Western Australia Election Odds Predict Another Huge Labor Landslide

Betting sites expect Labor to win another landslide at the 2025 Western Australia Election and maintain the ALP’s series of positive results in recent years.

Voters head to the polls on March 8, with the cost of living, housing and health care top of the agenda. Labor won a huge majority at the 2021 Western Australia Election. 

The win was part of a series of ALP victories across Australia in recent years, which has shut out the majority of right-wing parties.

Leader Roger Cook, who replaced Mark McGowan in 2023, looks on course to deliver a majority again, although it won’t be of the size McGowan enjoyed.

Labor and the Liberals have each taken control of the Western Australia legislative assembly for successive terms over the past few decades. 

However, it looks as though the Libs won’t be able to claw back from their harrowing defeat in 2022 in time to secure a majority here.

Betting apps reckon Labor are almost guaranteed to win, even if the vote share is less impressive than last time.

Western Australia Election Issues

Political betting sites believe Labor have an 85.7% chance of being sworn into government in WA this March. 

Betfair price Labor at 1.17, which is a drop from 1.60 to win the Western Australia election back in January.

That’s a huge probability increase and shows how the Lib/Nat coalition has failed to make any significant ground in this state. 

A Coalition victory – spearheaded by Libby Mettam – is priced at an unlikely 5.00.

The odds don’t reflect the size of Labor’s viable majority but do indicate the likelihood of Cook beating Mettam to the state premier. And Labor’s odds are understandable.

They crushed the Coalition parties in 2021, winning 53 of the 59 available Assembly seats. The Nats fell to four seats and the Libs to two. They now have just three each.

Who Will Win The Western Australia Election?

Labor haven’t got everything right during this legislative session but they remain the clear frontrunners to win again. 

The polls have the ALP ahead of the Liberals at 56-44 in the two-party-preferred vote.

This is a healthy lead that should deliver a sound majority. However, within the poll data there are some potential alarm bells for Labor to be aware of. 

For a start, their support has dropped 14% since the last election. It’s fallen from a high watermark, but it’s still a fall.

Liberal support is back to 34% but that still wouldn’t be enough to topple Labor. In fact, a big issue for Mettam is that Cook leads her 42-29 as preferred premier.

Labor will almost certainly win the state election unless there is a hidden trap that emerges from the federal election timings. 

Australia is due to hold a federal election at some point between March and May. 

Cook has already sought advice on what happens if the two elections clash, because state law prevents the WA election date from moving.

If the federal government opt for a March 8 date, then this could cause chaos in Western Australia.

That's because voters may see the ALP’s decision to choose that date for the federal vote as overlooking the state’s priorities. 

Coalition leaders would jump on the issue and that could bolster the Liberal vote.

ALP strategists are also concerned about the tide of left-wing election victories coming to an end.

David Crisafulli won the Lib/Nat state election in Queensland in October. 

The Country Liberals beat Labor in Northern Territory back in August, and March saw the Liberals win most seats in Tasmania.

Labor’s wave of victories between 2020 and 2023 has come to an end. They should win Western Australia, but the result might be tighter than the odds suggest.

For now, voters still aren’t convinced by the Liberals and this will help Cook. 

He needs the federal government to support him though and give him the space needed to produce a comfortable win.

Only then will the country turn to the main event later in the autumn when the federal election comes into sharp focus.