MLB Odds: Blue Jays Still A Favourite Among Oddsmakers

It’s a little rich watching all the behind-the-scenes choreography by baseball’s puppeteers, days after the guts of Toronto sports fans were torn out, likely by the people who run Shohei Ohtani’s camp.

False narratives were clearly leaked and two baseball journalists – including Jon Morosi – wrote Friday that Ohtani was on a plane to Toronto that afternoon to ink a new deal with the Rogers Communications-owned Blue Jays. Ohtani of course signed Saturday with the L.A. Dodgers for $700 million. 

Baseball journalist Tom Verducci wrote after that deal was announced that the news that Ohtani was flying to Toronto rattled the Dodgers and likely forced them to up their financial offer. That’s no conspiracy theory. Count me in as a believer in that. The truth is likely that Ohtani was going to sign with the Dodgers all along and the Jays were used to eke out a better deal.

Jays fans should remember that when Ohtani arrives here with the Dodgers for a April 26-28 series and boo the hell out of him. Don’t listen to the guilt brigade, that it’s not the “nice” thing to do, that fans need to turn the cheek. There are no niceties in any of this. We were played. It was dirty, money-grubbing tawdry business-first capitalism at work. You want a feel-good story? Get a dog.

Or this beauty take, by Canadian baseball journalist Richard Griffin today, that the narrative that Ohtani deferred $68 million of his $70 million annual salary was so that the team would have more money to chase other players and further bolster the lineup is bogus. Griffin says on X today that it was more about Ohtani avoiding onerous state taxes for ten years. That’s what his agents at CAA were really shooting for. Again, it’s all business.

For Toronto sports fans, it took them back to the painful memories of Kawhi Leonard’s departure from the Raptors to the L.A. Clippers in the summer of 2019.

Now the messaging and narratives coming out via media types is the Jays were close with their Ohtani offer. Maybe those reports are sourced from the Roger and Jays management side. 

They certainly have a big problem. Rogers and team management swung and missed mightily on their whale. As of today they have to justify to the Pinot Grigio crowd shelling out $30,000 for a field level seat for 81 games in the spanking new lower bowl at Rogers Centre that they should be excited about a comeback season by pitcher Mitch White.

But still amid all of this, the Jays have a good team, even another playoff team. That’s despite current holes at third base, outfield, and at designated hitter.

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Sportsbooks Futures Bets

Oddmakers feel it too. Yesterday, according to BetMGM, looking at World Series futures, the Jays are at 16.00, following the Dodgers (6.50), Atlanta Braves (7.50), New York Yankees (10.50), Texas Rangers (11.00), and the Houston Astros (11.00). 

Now on Friday alone, with the Ohtani-to-Toronto reports buzzing about, the top three most bet teams by tickets were the Jays (74.3 per cent), Yankees (7.3 per cent), and the Dodgers (3.7 per cent). By handle it was the Jays (84.7 per cent), Atlanta Braves (5.3 per cent) and Yankees (4.5 per cent). 

Since the Ohtani news on Saturday, the Dodgers (63.2 per cent), Yankees (10.4 per cent) and Jays (4.9 per cent) are the three most bet teams by tickets and the Dodgers (63.6 per cent), Yankees (18.3 per cent) and Jays (10.9 per cent) the top three by handle.

The Jays have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, but those odds suggest that traders know big improvements are coming.

All people in Toronto care about is winning. Yes, Ohtani would have been a wonderful, shiny new bauble, and would have instantly addressed their hitting shortfalls. But as Brad Pitt, playing Billy Beane in Moneyball, said, we can fix it, but in the aggregate – so to speak, in this case, because the Jays are no Oakland A’s. 

If they can fill those holes, address their hitting deficiencies and take a serious run at the Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, people will flush away the distaste that’s built up over past four days.

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Potential Fits for the Jays on the Free Agent Market

Let's have a look at the contendors in the free agent market according to online sportsbooks

Yoshinobu Yamamoto: According to NorthStar Bets, the New York Mets are favourites to sign the front-line starter from Japan, at 3.50, followed by the Yankees (4.00), Boston Red Sox (5.00), Dodgers (5.75), then “Any Other Team” at 7.00. That signing would free up a trade of Alek Manoah or Ricky.

Ricky Tiedemann for a big bat. Maybe San Diego is looking to dump more salary?

Cody Bellinger: If management is allowed to even spend a fraction of the annual salary they allocated for Ohtani, then they should go hard at Bellinger (.307, 26 HR, 97 RBIs, .881 OPS with the Chicago Cubs last season), who brings power from the left side of the plate and would take one of the outfield spots (then shift Daulton Varsho to centre?). 

Matt Chapman: Do the Jays bring back Chapman, at a price tag north of $100 million? He’s 31, just won his fourth Gold Glove and is elite defensively. But Chapman at the plate was too often where rallies went to die last season (.244, 17 HRs, 54 RBIs, .755 OPS). And that was after a scorching start in April where he hit .384, with 15 doubles and five homeruns, and was named AL Player of the Month. That’s a tough call for Jays management. Can new offensive coordinator Don Mattingly salvage him?

Other possibilities: Rhys Hoskins or J.D. Martinez for DH, bring back Kevin Kiermaier for centrefield, even Canadian Joey Votto for DH,1B. NorthStar Bets in their reporting today even tossed out third baseman Jose Ramirez from the Cleveland Guardians, who is owed over $150 million, since the Guardians have payroll questions.

Learn more about MLB betting here.

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