All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U
When the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in the 2020 Super Bowl, it marked the second straight season in which the favorite covered, continuing to reverse what had become an NFL betting trend in recent years.
Underdogs had dominated in Super Bowl betting for almost two decades during the 2000s and 2010s, winning against the spread in the NFL’s championship game 12 times in 17 years before the Chiefs and the New England Patriots in 2019 stemmed the tide.
Every Super Bowl Against the Spread Result
| Super Bowl | ATS Result | Score | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIV | Favorite | Chiefs 31, 49ers 20 | Chiefs -1.5 |
| LIII | Favorite | Patriots 13, Rams 3 | Patriots -2.5 |
| LII | Underdog | Eagles 41, Patriots 33 | Patriots -4 |
| LI | Favorite | Patriots 34, Falcons 28 | Patriots -3 |
| 50 | Underdog | Broncos 24, Panthers 10 | Panthers -5 |
| XLIX | Favorite | Patriots 28, Seahawks 24 | Patriots -1 | XLVIII | Underdog | Seahawks 43, Broncos 8 | Broncos -2.5 |
| XLVII | Underdog | Ravens 34, 49ers 31 | 49ers -4 |
| XLVI | Underdog | Giants 21, Patriots 17 | Patriots -3 |
| XLV | Favorite | Packers 35, Steelers 31 | Packers -2.5 |
| XLIV | Underdog | Saints 31, Colts 17 | Colts -4.5 |
| XLIII | Favorite | Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 | Steelers -7 |
| XLII | Underdog | Giants 17, Patriots 14 | Patriots -12.5 |
| XLI | Favorite | Colts 29, Bears 17 | Colts -7 |
| XL | Favorite | Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 | Steelers -4 |
| XXXIX | Underdog | Patriots 24, Eagles 21 | Patriots -7 |
| XXXVIII | Underdog | Patriots 32, Panthers 29 | Patriots -7 |
| XXXVII | Underdog | Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21 | Raiders -4 |
| XXXVI | Underdog | Patriots 20, Rams 17 | Rams -14 |
| XXXV | Favorite | Ravens 34, Giants 7 | Ravens -3 |
| XXXIV | Push | Cardinals 23, Titans 16 | Cardinals -7 |
| XXXIII | Favorite | Broncos 34, Falcons 19 | Broncos -7.5 |
| XXXII | Underdog | Broncos 31, Packers 24 | Packers -11.5 |
| XXXI | Push | Packers 35, Patriots 21 | Packers -14 |
| XXX | Underdog | Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 | Cowboys -13.5 |
| XXIX | Favorite | 49ers 49, Chargers 26 | 49ers -18 |
| XXVIII | Favorite | Cowboys 30, Bills 13 | Cowboys -10.5 |
| XXVII | Favorite | Cowboys 52, Bills 17 | Cowboys -6.5 |
| XXVI | Favorite | Redskins 37, Bills 24 | Redskins -7 |
| XXV | Underdog | Giants 20, Bills 19 | Bills -6.5 |
| XXIV | Favorite | 49ers 55, Broncos 10 | 49ers -12 |
| XXIII | Underdog | 49ers 20, Bengals 16 | 49ers -7 |
| XXII | Underdog | Redskins 42, Broncos 10 | Broncos -3.5 |
| XXI | Favorite | Giants 39, Broncos 20 | Giants -9.5 |
| XX | Favorite | Bears 46, Patriots 10 | Bears -10 |
| XIX | Favorite | 49ers 38, Dolphins 16 | 49ers -3 |
| XVIII | Underdog | Raiders 38, Redskins 9 | Redskins -3.5 |
| XVII | Underdog | Redskins 27, Dolphins 17 | Dolphins -3 |
| XVI | Underdog | 49ers 26, Bengals 21 | Bengals -1 |
| XV | Underdog | Raiders 27, Eagles 10 | Eagles -3 |
| XIV | Favorite | Steelers 31, Rams 19 | Steelers -10.5 |
| XIII | Favorite | Steelers 35, Cowboys 31 | Steelers -3.5 |
| XII | Favorite | Cowboys 27, Broncos 10 | Cowboys -6 |
| XI | Favorite | Raiders 32, Vikings 14 | Raiders -4.5 |
| X | Underdog | Steelers 21, Cowboys 17 | Steelers -6.5 |
| IX | Favorite | Steelers 16, Vikings 6 | Steelers -3 |
| VIII | Favorite | Dolphins 24, Vikings 7 | Dolphins -6.5 |
| VII | Favorite | Dolphins 14, Redskins 7 | Dolphins -1.5 |
| VI | Favorite | Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3 | Cowboys -6 |
| V | Underdog | Colts 16, Cowboys 13 | Cowboys -2.5 |
| IV | Underdog | Chiefs 23, Vikings 7 | Vikings -12 |
| III | Underdog | Jets 16, Colts 7 | Colts -18 |
| II | Favorite | Packers 33, Raiders 14 | Packers -13.5 |
| I | Favorite | Packers 25, Chiefs 10 | Packers -14 |
Super Bowl ATS Betting Trends
The Chiefs, who enter Super Bowl 2021 as 3-point favorites at most top NFL betting sites, looks to make it three straight for the favorites. The Eagles were the last underdog to win, as four-point underdogs to Tom Brady and the mighty Patriots in 2018. Their 41-33 victory became the fifth underdog to win against the spread in seven years, and the eighth to win in 11 years.
