NFL Betting Advice and Pick for Commanders at Bears

Washington at Chicago

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video 

Line: Bears –1 | Total: 38.5 points

The Commanders (1-4 straight-up (SU), 1-4 against the spread, 2-3 Over-Under) will be on the road to take on the Bears (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 2-3 Over-Under). 

Before the start of the season, the line was Washington being a 1.5-point favorite before moving to the current line of the Bears favored by 1. The total opened at 40.5 points and has moved lower to 38.5 points amid 70% of the tickets bet and 78% of the money wagered on the Under.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Bears using the moneyline.

• The Commanders are 5-15 SU and 5-14-1 ATS in the first half in the past two seasons.
• The Bears are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS following back-to-back road losses over the past 10 seasons.
• Commanders coach Ron Rivera is 12-25 ATS coming off a home loss in all games he has coached in his career.
• From the predictive model, the Bears are 106-33 SU and 96-40-3 ATS for 71% winning bets when they have outgained their opponent by .5 or more yards per play since 1989 and 12-5 ATS over the past five seasons.

I am betting on the Chicago Bears using the moneyline -125 as offered at DraftKings.

Be sure to check out the betting system on the total of this game on the Twitter feed that has hit 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.