How Will Bills Fare Against Bengals in Highly Anticipated AFC Divisional Round Game?

How Weather Could Affect Bengals at Bills

The third-seeded Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) take on the second-seeded Buffalo Bills (13-3) in a game that will feature two of the hottest quarterbacks in the game – Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. Burrow was fifth in the NFL in passing this season – 4,475 yards. Allen was seventh – 4,283.

They’re calling for winds between 8-9 mph. Temperatures will be a high of 37 degrees and there’s a 70 per cent chance of snow, around an inch. That could, of course, change by kickoff. 

But considering the winter Buffalo has had so far, you can understand why people are skittish about that, and the potential impacts it would have on the game.

DraftKings opened the Over/Uunder at 50.5 points, but that number has dropped to 48.5 with conditions as a factor. BetRivers has the O/U at 48. PointsBet Canada has it at 48 as well. Proline has the O/U at 49.5. 

So what we are saying is this: You can have two of the games top QBs, but weather can nullify any advantages teams think they have there. We always focus on Allen’s running ability in these scenarios, as a fullback-like complement to running backs Devin Singletary and James Cook. The Bills had the seventh-best rushing attack in the NFL this season – 2,232 yards, 5.2 yard average, 139.5 yards per game average. 

How Bengals and Bills Match Up

Allen finished the season at 762 yards, and a 6.1-yard average – 34th overall in the NFL. But it scares the hell out of bettors most times Allen takes off with the ball, with those injury nightmare scenarios.

So this one will be won in the trenches. The Bills' defence will have an advantage since the Bengals' offensive line has been crushed by injuries – left tackle Jonah Williams is the latest, suffering a dislocated kneecap last weekend against the Baltimore Ravens. He’s week-to-week and is a big unknown for Sunday. 

The Bengals are already without right guard Alex Cappa and right tackle La’el Collins. If Collins doesn’t play, how difficult can the Bills’ defensive line make things for Burrow? The Bills hit the QB 11 times in the Miami Wild Card game last Sunday and had seven tackles for a loss.

“They do a great job of getting that football out of that quarterback’s hands to protect that offensive line,” Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier said this week. “We’ll have our hands full to get him to hold the ball. But that’s the goal – get him to hold it so we can get after the quarterback.”

Also, on the injury front, Bills CB Dane Jackson is day-to-day after banging up his knee last weekend against Miami. S Micah Hyde will not play against Cincinnati, the Bills are saying.

Both teams are riding win streaks – the Bills at eight, the Bengals at nine. 

Bengals at Bills Pick

The Bills, though, played a sloppy game against the Dolphins, a game many predicted they should have dominated more. 

Allen had three turnovers – he threw 14 picks this season, tied for third in the NFL, and too many were in the red zone. The Bills QB fumbled the ball three times against Miami, including one that led to a TD. And the Bills beat Miami by just three points (the spread going in was 14). 

DraftKings currently has the Spread for Sunday at Bills -5. We think the Bills will win the game (interceptions aside, we keep coming back to Allen’s record as a playoff QB – 64.4 completion percentage, 2,070 yards passing, 104.6 passer rating) but it’s going to be tight – probably the best game of the weekend. 

The Bills’ sloppy play of late is a concern, so we’ll take the Bengals and the points.