Wallabies Next Game: Latest Odds & Analysis on Australia vs Portugal

When: Saturday, September 30, 2:45am AEST

Where: Stade Geoffroy Guichard, Saint-Étienne (capacity: ~42,000)

Watch: Nine, Stan Sport

Best Odds: Australia 1.04, Portugal 14.0

Perhaps the most deflating thing about the Wallabies’ preparations for what should have been a near-walkover against Portugal is knowing that they may be walking out onto the Stade Geoffroy Guichard having already been eliminated from a Rugby World Cup in the pool stage for the first time in their history.

An enormous bonus point victory is their minimum requirement, though if Fiji were to pick up a full five points against Georgia the night before - which is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility based on previous form - Australia would be out of contention for the quarter-finals.

But perhaps it would be best for Australia to be put out of their misery a week early, for if things go to plan this week they’re going to have to wait around in France for at least another seven days and watch on to see if Portugal can do them a favour against Fiji during the Wallabies’ bye week.

It makes for a fascinating betting encounter, particularly with the potential consequences not to be known until 23 hours before kickoff, which could see prices shift across online rugby betting sites on gameday. 

The Numbers That Matter

• Portugal covered the pre-match line in their last four matches, including a 30-17 loss to Australia ‘A’
• Australia failed to cover in seven of their eight games in 2023
• The second half was the highest scoring half in nine of Australia’s last 11 games
• Raffaele Storti has scored tries in four of his last seven games for Portugal including against Australia ‘A’

Australia Team News

15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 13 Izaia Perese, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Richie Arnold, 4 Nick Frost, 3 James Slipper, 2 David Porecki (c), 1 Angus Bell 

In: Fraser McReight, Izaia Perese, Lalakai Foketi
Out: Rob Leota, Samu Kerevi, Jordan Petaia

Another Wallabies game means another new combination for Eddie Jones to gamble on, but this one isn’t quite as experimental as some of his previous selections.

Izaia Perese and Lalakai Foketi are replacing Samu Kerevi and Jordan Petaia as outside and inside centres respectively, with the former making his World Cup debut and the latter his ninth appearance for Australia (albeit with a record of W1 L7 in Wallabies gold!)

But they’re already a very familiar partnership as the 12 and 13 for the NSW Waratahs for the majority of the last two and a half seasons, even registering three try scoring appearances each in 2023 including both in a late season 21-20 win over the Highlanders.

Eddie Jones was frank in his assessment of their failed campaign during the week, describing his youthful squad as “not strong enough to play test rugby consistently at the moment” but, in the face of criticism for having dumped some senior players so close to a World Cup, continues to assert he believes this is the best Wallabies team available.

Australia v Portugal: What Could Happen This Weekend?

We advise withholding your wagers until the conclusion of Fiji’s game against Georgia, because Australia’s tactics (and more importantly, their morale and effort) could change dramatically if they’re already eliminated from the quarter-finals.

These predictions are without the foresight of knowing the result of Fiji’s encounter with Georgia, but we’re nonetheless expecting Australia to struggle in parts against a plucky opposition that has exceeded expectations at this tournament.

Even if they’re out of the running, Australia will be pressing hard for a bonus point win to not only go out on a high but to shake off at least some of the criticism coming their way from back home.

But every nation comes to a RWC with ambitions and Portugal has already made life difficult for Wales (L 28-8) and Georgia (D 18-18), with only a missed late penalty kick standing between them and their inaugural RWC victory.

Regardless of what is at stake for the Wallabies on the day, they’re at rock bottom, admittedly feeling significantly demoralised (“not that well” was how Wallabies fullback Andrew Kellaway said he was responding to the loss to Wales) whilst Portugal are a rising stock in good form that he said would be “licking their lips” at the prospect of tackling a “vulnerable” top-10 nation.

Portugal at the line appeals most at this point with bookmakers, even more so if Australia are playing only for pride.

Best Bet: Portugal +23.5 points - 1.9 @ Ladbrokes

Player Prop: Raffaele Storti to score a try - 3.75 @ Bet365