unanswered points, I will execute the 50% amount if Villanova is at pick-em or possibly an underdog.

(4) Providence vs. (1) Kansas

• Midwest Region
• United Center, Chicago
• 7:29 p.m. ET, Friday

Kansas is favoured by 7.5 points in this game. This live in-game betting strategy will focus on Providence.

Once again, the strategy is to bet 50% of your bet size pre-flop and then look to add 25% if Providence is lined at +13.5 points and/or Kansas scores 10 or more unanswered points.

If you have never done this sort of strategy before, I can promise you it will feel like you are taking your cash and lighting it on fire and watching it go up in smoke.

However, the game of basketball has more scoring volatility because no other sport has the scoring volume.

So, remind yourself that the reason you are adding to your underdog bet that will look terrible at the time, that Providence will answer the call at some point and narrow the Kansas lead before halftime. I have seen this occur time and time again in the NCAA Tournament.

What About Live Totals Betting?

The higher the total is, especially the tournament, the greater the expected scoring volatility.

For instance, a game lined at 155 points is going to have a greater probability that at some point during the game, both teams will have had leads and even double-digit leads.

In last year’s tournament, I created a 32-point middle between my live betting the Over-Under.

Gonzaga was favoured by 12.5 points against Creighton and there was a 159 posted total. At the 11:03 mark, Gonzaga had built a 27-20 lead, but within 50 seconds, Creighton scored five unanswered points to make it 27-25 with 10:19 left.

That pace was a frenzy, to say the least, and I was able to bet Under 168 points during that timeout.

Then the game slowed as if someone had put truckloads of mud on the floor and the total went below 140 points and hit 135 at the 12:08 mark of the second half with the score 56-42.

So, from the 10:19 mark of the first half when 52 points had been scored to the 12:08 mark of the second half, only 46 points were scored, or roughly 2.5 points per minute.

The game opened with more than double the scoring rate at 5.25 points per minute. So, this is a case study of not betting the game and then watching to grab these extremely fast and slow scoring rates and put extra cash in your pocket.