AFL Betting Tips Round 17: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
AFL Round 17 Predictions:
- Collingwood HT/FT Double - 1.95 With Bet365
- Brisbane Lions -81.5 Points - 1.90 With PlayUp
- St Kilda-Melbourne Under 157.5 Points - 1.90 With Bluebet
- Essendon by 1-39 points - 2.45 With Ladbrokes
Can you smell September yet? We’re now formally two-thirds of the way through the season and as each week progresses, three teams remain the standouts when it comes to Premiership contention: Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Brisbane have all won their last two matches, whilst those below them such as Melbourne and St Kilda have recently dropped points.
The Saints and Demons will be separated under the roof on Saturday night (draw notwithstanding), which is just as well lest we want the rain to ruin a second consecutive game involving Melbourne.
Some interesting patterns have emerged throughout the 2023 AFL season that we can use to tackle the latest odds from our favourite AFL betting sites for Round 17.
Here are some of our Round 17 predictions as well as some juicy player props that will hopefully make it an even better weekend!
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood Magpies, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
What a fascinating way to continue the round! Friday night football at a potentially sold out Marvel Stadium will see ladder leaders Collingwood Magpies (W13 L2) look to establish an outright lead at the top with a win against finals contenders Western Bulldogs (W9 L6), who themselves are back in form after a couple of soft victories.
The Dogs begin as underdogs and bring into this contest a 4-3 record as outsiders in 2023, in addition to the psychological advantage of wins against the Magpies in their 2022 and 2021 meetings, but their starts continue to be a bit of a concern.
Whilst they managed to gain handy wins against lowly Fremantle and North Melbourne by closing out the game in superior fashion, the Bulldogs have either trailed or led by no more than a goal at the half-time break in each of their last five matches.
This time, they’re up against a club that leads the league alongside Brisbane with more half-time/full-time wins (ten) than anyone else, which should give them the opportunity to establish an early advantage and keep it.
Bulldog midfielder Marcus Bontempelli has cleared 27+ disposals in five of his last six matches, including 31 against Port Adelaide, which makes the 1.87 that Bet365 are offering for him to do it again quite appealing instead of the low value 25+ disposal markets one would get elsewhere.
Tip: Collingwood HT/FT Double - 1.95 With Bet365
Player Prop: Marcus Bontempelli Over 26.5 Disposals - 1.87 With Unibet
Brisbane Lions v West Coast Eagles, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
Have you ever seen a pre-match line quite like this? Perhaps not since the early days of the GWS Giants and Gold Coast Suns where blowout margins were a weekly occurrence.
The mark for this game was creeping out towards 90 points before West Coast’s improved showing at home to St Kilda last week brought it back in. Their challenge now is to string together two decent performances, something which has eluded them right throughout the season.
West Coast have covered the closing line in just four of their 15 matches now, including nine losses by a 50+ point margin in their last 13 games.
Brisbane, meanwhile, have already dumped Richmond by 81 points and North Melbourne by 75 with some rampant football this year, and this opportunity for a percentage boost to potentially attack the top two later on is too good to pass up.
West Coast almost immediately introduced number one mid-season draft pick Ryan Maric to league football out of necessity, but he has been a much welcome asset to the side, kicking two goals in two of his three appearances so far.
Tip: Brisbane Lions -81.5 Points - 1.90 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Ryan Maric to kick 2+ goals - 4.0 With Ladbrokes
St Kilda Saints v Melbourne Demons, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)
It’s fourth versus fifth at Marvel Stadium, with plenty on the line for two clubs who have failed to establish some consistency in recent weeks.
The St Kilda Saints (W9 L6) and Melbourne Demons (W9 L6) have lost touch with the top three after both losing three of their last five games, and it looked like things were going to get even worse for the Saints after they allowed West Coast a half-time lead.
Five of the last six games between these sides were won by teams that were underdogs with betting sites, as were five of the ten most recent matches in 2023 involving either side, so whilst a St Kilda win could be a value play, it’s hard to take them after the starts they afforded West Coast and Brisbane recently.
What interests us instead is the total points mark, which at time of writing was an already modest 157.5. St Kilda’s matches are producing fewer total points (150.7) than those of any other club in 2023, whilst Melbourne is fifth for fewest points for and against this season.
In fact, Melbourne’s last seven matches finished with less than 157 points, which combined with St Kilda’s tough defending makes the ‘unders’ an exciting prospect.
St Kilda have scored the opening goal in each of their last four matches, spread between those who lurk around the forward 50. Anthony Caminiti, who has kicked goals in each of his last five matches despite collecting fewer than ten disposals, could be next in line at a big price!
Tip: St Kilda-Melbourne Under 157.5 Points - 1.90 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Anthony Caminiti First Goalscorer - 17.0 With Unibet
Essendon Bombers v Adelaide Crows, Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)
The AFL have potentially saved the ‘Match of the Round’ for the free-to-air Sunday afternoon slot, and with the odds for these sides almost close to a coin flip, the venue could be potentially decisive in separating them.
Essendon were one after the siren kick away from a fourth win as outsiders this year but still have questions to answer and can’t escape the fact their last four wins were all against clubs starting this round 14th or lower, whilst their last four clashes with current top-eight sides were unsuccessful.
But there’s no escaping they’ve covered the pre-game line in six of their last eight matches at Marvel Stadium, which includes three wins from three outings this year (albeit against Gold Coast, GWS and North Melbourne).
The Crows, on the other hand, have lost their last four games away from their beloved Adelaide Oval (Collingwood, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Geelong) and return to Marvel after three straight losses there in 2022 that began with a four-point defeat to Essendon.
A similarly tight result is expected, and if you favour the Bombers to edge out the Crows, you’ll get better value playing the 1-39 margin market than the line or head-to-head. Essendon spearhead Kyle Langford has kicked the opening goal on more occasions (four) than any other player this season, and yet he’s still not the favourite to do it again!
Tip: Essendon by 1-39 points - 2.45 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Kyle Langford First Goalscorer - 13.0 With Unibet
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