Favorites once dominated in Super Bowls, winning 10 of 12 from 1992-2001 in what was the game’s blowout era — due in part to NFC supremacy over the Buffalo Bills, who not only lost four Super Bowls but went 0-4 against the spread. A tough run, but they at least had those conference championships to enjoy.
Things began to change in 2002, when the then-upstart Patriots knocked off the St. Louis Rams, who at -14 were the largest Super Bowl favorite since 1997.
That 20-17 New England victory kicked off a span of four straight Super Bowls in which underdogs won against the spread. Favorites haven’t won three straight in the NFL’s premier event since 1999-2001.
And the recent run of underdog victories had closed the overall record through 54 Super Bowls: 27 victories by favorites against the spread, 25 victories by underdogs and two pushes.
Every Super Bowl Over/Under Result
| Super Bowl | Over/Under Result | Score | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIV | Under | Chiefs 31, 49ers 20 | 54.5 |
| LIII | Under | Patriots 13, Rams 3 | 56.5 |
| LII | Over | Eagles 41, Patriots 33 | 49 |
| LI | Over | Patriots 34, Falcons 28 | 58 |
| 50 | Under | Broncos 24, Panthers 10 | 43.5 |
| XLIX | Over | Patriots 28, Seahawks 24 | 47.5 | XLVIII | Under | Seahawks 43, Broncos 8 | 47.5 |
| XLVII | Over | Ravens 34, 49ers 31 | 47 |
| XLVI | Under | Giants 21, Patriots 17 | 54 |
| XLV | Over | Packers 35, Steelers 31 | 45 |
| XLIV | Under | Saints 31, Colts 17 | 56.5 |
| XLIII | Over | Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 | 46.5 |
| XLII | Under | Giants 17, Patriots 14 | 54.5 |
| XLI | Under | Colts 29, Bears 17 | 48 |
| XL | Under | Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 | 47 |
| XXXIX | Under | Patriots 24, Eagles 21 | 47.5 |
| XXXVIII | Over | Patriots 32, Panthers 29 | 37.5 |
| XXXVII | Over | Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21 | 44 |
| XXXVI | Under | Patriots 20, Rams 17 | 53.5 |
| XXXV | Over | Ravens 34, Giants 7 | 33 |
| XXXIV | Under | Cardinals 23, Titans 16 | 48 |
| XXXIII | Push | Broncos 34, Falcons 19 | 53 |
| XXXII | Over | Broncos 31, Packers 24 | 49 |
| XXXI | Over | Packers 35, Patriots 21 | 49.5 |
| XXX | Under | Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 | 52 |
| XXIX | Over | 49ers 49, Chargers 26 | 54 |
| XXVIII | Under | Cowboys 30, Bills 13 | 50.5 |
| XXVII | Over | Cowboys 52, Bills 17 | 44.5 |
| XXVI | Over | Redskins 37, Bills 24 | 48.5 |
| XXV | Under | Giants 20, Bills 19 | 40.5 |
| XXIV | Over | 49ers 55, Broncos 10 | 48 |
| XXIII | Under | 49ers 20, Bengals 16 | 48 |
| XXII | Over | Redskins 42, Broncos 10 | 47 |
| XXI | Over | Giants 39, Broncos 20 | 40 |
| XX | Over | Bears 46, Patriots 10 | 37.5 |
| XIX | Over | 49ers 38, Dolphins 16 | 53.5 |
| XVIII | Under | Raiders 38, Redskins 9 | 48 |
| XVII | Over | Redskins 27, Dolphins 17 | 36.5 |
| XVI | Under | 49ers 26, Bengals 21 | 48 |
| XV | Under | Raiders 27, Eagles 10 | 37.5 |
| XIV | Over | Steelers 31, Rams 19 | 36 |
| XIII | Over | Steelers 35, Cowboys 31 | 37 |
| XII | Under | Cowboys 27, Broncos 10 | 39 |
| XI | Over | Raiders 32, Vikings 14 | 38 |
| X | Over | Steelers 21, Cowboys 17 | 36 |
| IX | Under | Steelers 16, Vikings 6 | 33 |
| VIII | Under | Dolphins 24, Vikings 7 | 33 |
| VII | Under | Dolphins 14, Redskins 7 | 33 |
| VI | Under | Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3 | 34 |
| V | Under | Colts 16, Cowboys 13 | 36 |
| IV | Under | Chiefs 23, Vikings 7 | 39 |
| III | Under | Jets 16, Colts 7 | 40 |
| II | Over | Packers 33, Raiders 14 | 43 |
| I | N/A | Packers 25, Chiefs 10 | N/A |
Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends
The Chiefs and 49ers put some points on the board, but with a high over/under set on the game it was not enough to allow Over bettors to cash.
In Super Bowl 54, the Patriots and Rams combined for just 16 points in Super Bowl 53, the lowest scoring Super Bowl in history. It also was the biggest gap between actual total and the sportsbooks' over/under line in history at 40 points. The result ended a trend of overs at five in six Super Bowls.
The only Super Bowl to finish under the number in that span was Denver’s 24-10 upset victory over the Panthers, a game that carried a total of 43.5. The under hit four straight years between 2005-08, but since then has won just five times in 12 seasons .
The Super Bowl over/under total has been at 43.5 or higher since 2004, the last year the title game featured an over/under in the 30s. In the 54 games from 1968-2020 — there was no over/under for Super Bowl I — the over has hit 26 times and the under 26 times, with one push.
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