NFL Wild Card Betting Picks, Prediction & Odds

It's crunch time in the NFL as the postseason gets underway this weekend with the always entertaining Wild Card Round of the play-offs. 

Top seeds the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions have a bye through to next week's Divisional Round, but for the remaining 12 teams, it's win or go home.

We've picked out our best bet for each of this weekend's Wild Card games on betting sites with the five selections eligible to be combined to make a parlay that returns at +4494.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Tips

Chargers @ Texans pick: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 handicap - +155 Bwin

Steelers @ Ravens pick: Lamar Jackson under 217.5 passing yards vs Steelers -110 Bet365

Broncos @ Bills pick: Josh Allen to throw two touchdowns and Buffalo Bills win - +106 RTBet

Packers @ Eagles pick: Under 45.5 points -110 Betway

Commanders @ Buccaneers pick: Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown - +140 Bet365

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers Betting Prediction

(4.30pm ET)

The Chargers travel to face the Texans at NRG Stadium in the first game of Wild Card Weekend. Coach Jim Harbaugh has had an excellent first season in LA, steering his team into the play-offs with an 11-6 record, finishing behind only the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. 

Quarterback Justin Herbert has been efficient and avoided costly turnovers, aided by a strong running game with JK Dobbins leading the way behind a powerful offensive line. 

They face a Texans side that capitalized on a weak AFC South division to secure the fourth seed. QB CJ Stroud arguably had a sophomore slump as he failed to capture the magic of his rookie season. 

Still, Houston are in the mix, but we’re not expecting a great deal out of a side that had a 1-5 record against play-off teams this season, including a 31-2 defeat to the Baltimore Ravens. 

The Chargers have been synonymous with choking in the past, but with Harbaugh’s presence on the sideline we’re backing them to take care of business. 

The visitors are three-point favorites, but we like the Chargers to better that performance and the Bolts are +155 to win by a touchdown at -6.5 handicap at Bwin.

Chargers @ Texans pick: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 handicap - +155 Bwin

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Betting Prediction

(8.00pm ET)

Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has plenty to prove heading into the postseason after going 2-4 in his previous play-off appearances. 

NFL betting sites expect him to improve on that record with the Ravens double-digit favorites with several bookmakers for a meeting with a Pittsburgh Steelers side easily brushed aside by Baltimore just before Christmas. 

That victory was part of a four-game winning streak that helped Baltimore go 12-5 and secure the AFC North title, while the Steelers finished 10-7 after dropping four straight, thanks largely to a dip on offense. 

However, the Steelers defense tends to play Jackson tough and have held him to 207 passing yards in each game this season, way below his season average.

Jackson was having a rough day in the most recent game against Pittsburgh before their top corner Joey Porter Jr. went out and he won’t have his favorite target, Zay Flowers, for this meeting after he was ruled out with a knee injury.

Jackson has only twice thrown for over 218 yards in eight games against Pittsburgh and with Derrick Henry to lean on, expect the Ravens to try to do more damage on the ground than through the air.

Steelers @ Ravens pick: Lamar Jackson under 217.5 passing yards vs Steelers -110 Bet365

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Betting Prediction

(1pm ET)

The Buffalo Bills finished the regular season with an impressive 13-4 record and a fifth AFC East title in a row, but the Super Bowl is the prize that all in Orchard Park crave.

Buffalo have fallen short at the Divisional Round in the last three seasons, including two defeats to their old foes, the Chiefs.

Quarterback Josh Allen has been nothing short of outstanding in the 2024 season and is a strong contender, along with Baltimore Ravens quarterback Jackson, to win the NFL MVP award.

Allen has combined his usual swashbuckling play with more control in clutch situations, but that skill will be tested by a stoic Denver defense, featuring All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain.

The Broncos, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, have been one of the surprise packages of the season, finishing as the seventh seed. Head coach Sean Payton’s experience has been vital, and he knows a trick or two in the play-offs.

But Allen notched 28 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing scores over the course of the season. His brilliance may be too much for a Broncos team that are not ready to compete with the AFC’s best yet. 

After looking at new betting sites, we like the odds for Allen to notch two passing touchdowns in a win for the Bills at odds of +106.

Broncos @ Bills pick: Josh Allen to throw two touchdowns and Buffalo Bills win - +106 RTBet

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles Betting Prediction

(4.30pm ET, Fox)

These two combined for 63 points when they met in Week 1 of the regular season in a game played on a Friday night in Brazil. 

Fast-forward to a chilly Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia and that match couldn’t feel any less significant when it comes to forecasting the outcome of arguably the standout game of the Wild Card Round.

Both defenses have improved significantly since the start of the season with the Eagles arguably the best defensive unit in the NFL. They sit top of the EPA (expected points against) per play metric since Week 10 of the season, while the Packers are fourth. 

Both teams are run-heavy, leading to Eagles' running-back Saqoun Barkley cracking the 2,000-yard rushing mark, and will be looking to put together long, methodical drives.

The need to run the ball for both the Packers and Eagles is even more imperative due to injuries to starting quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. 

Hurts returned to practice this week following a concussion, while Love is playing with a sore elbow. The Packers QB also won’t have one of his biggest down field threats in Christian Watson, who is out with a knee injury.

This total opened at 47.5 on betting apps but has been bet down since then. It may still drop further with neither side having allowed more than 18 points in the last three weeks, while the under was 10-7 in Eagles’ games this season.

Packers @ Eagles pick: Under 45.5 points -110 Betway

Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Prediction

(8pm ET, NBC)

The showdown between the Commanders and Buccaneers could be the closest game of Wild Card Weekend. 

Washington have a superior record, finishing 12-5 with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels enjoying an impressive debut NFL campaign. His heroics have been crucial in steering Dan Quinn’s men into the post-season and they arrive in Florida riding a five-game winning streak.

The Buccaneers have also been on a roll and head into the play-offs with momentum, beating the New Orleans Saints in Week 18 to clinch the AFC South with their sixth win out of seven games.

The Bucs beat the Commanders in their first meeting in Week 1 with a dominant performance, but the NFC East outfit are a better team now.

Daniels has grown as a passer and his connection with wide receiver Terry McLaurin has been instrumental in their winning run. McLaurin has recorded a career-high 13 touchdowns this season, including seven in his last six appearances. 

As this game could be too close to call, we like McLaurin's odds as an anytime touchdown selection at +140.

Commanders @ Buccaneers pick: Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown - +140 Bet365