Irish Election Odds: Latest Betting Movements As Fine Gael Lead FF and Sinn Féin

Betting sites expect Fine Gael to win the most seats at the next Irish general election and keep Simon Harris in the position of Taoiseach for the next parliament.

Ireland’s three biggest political parties have agreed to a general election being held before 2024 is out.

A continued Fianna Fail/Fine Gael led government looks the most likely result from an election as support for Sinn Fein continues to fall.

The election comes as the Dail seeks to pass a new finance bill that will focus on taxation provisions this autumn.

No date for the election has been set as yet, though November 29 has been rumored, and online bookmakers believe Harris is in a strong position to retain his job, which he took from Leo Varadkar earlier this year.

Fianna Fail would almost certainly join Fine Gael in order to block off Mary Lou McDonald’s party and remain in power. Recent opinion polls suggest voters are generally happy with the current coalition.

And new betting apps see little chance of Sinn Fein repeating their 37-seat haul earned at the 2020 Irish election.

Irish General Election - Most Seats Odds

Irish Election Odds

Sinn Fein were the 1/4 favourites to win the most seats in the Dail with political betting sites when Varadkar stepped down as Taoiseach in the spring. Those odds have now completely flipped as voters warm to Harris.

The pro-unification party are now 4/1 outsiders to earn the most seats. While they are able to attract voters from both sides of the political spectrum, their messaging in recent elections has been inconsistent.

Sinn Fein suffered a heavy defeat in the summer’s European elections – so much so that McDonald’s leadership came into question.

Immigration is a huge doorstep issue in Ireland right now. Fine Gael appears to have the upper hand with a firm approach, while Fianna Fail has become used to working with its rival party in recent decades.

Amazingly, it’s possible that neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fail will even put forward enough candidates to secure a majority. Both look on course to field 80 candidates, where 87 is needed to run the Dail alone.

BoyleSports price Fine Gael as favourites at 1/2 to win the most seats, with Fianna Fail second at 2/1. Micheál Martin’s FF actually scored three more seats than Varadkar’s party in 2020 but Fine Gael are a different beast under Harris now.

Who Will Be Taoiseach Next?

Betting sites are also running a market on the next Taoiseach following Ireland’s 2024 general election. It’s no surprise Harris is priced at 1/2 – the same odds his party are to secure the most Dail seats.

The incumbent Taoiseach’s approval rating sits at 53%, while Fianna Fail's Martin is on 48%. McDonald, by contrast, has seen her personal polls fall to 33%.

This also reflects the wider polls that have Fine Gael on 25%, with FF five points behind and Sinn Fein back on 18%.

McDonald was at one stage the 8/13 favourite to be Taoiseach. The European elections ruined that hope as Sinn Fein were forced to examine their policies and figure out why voters had fled to other parties.

Now it seems impossible for anyone but Harris to win. 

He has proven to be a steady force in Dublin since taking office and has made Ireland’s economic situation the centre of his government.

Taoiseach After Next Election Betting Odds

Both FG and FF are pushing for the finance bill to pass, in order to “put flesh on the bones of the Budget”, according to Martin.

Harris has also suggested that he would happily continue working with Fianna Fail in the future, and that the current structure works for his party.

That’s perhaps no surprise when Fianna Fail are in power and have the backing of voters.

When Is The Irish Election?

Ireland's three political parties have outlined their intentions to stage the next election before the end of 2024. However, in a recent RTÉ News interview, Fianna Fail leader Martin said: “The difference between December and February isn't huge.”

This opens the door for a possible election in the spring, although Ireland must hold a vote no later than March.

It is within both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael’s interest to get an election over with now. They are both polling better than Sinn Fein and appear comfortable in their power-sharing government structure.

In fact, the vote could solidify this partnership and lead to a smoother parliament than that which has played out since 2020.

The Greens mooted a November 29 date for the election, and November certainly seems preferable for most parties. However, Ireland looks set to wait until the result of the US election is settled before confirming its plans for a vote.

It’s possible the next Irish election is held in December 2024, although any date beyond the first week seems unlikely. An election needs to take place within 18-25 days after it’s called. Theoretically, then, a December 6 date would need to be called by November 18.