NFL Free Agency: Where are bettors putting their money?

What NFL teams have made the more seismic changes and how has that impacted futures betting?

The league’s free agency period started at 4 p.m. March 13, with plenty of the NFL’s big names landing huge deals, shifting teams. 

And it’s not like the news machine on this front is done. There are some big names still out there – LB Jadeveon Clowney, CB Xavien Howard, CB Stephon Gilmore, QB Ryan Tannehill, CB Tre’Davious White, WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Talking to some sportsbook traders, where is the money going, based on the player movements? 

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Bettors got their money down quickly on the teams that made the bolder moves – The Eagles signing RB Saquon Barkley to a three-deal, $37.5 million contract, the Steelers signing QB Russell Wilson for one year, $1.2 million, then trading for QB Justin Fields, the Ravens signing RB Derrick Henry to a two-year, $16 million deal, the Texas making a slew of moves, led by trading for Pro Bowl running back, Joe Mixon, to complement QB C.J. Stroud, and QB Kirk Cousins ditching Minnesota for Atlanta and the Falcons (four years, $180 million).

What Were the More Impactful Moves?

The Jets signed a new left tackle, Tyron Smith, to a one-year $20 million deal, filling a void there. The Jaguars picked up WR Gabe Davis in a three-year, $39 million deal. The Dolphins picked up CB Kendall Fuller for two years, $16.5 million after releasing Howard in a cap-saving move. 

The Titans made a big play for WR Calvin Ridley, four years, for $92 million. The Commanders added a vet for their defence – LB Bobby Wagner, one year, $8.5 million. The 49ers bring in DE Leonard Floyd for two years, $24 million to fill the edge rusher role opposite Nick Bosa. The Bucs brought back QB Baker Mayfield and WR Mike Evans. The list goes on.

According to BetMGM, no current signing or trade (Wilson, Mayfield, Chris Jones, etc.) has caused Super Bowl sports betting line movement. Since the Wilson move, however, 38 per cent of bets (the highest) are on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl (they were 81.00 before the signing, and 81.00 after).

Overall, on the NFL odds front, the Chiefs have been generating the highest handle (27.9%), double the money number compared to the next in line, the Lions, who are at 12.4%.

And this from a PointsBet Canada source: “In terms of free agency, it looks like the Steelers have seen the biggest bump, with decent action on them to win the AFC. Overall, the top picks in Ontario are still the Chiefs, Lions, then Bengals.”

Interesting since none of those teams did anything overly flashy on the free agent front.

Did the Bills Regress?

And the Buffalo Bills, for Ontario bettors? Well, that was painful, wasn’t it? 

The Bills had to say goodbye to some familiar faces, in cap saving moves – Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, Mitch Morse.

But look at the betting numbers. The Bills sit third (5.4%) after the Chiefs (17.9%) and the Lions (12.5%) in highest ticket percentage at BetMGM and sit third after the Chiefs and Lions in handle (8.0%). The Bills are 13.00 to win the Super Bowl currently, after the 49ers (6.00), Chiefs (7.50), the Ravens (10.00), and Lions (13.00).

Say what now? Bettors clearly still have faith in the core of that team - led by QB Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Dalton Knox, and others - that they have a few more kicks at the crown, and they have faith in GM Brandon Beane to backfill the roster after those high-profile exits. How many more shots they have left – that’s a whole other question.

In free agency the Bills signed WR Curtis Samuel to replace Davis, and brought in WR Mack Hollins, and signed LB Nicholas Morrow, the former Eagle, and QB Mitch Trubisky. DT DaQuan Jones, CB Taron Johnson, G David Edwards, P Matt Haack, TE Quintin Morris, LT Dion Dawkins, RB Ty Johnson, DB Cam Lewis, S Taylor Rapp, and DE AJ Espenesa were all re-signed.