How the Trucker Protests Have Affected Justin Trudeau's Odds of Winning in 2025

Justin Trudeau’s odds of winning the next Canadian election in 2025 have worsened since the Ottawa trucker protest began at the start of the year – but the prime minister would still secure a majority if a vote were held today.

Trudeau’s government has been caught in a political maelstrom as protests in the Canadian capital continue into a fourth week.

More than 400 trucks have caused gridlock in parts of the city in protest of vaccine mandates. This has since fueled further protests against COVID-19 restrictions and the parked trucks have been dubbed the ‘Freedom Convoy.’

Canada has invoked an emergency law to break up the remaining protesters and have threatened to seize trucks, suspend insurance and even freeze bank accounts of those involved.

This has cast an intense spotlight on Trudeau himself – the PM who called a snap election last summer only to increase his majority in Parliament by five seats.

Justin Trudeau Latest Odds

Bookmakers have responded to the continuing political crisis in Canada by cutting their political odds on Trudeau’s Liberal Party winning the next election.

At the start of the year, some bookmakers gave the Liberals a 96% likelihood of winning the most seats at the next election. Those odds, however, have fallen in the past two months and now sit at roughly 82% (-456). What’s more, the bookies give Trudeau’s party just a 73% (-270) chance of securing the 170-seat majority.

That is a significant shift in such a short time and coming so soon after an election victory. It highlights the fine balance Trudeau and his party are treading over the protests.

Indeed, during the past few days, the prime minister had been encouraged to intervene following reports of roadblocks spreading to crucial border crossings with the United States. It got so bad at one stage that car manufacturers Ford and Toyota were forced to temporarily close because parts weren’t crossing over the border.

Police have since begun clearing roadblocks and the protests are starting to die down in areas other than Ottawa. But the ill-feeling in the capital hasn’t dissipated.

Trudeau Needs To Tread Carefully

Indeed, the decision to invoke emergency laws to suppress the protests once and for all has garnered a mixed reaction across Canada. CNN reports that a “strong majority” oppose the convoy protests, yet being seen to be too heavy-handed could inflame the opposite sentiment.

A police crackdown on Feb. 17 resulted in two of the protest’s leaders being taken into custody. The following day Canada’s House of Commons and Senate were suspended as law enforcement began to break up the demonstrations by force.

The move is likely to draw criticism from opposition leaders, who have already accused Trudeau’s government of exacerbating the issue. Opposition leader Candice Bergen branded the emergency laws an “unprecedented sledgehammer” that will further divide Canadians.

How Ottawa and Canadians, in general, respond to the latest efforts to clear the protests remains to be seen. But with one police chief having already resigned and tensions running high in the capital, Trudeau will need to tread carefully if he is to maintain the Liberal Party’s polling majority.