Next Reform UK Leader Odds: Tice Leads Jenrick In Betting To Replace Farage

UK betting sites believe Richard Tice would beat Robert Jenrick to the role of Reform UK leader should Nigel Farage ever step down from the post.

Questions over Farage’s leadership of Reform have been raised since X owner Elon Musk suggested he “doesn't have what it takes” to run the party.

That came after Farage distanced himself from comments made by Musk about Tommy Robinson, who is serving jail time for contempt of court. 

In criticising Musk, Farage appears to have fractured his relationship with the billionaire, who is now Donald Trump’s right-hand man.

Reform have made huge strides under Farage since he took over the party leadership from Tice ahead of the 2024 summer election. They now claim to have more members than the Conservative party.

Yet there remains doubt over Farage’s commitment to the party and whether he is ready to stick around for the entire parliament. 

There have been rumours that the former UKIP leader would love to head the Conservatives and he is one of the favourites to succeed Kemi Badenoch.

Indeed, Musk’s recent outburst about Farage’s leadership has cast the spotlight back in the former banker’s face and political betting sites are beginning to wonder what’s next for Farage.

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With persistent speculation over his political future, the bookies have decided to produce their next Reform leader odds – and it’s good news for Tice.

William Hill reckons Tice would edge fellow Reform MP Rupert Lowe and take the party leadership, should Farage step down. 

Tice, Lowe and Farage are three of the party’s five Members of Parliament, with James McMurdock and Lee Anderson joining them in the Commons.

Here, we look at the top three candidates for the job.

Next Reform UK Leader Odds

Richard Tice

Tice formerly led the party and is a close ally of Farage. The former Conservative MP is now the deputy, with Farage running the party as leader. 

Together, they have helped grow the party membership but arguably failed to deliver on their potential at July’s election, where they won just five seats in parliament.

He was a huge supporter of Brexit and is well known within right-wing populist circles. That would make him a sure vote winner if there was a contest to succeed Farage.

He also seems to be playing a steady hand in the public discourse around Musk. 

After the Tesla owner suggested “America should liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government”, Tice told LBC: “At the end of the day, we're a sovereign, independent nation, and we can agree with Mr Musk on certain things, and we can disagree on others. 

"That's the joy of democracy and free speech.”

William Hill has Tice at 6/4 to succeed Farage. Those odds carry a 40% probability and are the shortest of all viable candidates.

Rupert Lowe

Lowe has always been a Eurosceptic, which meant he was in a good place to win a seat in Great Yarmouth last summer. He snuck through with a 3.5% majority.

Now, Lowe has kept a low profile compared to Farage and Tice since taking office six months ago. But he is suddenly the second favourite to succeed Farage as Reform leader after Musk’s recent intervention.

“I have not met Rupert Lowe, but his statements online that I have read so far make a lot of sense,” said Musk on X. The bookies immediately slashed Lowe’s odds to 2/1, which carry a 33.3% probability.

Lowe has since stood by Farage’s comments that Reform have a different view to Musk on Tommy Robinson. But he would very much be in the running if Tice decided he didn’t want the leadership again, were Farage to step aside too.

Robert Jenrick

Conservative MP Jenrick went close to taking over the Tories in the autumn, before Badenoch beat him on the membership vote. 

Jenrick is a seasoned politician who reads the room and goes with the loudest voice in it. He had planned to swing the Tories further to the right in the hope of clawing back voters who defected to Reform.

Perhaps he’s now more interested in joining Reform?

No one has yet crossed the Commons floor to openly defect to Reform, but Jenrick could be the first. If Farage were to step aside and focus his energies on the US then Jenrick – keen on power – could swoop in.

He would probably take a fair chunk of the Conservative membership with him, which would only bolster Reform’s support. However, at 7/1 the bookies still think he’s an outside shot for now.

Best Of The Rest

The bookies are fairly sceptical on who could replace Farage, should Tice, Lowe or Jenrick not go for the post. Ben Habib is a former deputy leader of the party who quit following Reform’s structural shake-up after the election. 

He says Tommy Robinson should be in the party and would consider a stab at the leadership, were the post to come up. He is an intriguing 8/1 outsider.

MP Anderson, meanwhile, is 10/1. This looks unlikely, as Anderson is a far more effective politician when he’s detached from the party leadership. 

A hard-talking populist, Anderson is one of Reform’s best mouthpieces but his brashness doesn’t lend itself to diplomatic politics.

Then there is a collection of former Tory grandees who may be seeking to rejuvenate their frontline political careers. Ex-prime minister Boris Johnson and former home secretary Suella Braverman are both 12/1 outsiders. 

Ex-home secretary and now shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel is another suggestion, but at 16/1 she seems unlikely.

In fact, it’s quite possible that Farage won't quit the party at all. He is 2/5 (71% probability) to be Reform leader at the next election and 12/5 (29%) to be replaced in 2025.

It looks likely that he’ll remain in post for the coming months. 

Trump’s presidential inauguration could change things, as Farage’s is intrinsically tied to the Trump project and therefore Musk. 

But for now, he and Reform are well placed to influence UK and US politics over 2025. Why would he quit?