AFL Grand Final Tips 2024: 6 Selections For Sydney Swans Vs Brisbane Lions
The ‘Barassi Line’ has finally been breached, with Saturday's 2024 AFL Grand Final the first between two clubs from the NRL heartlands of New South Wales and Queensland.
It’s one of the most exciting times of the year for Australian betting sites, some of whom are offering as many as 200 different markets.
After a successful and profitable inaugural year offering value tips and the best odds for some popular player props to our loyal followers, it’s time to bow out in style with six selections for the final game of the year.
Sydney Swans Vs Brisbane Lions, Saturday, 2:30pm (AEST)
One accurate kick shy of lifting the trophy last year, the Lions are hellbent on going one better against a side they’ve defeated in each of the last three head-to-heads by margins of two to 24 points.
Weakened by the loss of starting ruckman Oscar McInerney but strengthened by the feat of having ended a 20-year winless run away to Geelong last weekend, the Lions have a 2-1 record at the MCG this year, having defeated the Cats and Demons.
They’ve been inferior across the season to Sydney in both points scored per game (93 to 97) and points conceded (77 to 76) but are in front of the Swans on many key metrics such as inside 50s, contested possessions, clearances and marks, all of which make them the superior match-up.
The Lions have also beaten the odds on many occasions this year, going into the grand final as the only team of the competition undefeated as outsiders (W4 D1).
We’re expecting them to use the heartbreak of last year’s narrow loss to get over the line in a tight contest.
Best Bet: Brisbane To Beat Sydney - 2.1 With Unibet
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AFL Final Predictions:
- Brisbane To Beat Sydney - 2.1 With Unibet
- Brisbane To Lead At Quarter Time - 2.05 With PlayUp
- Charlie Cameron First Goalscorer - 13.00 With Bet365
- Charlie Cameron To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.05 With Unibet
- Logan McDonald To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.45 With Ladbrokes
- Josh Dunkley 25+ Disposals - 2.15 With Bet365
AFL Grand Final Betting Tips: Fast Start For Lions
Brisbane’s incredible 40-point comeback against GWS in the semi-finals was a sole exception in a pattern that spans back to a loss to Hawthorn on the last weekend of May.
They were the quarter-time leaders in all but one of their last 15 matches and it’s no coincidence they came out on top on almost every occasion, losing only to the Giants and Magpies in mid-August before recovering to win four straight matches heading into this Grand Final.
Compare that with the Swans who were ahead at the quarter-time break in only two of their last eight matches, scoring an average of just 15 first-quarter points in that sequence but conceding nearly 30 in return.
Regardless of how you fancy the final outcome to play out, follow the trend and take better than Evens with PlayUp for the Lions to be in front at the first change.
Multi-Filler: Brisbane To Lead At Quarter Time - 2.05 With PlayUp
Sydney Swans Vs Brisbane Lions Tips: Cameron A Big Price
It’s a complete lottery at the best of times, and yet much like the Melbourne Cup, one of the most difficult markets of the entire game appears to be one of the more popular with punters.
Whilst we certainly don’t recommend these high risk, high payout markets from a betting education point of view, we’re here to help lean those of you who wish to have a throw at the stumps into the best options.
Brisbane lead Sydney 14 to 11 when it comes to kicking the opening goal of the game, and the bulk of their first goals have come from an unsurprising trio.
Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher and Cam Rayner registered Brisbane’s first goal of a match on six, five and four separate occasions respectively this season.
Cameron also stands out with four opening match goals compared with three each from the other two.
For the men in red, Joel Amartey and Will Hayward kicked the first Sydney goal of a game four times each in 2024, whilst Logan McDonald did so on three occasions, whilst no Swan opened the scoring with the first goal of the game more than twice.
Charlie Cameron could therefore be your best option at 13.00 with AFL betting sites, especially if you choose to take the shorter odds for him to record the first team goal rather than match goal.
First Goalscorer: Charlie Cameron - 13.00 With Bet365
AFL Final Prediction: Double Up On Cameron
Should Cameron open the scoring for the Lions, we would be halfway to another even-money collect.
The Brisbane small forward goes into the Grand Final on a four-game streak for 2+ hauls and has been an impeccably consistent performer on the big stage.
He's got an outstanding strike rate of nearly 70% when it comes to booting 2+ goals in his 22 finals appearances, which improves to 85% from his 13 finals since the start of 2020.
Sydney kept him quiet in the last two head-to-heads, but his proven ability to deliver in high-stakes environments should shine through here.
Player Prop: Charlie Cameron To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.05 With Unibet
AFL Grand Final Predictions: Logan On A Run
Speaking of the big stage, one Swans player who has performed well recently at the SCG is forward McDonald.
McDonald has just nine 2+ goal hauls to his name from his 25 matches this year, but three of those nine came in each of Sydney's three appearances at the MCG (4, 3 and 3 goals).
He was cleared to play following a potential ankle scare last weekend and, with four goals to his name from two games against the Lions, you can back him with confidence at 2.45 with Australian bookmakers to get amongst the action this weekend.
Player Prop: Logan McDonald To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.45 With Ladbrokes
Swans Vs Lions Predictions: Count On Dunkley
We’re also expecting the only current Premiership player on the Brisbane Lions’ list to play a leading role in his fourth Grand Final.
Dunkley’s possession count topped 25 in only one of his three Grand Final appearances, but he has been a much busier ball player in 2024, which has been the second-best of his entire career in terms of average possessions per game (25.46).
That average has been rising steadily, albeit slightly, in recent weeks thanks to three counts of 27+ in his last five outings, and with 27+ in seven of his last eight games at the MCG, this is a ground on which he has long thrived.
Player Prop: Josh Dunkley 25+ Disposals - 2.15 With Bet365
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