The Martingale System: A Betting Strategy to Avoid?

When people first discover gambling, they dream of finding a full-proof system that will return them a profit every time. One of the first betting systems that people come across is called The Martingale.

But is it really a winning system, or does it have inherent flaws that make it better to avoid than to employ?

What is the Martingale System Betting Strategy?

The basic premise of this betting strategy is to start by betting a single unit, on an even money shot. If the bet loses, you have to double it and keep doing so until you get a winner.

When the bet does eventually win, no matter how many bets it takes to achieve it, you will be one single unit in profit.

Seems simple, right? Well, it is a pretty straightforward system and theoretically someone employing it would never lose, if they have unlimited funds to keep on going until they hit a winner. 

In practice, the Martingale is not a guaranteed winning strategy and there are some very good reasons not to use it. We’ll take a look later, but first, let’s find out more about its history.

History of the Martingale System

Due to this strategy being a very simple mathematical concept and due to the gambling being almost as old as humanity, the system has probably existed for a lot longer than its moniker.

The first references to the system using the word ‘martingale’ appear in the 1750s, notably in the memoirs of Casanova, the famous Italian gambler and socialite, who wrote of his experiences of gambling in the casino in Venice.

Other works of literature at the time also make reference to the Martingale as a well-used term used within gambling circles, suggesting it was a commonly attempted system, employed by many gamblers of the era.

Dostoevsky’s famous semi auto-biographical book, The Gambler, was centred on the self-destruction of its main protagonist, who succumbed to using this system on roulette tables in the fictional town of Rouletteville. Unable to sustain a prolonged winning streak using such a system, the main character fell more and more into debt in a never-ending cycle of chasing his losses.

The precise origin of the system is hard to pin down, although there are a number of unverified claims relating to its origin. One of these attributes the name to a British gambling house owner named John Henry Martingale. Another theory suggests that the name came from a gambling French aristocratic family bearing the same name.

While the truth remains unknown, linguists have traced usage of the word Martingale to much older sources, some related to a type of clothing worn in the 16th century, with an opening at the back, enabling the wearer to easily make bowel movements without the need to undress fully.

It starts badly, with you guessing incorrectly 4 times in a row before winning. At $1 per point you would have four losing spins of $1, then $2, $4 and finally $8. Betting $16 on the fifth spin you win. You had lost $15 on the first four spins before winning the fifth spin for a $16 profit, putting you ahead by $1. The game continues.

How to use the Martingale System Betting Strategy

Using this strategy is very easy to do, with the player simply needing to double their bet every time until you have a winning spin.

Bets should be placed at odds of 1/1, which ensures that no matter how many bets it takes until a winner arises, you will always be one unit in profit when it does.

As you are doubling the bet every time, the size of each successive bet is always equal to one more unit than the total of the losing bets combined. The profit will always be one unit, regardless of how many bets it takes to achieve it.

Martingale: Theory v Practice

Theoretically, the Martingale is a winning strategy, but there are several factors that limit its use in practice.

Needs an Unlimited Bankroll

The first is obvious, when you look at the mathematical principle behind it. It would take unlimited funds to be guaranteed to work in practice, as it relies on the bet size doubling after each losing wager.

Even starting at a relatively small bet size - such as $1 - it doesn’t take long for the losses to add up. By the seventh losing bet in a row, you will be more than $100 down, while losing 10 in a row would put you in a four-figure hole. 

The Casino Retains an Edge

While this strategy may seem like a straightforward 50-50 wager, true even money bets don’t actually exist at a land-based casino or online casino.

Betting on even money outcomes, like red or black and odds or even, you will not actually get 50-50 odds due to the presence of the zero on the classic roulette wheel, which gives the house a 2.7% edge.

Players who prefer American Roulette are even worse treated, with the additional double zero number increasing the house advantage to 5.26%.

Other house games are even less well suited when it comes to employing this strategy, with games like blackjack having their odds impacted by betting options like doubling and splitting.

You Can’t Change the Laws of Probability

In most live casinos, each roulette table will usually have an electronic sign next to it, displaying the results of the most recent spins. There are some players who think they can beat the odds, such as waiting for a long losing run of one colour before beginning a betting sequence. They look out for long streaks, before betting on the opposite outcome.

While this might seem to give the player a better chance of winning with a Martingale Strategy, it fails to account for the fact that every spin of a roulette wheel is an entirely independent event. Just because there were six reds in a row, it doesn’t make it more or less likely that the result of the seventh spin will be black.

Tom Stoppard's play, Rosencrantz & Guildenstern are Dead, explores the probability of coin tosses and should be heeded as a warning against anyone who is fixated on giving this system a go. In the play, Rosencrantz wins 92 spins on the trot, calling heads each time.

If Guildenstern, who was on tails each time, had employed this betting strategy, he would 

Reverse Martingale

Perhaps a more fun strategy, which doesn’t require an endless bankroll, is to use what is sometimes referred to as a Reverse Martingale Strategy.

The theory behind this is to try and spin up the house’s money by increasing the size of your bets when they win. Rather than chasing losses until you land a win, you will keep increasing your bet size until you lose.

The best approach here is not to double your bets each time, as you will eventually lose it all back, but to increase it gradually, so that you still retain some profit when the losing spin inevitably occurs.

The 1989 movie, Let It Ride, sees Richard Dreyfus using this strategy at the horse track, pressing his bets all the way going for glory. 

Things to Consider Before Using The Martingale System Strategy

The first thing to consider before using this strategy is what you are actually trying to achieve by using it. Each betting sequence using the system ends in one of two ways - either a loss or a single unit of profit.

In order to make the system worthwhile, it has to be repeated many times, for the single units of profit to add up to a meaningful amount. The more often it is used, the more likely that a losing streak will occur.

Conclusion

As discussed throughout this article, the Martingale System is a betting strategy that sparks debate - some believe it is foolproof, while others argue it's not worth the effort for just a single unit win.

Whether you prefer to use your own variation of the Martingale System or even experiment with the Reverse Martingale, it remains a popular approach on roulette tables all over the world.