AFL Betting Tips Round 18: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch

The Brisbane Lions (W12 L4) have rarely earned the privilege of being able to sing the team song under the expanses of the Ponsford Stand, but their 12-game losing streak at the MCG was consigned to history when they defeated the Melbourne Demons (W10 L6) in last season’s semi-finals.

Melbourne put back-to-back losses behind them last week against St Kilda but still have more questions to answer after winning just one of their three games against fellow top four clubs this season, including an 11-point loss to the Lions at The Gabba despite kicking 13.4.

After they fell just a couple points short last week of covering the line for an 11th time this year (and they would have been the second club to do so after Essendon), the Lions are on a four-game winning streak in which they’re conceding an average of just 56 points and have amassed at least 24 scoring shots in each game.

This time they’re up against the second-best defence in the league (Melbourne concede 70 points a game on average), and coach Chris Fagan insists the Round 13 loss to Hawthorn at the MCG was not a matter of venue but came during a period of poor form.

We fancy they’ll edge ahead on this occasion, and with less than one goal difference between the 1-39 margin and the +3.5 point line, the value certainly lies with the 1-39 play.

Melbourne’s tall defenders such as Steven May are likely to be keeping Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood busy, which could open up an opportunity for small and dynamic forward Charlie Cameron to record his sixth 3+ goal haul of the season.

Tip: Brisbane Lions by 1-39 points - 2.65 With Bet365

Player Prop: Charlie Cameron to kick 3+ goals - 3.5 With Unibet

An enormous percentage of 137 had the Collingwood Magpies (W14 L2) sitting high at the top of the ladder after last week’s hard fought win over the Bulldogs, in which they ominously assumed control of the game with six goals in the so-called “Premiership quarter”. 

Being set a line of about 40 points by Australian AFL betting sites against the Fremantle Dockers (W7 L9) seems a fair number given they have an average winning margin of 44.5 points against clubs starting this round in the bottom half of the standings.

That said, there’s a little more in their favour. With a record of 17-1 from their last 18 home and away matches at the MCG, there’s no doubting that they’ll be a formidable task for an opposition that just last week couldn’t even cover +40 as favourites at home to Carlton.

Fremantle are back in the doldrums, losing four of their last five matches, whilst more importantly failing to cover the line in all four defeats. 

Their last trip to the MCG was a 20-point semi-final loss to Collingwood in which they held the Magpies to just 79 points, but this time around they come in with the 15th worst defensive record in the league prior to this round. 

Bet365 have set an interesting over/under mark of 28.5 disposals for Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw, whose disposal count has been 29 or higher in 10 consecutive games.

Tip: Collingwood Magpies -40.5 points - 1.90 With PlayUp

Player Prop: Andrew Brayshaw over 28.5 disposals - 1.87 With Ladbrokes

Carlton Blues v Port Adelaide Power, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)

Those who have been following this blog throughout the year may remember just how profitable Port Adelaide were for us in the first half of the season, particularly when Australian bookies priced in a supposed ‘away ground disadvantage’ at Marvel Stadium.

Three thumping 50+ point wins for the Carlton Blues (W7 D1 L8) have them back in finals contention amongst some pundits, and it’s just reward as the senior players rallied around their embattled coach and lifted their efforts on the field.

But - and forgive us for mentioning this pertinent fact once again - the Blues have not beaten any side starting this round in the top eight since Geelong in Round 2, and Premiership contenders Port Adelaide Power (W14 L2) will promise a much sterner test than Fremantle, Hawthorn and the Gold Coast.

Port Adelaide start this weekend as one of four clubs to have covered the line at least 10 times in 2023, have an imposing 8-1 record as favourites, whilst wins over St Kilda and Western Bulldogs this year stretched their record at Docklands to a perfect nine from nine since the pandemic.

They appear to have significantly long odds at one of their strongest venues against a club yet to prove themselves against the best of the best, and the 5.5 point line looks quite safe.

For a juicy player prop, we’re looking at one of two Port Adelaide players to have kicked the opening goal of a match three times in 2023: ‘SPP’ has done so despite having not having more than two goals to his name in a match since the Round 3 Showdown.

Tip: Port Adelaide -5.5 points - 1.90 With Bluebet

Player Prop: Sam Powell-Pepper First Goalscorer - 21.0 With Unibet