2021 Alamo Bowl betting

We cannot talk about Oklahoma without talking about former head coach Lincoln Riley. Riley, who was a potential NFL head coaching candidate, accepted a position to become the new head coach of the USC Trojans at the end of November.

In his absence, the Sooners will head into this game with Bob Stoops as their interim head football coach until Brent Venable takes over starting next season and for seasons to come.

Also surrounding the team is the transfer of quarterback Spencer Rattler to the University of South Carolina, who was benched earlier in the season, in favour of Caleb Williams who provided a spark to the offence that we saw immediately.

In relief of Rattler in Week 6 after his 111 passing yards and one interception showing, Williams came in to save the game, throwing for 212 yards on 25 attempts and added two touchdowns.

From Week 7 through the end of the season, Williams would go on to show the Oklahoma program what the future holds, throwing for 1,356 yards, 16 passing touchdowns, and four games with at least 80 rushing yards—remember, Williams is just a freshman.

Against Texas Tech in Week 9, Williams threw for 402 yards and six touchdowns, marking the best game of his season. There was a point in the season where Williams actually had some Heisman hype, but he did start to see his high caliber of play diminish a bit, completing just nine passes against Baylor (Week 11) and eight against Iowa State (Week 12), failing to throw for more than 142 yards in either game.

For Oklahoma, there are opt-outs to consider. These include four defensive starters in linebacker Brian Asamoah, edge rusher Nik Bonitto, and defensive linemen Isaiah Thomas and Perrion Winfrey who will not play. However, the team will have running back Kennedy Brooks.

For the four defensive starters opting out, Oklahoma will need to make up for their combined 129 quarterback pressures, per Pro Football Focus, which include eight sacks a piece from Bonitto and Thomas and another six from Winfrey. Bonitto has a chance to land in the first round of the upcoming NFL Draft on the back of his 52 total pressures.

Keeping Brooks in the lineup will continue to help this offence flourish on the back of his 10 touchdown season, with over 1,100 rushing yards on just 183 carries. In his first start of the season against Texas, Brooks ran for 217 yards on 25 carries and also scored twice. After this game, Brooks had three more games of at least 115 rushing yards.

The 10-2 Sooners will be without some key pieces heading into this matchup, but will still have the offence intact.

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While he won’t be here for this game, former Auburn Tigers quarterback Bo Nix will be transferring to Oregon where we can expect him to compete for the starting job next season.

The coaching staff has seen a multitude of changes.

The 10-3 record program is moving on from Mario Cristobal as a head football coach to Dan Lanning. For the College Football Alamo Bowl, though, the Oregon Ducks will go with interim head coach Bryan McClendon.

Additionally, they will have a new offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, offensive line coach, inside linebackers coach, and safeties coach. There could be more, but that is what has been announced thus far. Right now, the new offensive and defensive coordinators have been announced. Former Florida State offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham comes over to replace Joe Moorhead (who’s heading to Akron to be the head coach) as well as former Baylor Bears safeties and special teams coach Matthew Powledge comes over as the new defensive coordinator.

With the coaching changes addressed, let’s turn our attention to the key players who will be not only part of this game but opting out either due to the NFL Draft or entering the transfer portal.

As of now, edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, the team’s best player, and perennial top-three NFL draft pick has opted out of the game. Thibodeaux has been an absolute force throughout his career at Oregon and this season. The 6-foot-5, 260-pound edge rusher totaled nine sacks and had a pass-rushing grade of 91.5 out of 100 at Pro Football Focus despite suffering through an ankle injury throughout the season.

In addition, cornerback DJ James and defensive tackle Jayson Jones have entered the transfer portal and another cornerback for the team, Mykael Wright, has opted out to enter the NFL Draft. James was one of Oregon’s top-performing corners, allowing just one touchdown all season long, and receivers he covered had a reception percentage of just over 52%. Without Wright and James, the Ducks will be without their top-two cornerbacks.

Jones was never a starter for the team but managed to pick up two sacks. However, in his limited playing time, he was not that productive and he will be heading to Auburn.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Ducks will still head into this game with their rushing attack, which is a three-headed monster when you factor in quarterback Anthony Brown. Out of the backfield, the Ducks have Travis Dye and CJ Verdell. Between these two backs and Brown, the trio combined for 374 carries, 2,244 yards, and 31 touchdowns. Keep in mind that Verdell only played in five games this season.

The rushing attack will need to be a point of emphasis in this one as Oregon’s top receiver Devon Williams, who leads the team with 52 targets, 557 receiving yards and four touchdowns also opted out and will be looking to enter the NFL Draft. Williams offered a deep threat ability that is not easily replicable, averaging 15.9 yards per reception and an average depth of target of 15.2, further illustrating his deep threat prowess.

Without Williams, Brown, who threw for just 2,661 yards and 14 touchdowns, this year may need to look to utilize his rushing ability more. With just six interceptions on the year, Brown had some luck as he had 13 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.

So, in total, the Ducks will be without their top edge rusher, top-two cornerbacks, and top wide receiver. Those are going to be a lot of holes to overcome.

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Like with all bowl games, top sportsbooks in Canada were quick to offer up odds for the game. However, since the bowl game was announced, Oklahoma has gone from around a 3.5-point underdog to now being nearly a 5-point favourite across the board. As time has progressed, more opt-outs have happened, thus the change in lines. No matter what, though, expect to find Oklahoma as the favourite in this one regardless of where you wager.

Alamo Bowl Moneyline Odds

With a moneyline bet, you remove the spread and just pick a winner straight up. However, you will find some odds that may not offer as lucrative a payout because of how favoured one team is over another. Looking at the 888sport sportsbook, you will find Oklahoma listed at -200, whereas the Ducks will be +160. For Oklahoma, with this negative line, this means you will need to make bets in that amount to win C$100.

The Alamo Bowl has happened every year since 1993 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. This College Football game was usually played in December but shifted to January for the 2014 and 2015 editions, making for two Alamo Bowls played in 2016.

With five appearances, the Texas Longhorns currently holds the record for most Alamo Bowl wins with four. The next closes team is Nebraska who was been three times and won all three appearances.

Oklahoma Statement Win Post-Riley

With Riley moving on, the Sooners are set to enter a massive transition period. Without Riley and without four defensive starters, the Sooners will look enter a new era of Oklahoma football. With Williams continuing to be under centre for the foreseeable future and Venable taking on the head coaching duties, the Sooners future seems to be bright.

Take the -4.5 Spread

Shopping around for different odds is always a great idea, but you will be hard-pressed to find anything different from the Sooners -4.5. The Sooners will cover here.

Monitor Opt-Outs

With the game coming up, we’ve learned of many opt-outs but there could still be more in play. If that is the case and we see more Sooners opt-out and move this line more in the direction of Oregon, take advantage. With Thibodeaux opting out for Oregon, there is not really another player that could opt-out that would swing this line dramatically enough.

All The Money is on Oklahoma

According to Pro Football Focus, not only is 82% of the cash on the Sooners in this one, but 87% of the tickets are as well for the spread. If you’re heading into this one and want to take Oregon at -4.5, maybe wait until closer to game time to see if maybe instead of the four and a hook you get a full 5 points.