Irish Election Odds: Latest Betting Movements As Fine Gael Lead FF and Sinn Fein

Betting sites expect Fianna Fail to complete a remarkable turnaround in Friday’s Irish election and deliver Micheál Martin the position of Taoiseach for the next parliament.

Ireland’s three biggest political parties have agreed to a general election being held before 2024 is out.

A continued Fianna Fail/Fine Gael-led government looks the most likely result from an election as support for Sinn Fein continues to fall.

The election comes as the Dail seeks to pass a new finance bill that will focus on taxation provisions this autumn.

The election will take place on November 29, and online bookmakers initially believed Simon Harris would retain his job, which he took from Leo Varadkar earlier this year.

However, a disastrous campaign has seen Harris’ Fine Gael drop as many as six points in the run-up to the vote – and now the bookies are backing success for Martin and Fianna Fail.

The two parties will almost certainly come together in order to block off Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Fein and remain in power. Recent opinion polls suggest voters are generally happy with the current coalition.

And betting apps see little chance of Sinn Fein repeating their 37-seat haul earned at the 2020 Irish election.

Irish General Election - Most Seats Odds

Irish Election Odds

Sinn Fein were the 1/4 favourites to win the most seats in the Dail when Varadkar stepped down as Taoiseach in the spring. Those odds have now completely flipped.

Voters initially warmed to Harris following his stint in the hot seat but his terrible campaign – which included walking away from a care worker who was asking for more support – has derailed his ambitions to remain in power.

Support for Fine Gael has nosedived. While they’re expected to gain more seats than Sinn Fein, they are now 7/2 with BoyleSports to win the most seats overall. That’s a huge drop from 1/2 earlier in the month.

Martin, meanwhile, is the big winner. His party has enjoyed a steady campaign and effectively stayed out of the limelight. Fianna Fail are now 7/20 to post the most seats in the Dail.

Who Will Be Taoiseach Next?

Betting sites are also running a market on the next Taoiseach following Ireland’s 2024 general election. 

Harris was 1/2 to keep his job following a 53% approval rating earned during his time in office.

That popularity has nosedived. Martin himself isn’t a hugely popular figure but is now 2/5 to be named the next Taoiseach. 

That reflects the polls that have Fianna Fail carrying a slim lead into election day on November 29.

Taoiseach After Next Election Betting Odds

McDonald was at one stage the 8/13 favourite to be Taoiseach. The European elections ruined that hope as Sinn Fein were forced to examine their policies and figure out why voters had fled to other parties.

Now it seems impossible for anyone but Martin to win following Harris’ wayward campaign.

Both FG and FF are pushing for the finance bill to pass, in order to “put flesh on the bones of the Budget”, according to Martin.

Harris has also suggested that he would happily continue working with Fianna Fail in the future, and that the current structure works for his party.