FA Cup Shocks: Newcastle Looking For A Change Of Fortune

This weekend, the FA Cup third round takes centre stage as clubs from the lower leagues get a chance of grabbing the headlines by knocking out a Premier League side.

In this season's third round draw, 12 clubs from the lower leagues have been drawn against top flight teams, believing this could be their time to spring a surprise. 

Claiming a Premier League scalp brings a lot of publicity and it can also boost clubs struggling financially by easing their worries with a big pay day, especially if their tie is chosen to be broadcast live. 

As soon as the third round draw was made on December 3, BBC and ITV decided which four ties they would each broadcast live. 

Five of the eight chosen live games feature Premier League sides hoping to avoid embarrassment by losing to a club from a lower division. The FA Cup can often be regarded as a hindrance for some clubs who are fighting to stay in the Premier League or for those battling it out at the top of the table for the title or a place in Europe next season. 

Fixtures have come thick and fast over the Christmas period and this weekend is a chance for Premier League managers to make wholesale changes to rest key players and give fringe players some game time. If you are planning to place a bet on the FA Cup this weekend on football betting sites, it might be worth waiting until the teams have been announced to see how many changes each team has made. 

So, which clubs are in danger of being victims of a giant killing this weekend? At Gambling.com, we've analysed recent third rounds to see how many shocks there have been and how many changes manager have made for their ties.

Will Lady Luck Be With The Magpies?

Football fans can be very superstitious when it comes to following their team, with some supporters wearing the same underpants if they are on a winning streak. 'One for sorrow, two for joy' is another superstition used by fans to bring them some luck in the cup. It refers to how many magpies are seen within a certain period of time. Seeing one is meant to bring sorrow, while joy will come if two are seen. 

The way things have gone for Newcastle in the FA Cup in recent seasons, it's fair to assume that magpies are hard to spot in and around St James' Park in early January. Newcastle have failed to reached the fourth round in each of their last three seasons and in two of those they have been knocked out by teams from lower divisions. 

Last season, in the battle of the birds at Sheffield Wednesday, the Owls beat the Magpies 2-1 thanks to two goals from Josh Windass. Newcastle manager Eddie Howe made eight changes for that tie hoping his side would still come out on top. 

The previous season, Howe made three changes for the home tie with League One side Cambridge. After drawing 1-1 with Manchester United in their previous game 12 days earlier in the Premier League, they were favourites on most UK betting sites. But Joe Ironside's goal early in the second half secured a famous 1-0 win for Cambridge at St James' Park. 

Newcastle's third round struggles are nothing new as they were subject of one of the greatest ever giant killings when Hereford beat them 2-1 with Ronnie Radford scoring a stunning goal from distance in the Edgar Street mud in February 1972. It was the first time in 23 years a non-league side beat a team from the top flight in the competition. 

Newcastle's 15-mile trip to neighbours Sunderland this weekend is ITV's offering at lunchtime on Saturday, and they'll be doing all they can to avoid black cats walking in front of them before kickoff. Sunderland will fancy their chances and they are well priced at around 7/2 on betting apps to beat Newcastle. 

Is A Change As Good As A Rest?

Managers selecting their squads for this weekend's FA Cup ties, that get under way on Thursday night when Everton travel to Crystal Palace, are trying to find the right balance between fielding a team strong enough to win the tie, while also resting key players for important league games. 

Rest too many players and a club's hopes of winning the trophy will be over at the first hurdle and managers will come out with the well-used phrase 'we can concentrate on the league now'. For supporters a cup run is important as it gives them a chance to visit grounds they might not have been to in the past. 

Last season, Premier League clubs averaged 6.1 changes for their FA Cup third round ties from their previous game in the Premier League. 

Roy Hodgson made the fewest changes 12 months ago when he made just two changes to his Crystal Palace side that hosted Southampton. 

Palace were beaten 2-1 and despite losing their next league game, they kept their place in the Premier League. Southampton ended the season being relegated. 

Nottingham Forest boss Steve Cooper made 11 changes for his side's trip to Blackpool, but the wholesale changes backfired as the Championship side won 4-1. Forest however, did stay up at the end of the season. 

Cooper was sacked just before Christmas and new Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo has to decide how many changes he needs to make for this weekend's home game against the same opponent. 

Overall, there were nine wins for Premier League sides, eight defeats while Leeds' tie at Cardiff and Wolves' trip to Liverpool went to replays.