Bills Heavy Favourite in Chicago Despite the Frigid Forecast

That says a lot about how bad the Bears are — losers of seven straight. The weather forecast for Chicago tomorrow is a high of 11 degrees Fahrenheit, and a low of 5, and will feel like anywhere between -9 degrees to -20. 

Forecasters are talking about 20-25 mile-per-hour winds for the game. Coldest in Soldier Field history with the wind chill? It might end up being that.

There’s a treacherous winter storm that’s already begun across Canada and the United States, so all eyes are on the total. Many sportsbooks opened at 42, but that’s heading south. 

“It’s going to be cold, going to be windy,” said Bills safety Jordan Poyer. “Obviously, we’re going to be playing on grass, a different type of field compared to the past few weeks. I am sure the ground will be super hard. So we’ll have to work out the right type of cleats to put on. We have a lot of trust (in the equipment staff) to get it right. It’s a mindset. You have to be ready to play. They have to play in it too.”

Said tight end Dawson Knox: “If anybody is used to the cold, it’s us, so we’ll be ready for it.”

Again, according to BetRivers today, the game has also attracted the largest handle of the totals in the 30s. (It barely qualifies with a 39.5.) The Under has hit in eight consecutive Bills’ away games when they were favored. 

Sixty-two per cent of the bets today at DraftKings is on Under 40.5. They’ll be adjusting that up to kickoff.

What does it all mean, for the standings? A win over the Bears (1 p.m. ET start time) or a Miami loss at home to the Packers would give the Bills their third AFC East title in a row – the first time they would have accomplished that since the heady Jim Kelly years, from 1988 to 1991. 

The Bills would then turn their attention to wrapping up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They are currently in first place at 11-3, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (10-4). The Bills play the Bengals a week from Monday. They wrap up the season against the New England Patriots.

A difference-maker against Chicago will be the ability of the Bills’ defence to stop Bears quarterback Justin Fields, since running is going to be the priority, and not many people do that better than Fields. The Bills' defence last week gave up 188 yards in rushing to Miami. 

Fields has 1,000 yards on 143 carries – tops among quarterbacks and seventh overall in the NFL. His average of 7.0 yards per carry leads the NFL (Bills QB Josh Allen is third among quarterbacks at 705 yards, and a 6.5 average, including 77 yards on 10 carries in the frigid cold and later-game snow last weekend in their 32-29 win over the Dolphins).

So that handle is a little surprising – Allen will run, but their two running backs – Devin Singletary and James Cook – combined for fewer yards than Allen tallied against Miami. In the conditions, for bettors, that’s not going to get it done. They’ll need much more from those two. 

The Bears, thanks to Fields, have the NFL’s best rushing offence, averaging 186.9 rushing yards per game, and 5.39 yards per carry. And they get Khalil Herbert back off of injured reserve, an explosive runner who had been averaging six yards per carry, to complement their No. 1 run option David Montgomery, who’s a downhill runner (694 rushing yards, 4.0 average per carry).

They also have the league’s worst passing attack, and Allen was still able to go 25-of-40 for 304 yards and four touchdowns in those poor conditions last weekend in Buffalo.

DraftKings has the spread at Bills -9. A lot of the game for those putting their money on the Bills will come down to Buffalo’s ability to stop that run. Do they consider the Bears’ poor passing attack and load up against the run with three linebackers?