Monday Night Football Betting Advice: Cowboys vs. Giants

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Today, 8:05 p.m. ET, TSN

Line: Giants -1 | Total:  39 points

The Cowboys (1-1 straight-up, 1-1 against the spread, 0-2 Over-Under) will be on the road to take on their NFC East divisional rival Giants (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 Over-Under).

Before the preseason, the line opened with the Cowboys priced as a 2.5-point favourite with a total priced at 48 points. 

However, the loss of Cowboys All-Pro quarterback Dak Prescott has shifted the lines significantly to making the Giants a 1-point favourite and the total declining nine points to 39.

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favouring the Giants by a single points and a total of 39 points implies a Giants 20 to 19 win. My predictive model shows a high probability that the Giants and Cowboys will both score 21 or more points.

• The Giants are  80-91 SU and 92-77-2 against the spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets including a jaw-dropping 148-18-5 Over-Under record good for 89% winning Over bets in games in which they and their foes each score 20 or more points.
• The Cowboys are 100-81 SU, 82-91-8 ATS, and 166-12-3 Over-Under good for 93% winning Over bets in games in which they and their foes each score 20 or more points.
• The Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has posted a 36-20-1 Over-Under record when coming off a game in which his defense allowed three or fewer points in the first half.

I am betting the Over in this matchup currently priced at 39 points at BetMGM.

Quick Kicks

For the season, player prop bets are 10-3, making $388 per $50 bet.

• Bet the Giants' Daniel Jones to throw an interception –115 at BetMGM.
• Bet the Cowboys' Cooper Rush Over 1.5 passing touchdowns +165 at FanDuel.
• Bet the Giants' Faniel Jones Over 1.5 passing touchdowns +200 at FanDuel.
• Bet the Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb Over 4.5 receptions –165 at BetMGM.
• Bet the Giants' Sequon Barkley Over 3.5 receptions +125 at PointsBet.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season.