Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2024?

Date IconLast Updated: 14 Feb 2024
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Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2024?
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Betting sites still have Jude Bellingham as the favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or after Lionel Messi scooped the award in 2023 for what is likely to be the last time.

Real Madrid’s Bellingham was named the world's best young player at the 2023 Ballon d’Or awards and received the Kopa Trophy at the ceremony in Paris.

“To win this trophy means a lot,” said Bellingham. "But for me the important thing is team trophies and the important thing for me is to kick on and help Real Madrid and England win trophies for many years.”

Bookmakers reckon he is in pole position to go one step further this year and win the main gong that Messi claimed for an eighth time in his career in 2023.

But there is fierce competition for the 2024 Ballon d’Or with both Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo now expected to drop out of the top three after a period of dominance that has lasted almost two decades.

A number of bookmakers have now updated their 2024 Ballon d’Or betting markets and Bellingham isn’t the only Englishman seemingly in the running.

Ballon d'Or 2024 Odds

Jude Bellingham3.75Unibet
Kylian Mbappe4.5Bet365
Erling Haaland6.5Unibet
Harry Kane7.0Bet365
Lionel Messi11.0Unibet
Kevin De Bruyne21.0Unibet
Vinicius Jr26.0Bet365
Mohamed Salah26.0Bet365
Cristiano Ronaldo34.0Bet365

Jude Bellingham Ballon d’Or Odds

Bellingham came second in the race for the 2021 Kopa Trophy when at Borussia Dortmund and was overlooked for the gong in 2022. 

In 2023, however, Bellingham secured his £88.5m transfer to Real Madrid and the versatile midfielder has not looked back.

At the time of writing, Bellingham already has 20 goals in 29 appearances for Los Blancos as Carlo Ancelotti's side look to reclaim the La Liga title.

He continues to lead the way in the top goalscorer charts in Spain and also became the first player to score in each of his first four Champions League appearances for Real Madrid.

More goals are to come for the Englishman as he has become Madrid's leading man so far this season.

Bellingham’s rise has been projected ever since he came through the academy ranks at Birmingham. However, to be favourite for the Ballon d’Or at just 20 years old is remarkable.

His 3.75 odds carry a 26.7% implied probability that would have put him ahead of everyone bar Messi in last season’s market.

Being at Real certainly helps his chances. Not only is he on course to score 30+ goals this season and challenge for the Champions League and La Liga trophies, he’s also tipped to be the key man for England at Euro 2024 in the summer.

To win the Ballon d’Or you need to win trophies. That’s what always set Messi and Ronaldo apart from the rest. 

If Bellingham can deliver for Real and potentially steer England to a first men’s trophy since 1966 then this gong is his.

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Mbappe Ballon d’Or Odds Hold Firm

Kylian Mbappe is Bellingham’s closest rival for the Ballon d’Or in 2024 and it’s not hard to see why. 

There is no Neymar or Messi in the PSG squad now and the Champions League remains the club’s ultimate ambition.

Mbappe has already won the World Cup with France, but that triumph earned him the 2018 Kopa Trophy. 

Had France beaten Argentina in the 2022 final then he would surely have won the Ballon d’Or ahead of Messi.

At 25 years of age and with the previous generation of big guns now out of the way, the path looked smooth for Mbappe to finally win this gong. But then Bellingham came along.

Mbappe cannot outshine the Englishman for prowess on the domestic front as winning La Liga is considered a bigger achievement than steamrolling Ligue 1 once again.

But football betting sites have Mbappe smartly priced at 4.5 and realistically this could be a toss-up between Mbappe’s France and Bellingham’s England, and how their countries fare at Euro 2024.

Haaland Odds Reflect Voting Issues

Erling Haaland is, by most people’s reckoning, the most fearsome footballer on the planet right now. He is a deadly finisher, can lead the line on his own, and is a terror for defenders.

He has never won the Ballon d’Or and hasn’t even come close to winning the Kopa Trophy.

There are a few reasons for this. The first is that he will almost certainly never achieve the international success that Messi, Ronaldo and previous winners like Fabio Cannavaro and Luis Figo enjoyed in their careers. 

Haaland isn’t winning a World Cup, European Championship or Nations League with Norway.

Erling Haaland hair

The second is he’s at Manchester City. The vote of 170 journalists (now cut to 100) usually focuses more on the continent. City aren’t looked upon favourably elsewhere in Europe purely because of their financial clout.

Haaland won the treble last season and still didn’t pick up the 2023 award because Messi won the World Cup.

Another treble this term - and that’s not out of the question - would surely reduce Haaland’s current odds of 6.5

However, that might not be enough if a rival wins the European Championships for their country.

Kane Finally Has A Chance At Ballon d’Or

It was commendable that Harry Kane stayed at Tottenham as long as he did but the voting process for the Ballon d’Or used to heavily favour trophies, and still does to a big extent.

Now at Bayern Munich, Kane has the chance to win the Bundesliga title and the Champions League, before captaining England at the Euros.

Bayern's recent defeat to Bayer Leverkusen has left them five points off top spot, but should he continue to dominate the Bundesliga on a goalscoring front and deliver for the Three Lions, then Kane’s odds of 7.0 with Unibet will almost certainly drop. 

He never once got into the top three of the Ballon d’Or votes while at Spurs, but with 28 goals in as many matches sporting his new colours, 2024 could be his year.

Best Of The Rest

It would be a big surprise if Messi (11.0) won this trophy once more in his career but there’s a slim chance of that happening in 2024. 

After all, Argentina compete in the Copa America in the US this summer, and he shone at Inter Miami in the latter stages of the 2023 MLS season.

Get off to a good start with Miami and win the Copa America, and there will be talk of a ninth Ballon d’Or. 

In reality he might just sneak into the top three, assuming the European Championships don’t go to France or England.

Elsewhere, City’s Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne carry the same weight as Haaland when it comes to convincing journalists they are worthy of votes.

Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr is a good outside bet at 26.0 with bookies when you consider he may be the star of the 2024 Copa America. 

However, the Brazilian might end up in Bellingham’s shadow should Real storm to Champions League and La Liga success this term.

Mohamed Salah, at 26.0, could prove to be the best value, but Liverpool would have to beat City to the Premier League title. 

Ronaldo, meanwhile, would need a sensational Euro 2024 to even be considered in the top three here following his move to Saudi Arabia.