Leafs Wake Up Favourites Going Into Series With Panthers

The Toronto Maple Leafs woke up this morning to the rather stunning surprise that they won’t be playing the Boston Bruins in Round 2 of the NHL playoffs.

After a massive 135-point regular season, the Bruins were the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup going into the playoffs but are this morning packing up their skates after a 4-3 overtime loss in Game 7 of their series with the Florida Panthers last night. 

Many people had a double-take when that final result headline splashed across their phone.

So instead of flying to Boston to take on the Bruins for Game 1 of Round 2 tomorrow night, the Panthers will be flying to Toronto.

The odds are all topsy-turvy this morning after the first-round upset. The defending champs, the Colorado Avalanche, are also done after falling 2-1 to the upstart Seattle Kraken in Game 7 of their series last night. As such, the Stanley Cup betting odds radically differ from a week ago.

Here are your Stanley Cup futures this morning, according to BetMGM, and it’s going to take a few minutes to digest these: 

• Leafs 4.75
• Edmonton Oilers 5.00
• Dallas Stars 6.00
• Vegas Golden Knights 7.00
• Carolina Hurricanes 8.00
• Florida Panthers 11.0

Two things fundamentally shifted the odds in the Leafs’ favour: First, a John Tavares overtime goal Saturday night in Game 6 against the Tampa Bay Lightning slayed the playoff mental demons that had been impeding the franchise. You must return to 2004 for the last time they won a playoff series. Second, the Bruins are now out of the way.

This morning, Seamus Magee, sports trader at BetMGM, said the Bruins series was a “good outcome for the sportsbook.” Man, what an understatement. 

The Bruins had the highest ticket percentage for the Stanley Cup at 28.1 percent (and the highest handle percentage at 42.7 percent). 

The Avalanche was also one of the favorites among bettors at 12.1 percent. 

Tomorrow night, BetMGM has the Leafs as favourites – Moneyline is Leafs 1.65, Panthers 2.25; the Spread is Leafs -1.5 (2.55), Panthers +1.5 (1.53); and the Total is 6.5 (1.87 on the Over, 1.95 on the Under).

Key Stats

The stat we are looking at is the 11 goals the Bruins surrendered over the last two games of their series with Florida. In their last visit to Toronto, the game turned on a very loud and public rant by Panthers coach Paul Maurice after his team had bumbled their start to the game. Maurice blew his top, and the team responded and won the game. That was a chapter in a story that saw the Panthers come together under their coach during the season’s second half. They had to push for a playoff spot for the right to take on the Bruins – and went 24-13-4 in the second half.

But the Leafs took three of four games against the Panthers this year and had a home-ice advantage. Their power play was clicking against Tampa – at 28.6 percent.

The Panthers were 23^rd in the NHL in penalty-killing efficiency during the regular season. 

The Leafs have had more rest than the Panthers, and we expect the emotion of being on home ice after breaking their streak of playoff futility to be the story in Game 1. 

Best bet: Leafs Spread -1.5 (2.55) for Game 1.