AFL Betting Tips 2024: Selections From The Semi-Finals And Betting Trends
The AFL semi-finals take place this week and we have picked out six plays for Friday's match between Port Adelaide and Hawthorn followed by the GWS Giants v Brisbane Lions clash a day later.
Port Adelaide Vs Hawthorn, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)
Hailed as one of the ‘form teams’ of the competition throughout the second half of the season, Hawthorn find themselves in the unexpected position of heading to the Adelaide Oval as favourites with Australian betting sites.
However, the Hawks have covered the pre-match line on more occasions (17) than any other side this season, doing so in each of their last eight games when going in as the favourites, including some big victories to close out the season.
They also boast a 4-0 record as away favourites in 2024, and we’ve all seen how far they’ve come since losing to the Power in Adelaide by just one point (Round 10), whilst Port will be sorely bruised by last week’s thumping loss to Geelong, which was their fourth consecutive finals defeat.
Best Bet: Hawthorn -8.5 Points To Beat Port Adelaide - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
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AFL Semi-Finals Predictions:
- Hawthorn -8.5 Points To Beat Port Adelaide - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
- Hawthorn HT/Hawthorn FT- 1.88 With Ladbrokes
- Willie Rioli To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.03 With Ladbrokes
- Giants Or Lions To Win By Fewer Than 24.5 Points - 1.78 With Ladbrokes
- Kai Lohmann To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.3 With Ladbrokes
- Tom Green 30+ Disposals - 1.64 With Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide Vs Hawthorn, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)
If the Hawks head into the sheds as half-time leaders, it could well be game over for the hosts based on recent history.
Since being handed a wake-up call in the first week of July by Geelong, Hawthorn have got into a tremendous habit of building an advantage and holding it.
Eight consecutive half-time leads have been converted into seven victories, with the sole exception coming away to preliminary finalists GWS - and even that game was lost by just two points.
Multi-Filler: Hawthorn HT/Hawthorn FT- 1.88 With Ladbrokes
One of the keys to Port’s potential success could be 88-game small forward Willie Rioli, who has to his name seven 2+ goal hauls from the Power’s last 10 victories.
When excluding one game against North Melbourne in Round 12 in which he was on the field for less than 20% of the time, Rioli is averaging 1.7 goals per game in 2024, making any price better than Evens with AFL betting apps for another 2+ goal total worth considering.
Couple that with 3+ goals in his last three appearances against the Hawks and it could be a value play, especially if you fancy Port Adelaide to bounce back!
Player Prop: Willie Rioli To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.03 With Ladbrokes
GWS Giants v Brisbane Lions, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
Just five points will separate these two Premiership hopefuls on Saturday night according to bookmakers who don’t appear to be giving much weight to the Giants’ 9-1 record from their last 10 home games against interstate teams.
Perhaps that’s because the Lions have won five of their six away matches, ending a five-game winning streak with that thrilling one-point defeat to Collingwood at the MCG that couldn’t derail their push for another Grand Final appearance.
These two sides have been involved in more games than most to be decided by a 1-39 point margin, with GWS either winning or losing by 40+ points on only three occasions this season and Brisbane just six.
We’re anticipating a much closer contest than the 54-point win enjoyed by the Giants when they hosted Brisbane in Canberra on ANZAC Day, and with a winner very difficult to pick in this one, will be opting for the 1-24 “tri-bet” market that allows punters to effectively sit on the fence at a good price.
Best Bet: Giants Or Lions To Win By Fewer Than 24.5 Points - 1.78 With Ladbrokes
Brisbane have been getting some decent contributions out of 21-year-old Maryborough and Ballarat product Kai Lohmann who has been growing into his role throughout the season.
Starting with a performance against Richmond that earned him a Rising Star nomination, Lohmann has registered seven 2+ goal hauls in his last 15 appearances, including each of his last three.
Prior to that he kicked 0.2 in consecutive games, including one at home to GWS, so he continued to create goal scoring opportunities and has since enjoyed a better conversion rate.
On that basis, a price of 2.30 or thereabouts looks well worth taking.
Player Prop: Kai Lohmann To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.3 With Ladbrokes
Tom Green is the individual favourite with most Australian betting apps to rack up at least 30 possessions and understandably so, having last week overtaken team-mate Lachie Whitfield to top the league table for most disposals this season with 737 (30.71 per game).
He’s a superbly consistent and reliable player when it comes to 30+ disposal markets, hitting that threshold in two-thirds of games this season, but it’s on his home turf where his possession game lifts even further.
Green has cleared the 30+ disposal count in nine of his last 10 games at ENGIE Stadium, and in addition hit 37 in the Giants’ big win over Brisbane earlier this season, making him a compelling choice for AFL punters.
Player Prop: Tom Green 30+ Disposals - 1.64 With Ladbrokes
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