NBA Basketball Over/Under Betting: Key Factors to Consider
Analytics have come roaring into the NBA the last few years especially when it comes to betting on the NBA. Points per game have been replaced by efficiency, net rating, pace and a handful of other non-box score numbers that become much better indicators of a team’s offensive worth.
In this full break down of key factors to consider when Over/Under betting on basketball, and the NBA specifically, we’ll get to explanations on all of that, and why it will help when deciding where to place your money on over-unders.
Pay Attention to Pace of Game
True, every game is 48 minutes (assuming no overtime). But the number of possessions a team has in a given game can change drastically based on opponent. A simple look at points per game, or how many points a team has allowed during a recent stretch, can help. But pace is critical.
During the 2016-17 NBA season, the Brooklyn Nets averaged 103.58 possessions per game. That same year the Utah Jazz averaged 93.62 possessions. Brooklyn played at a pace of nearly 10 possessions faster, the greatest discrepancy between the fastest and slowest teams in a single season since 2010. Pace matters. Every team is playing faster these days – average league paced topped 97.0 in 2018 for the first time since 1991. But, by definition, half the league will play below league average.
It’s important not only to look at points per game and points allowed. Understand the styles of play each team likes to implement. Yes, the top oddsmakers likely have taken that into account when setting the over-under. But it can be even more pronounced than what it looks on the surface, all because of pace. A slower team is more likely to speed up against a fast-paced team than vice versa. Take into account how fast (or slow) a game will be played when considering the point total.
Take Rest Days into Account
NBA players are creature of habit. If the NBA scheduling messes with routine, there are ripple effects. Teams play a majority of their games on one day of rest. In 2018, teams played 1,463 of 2,460 games with one day off in between, or just under 60 percent. So it isn’t surprising that teams on one day of rest averaged more points per game (106.5) than they did on zero days of rest (104.3) or two days rest (106.2).
One key takeaway is that teams struggled to score on zero days of rest. In 2018, half of the teams in the league had their lowest scoring output in games without any rest by more than two points. And if you take out a massive outlier in the 2018 Warriors, who averaged 117.3 points on no days rest, the league average falls to 103.8 points.
The same is true for zero rest days defensively, but it’s not as pronounced. In 2018, teams with zero days rest allowed an average of 106.9 points, compared to 106.0 on one day of rest and 106.2 on two days’ rest. As a whole, teams playing on zero days rest had games that averaged 211.2 total points, lower than one day rest (212.5) and 2 days of rest (212.4). It’s just a single point, but it’s a trend that shows offenses struggle in back-to-back settings. It’s something to consider.
High Scoring Teams Go Over
Let’s not overthink this one. From 2011 to 2018, of the 15 teams each year whose games went over the most (120 total teams), 78 of them finished the year ranked in the top half in the NBA in points per game. That’s 65 percent of the highest “over” totals teams being among the top half of the league’s highest-scoring offenses.
While oddsmakers certainly will take into consideration these high-scoring teams when setting their totals, the best offenses in the league have a tendency to take off and score at will…even higher than where lines are set.
Points per game have gone up in the NBA each of the last seven seasons, and average efficiency has reached 108.6 or better for a second straight year, the first time that’s happened since 1992 and 1993. It’s tough for sportsbooks to keep up with the growing trend of offensive output. So chances are if you’ve got a high scoring team involved in a game, it’s going over.
Check Out: Legal Ontario Sports Betting sites and major sports to bet on.
Referee Statistics are a Thing
There isn’t another sport affected more on a game-by-game basis than basketball. And just as it’s important to take player and team statistics into account when considering an over-under, looking at which referees are officiating the game also matters. In 2017-18, 35 officials refereed 50 or more games.
The amount of personal fouls called by those referees ranged from 37.9 to 42.5. The total points per game in those officials’ games ranged from 206.9 to 222.1.
Oddsmakers will factor this in to their decision-making, but it’s safe for a better to also add (or subtract) a point or two based on which three-man crew is officiating the game. The discrepancies can be significant and, as all gamblers understand, fouls and free throws can and will make or break an over-under bet.
Recommended Betting Sites
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Register with BETFRED50 First bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply.Daily 'Super Extra Places' on RacingOdds Boosts on Next Goalscorer BetsSponsors all 5 Flat Horse Racing ClassicsBETFRED50Bonus CodeThe code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)Live StreamingIs there live streaming of sporting events?YesUser RatingGambling.com users' rating of this betting site out of 10098Bet BuilderCan you create your own personalised bets?YesCash OutCan you cash out of bets before an event has finished?YesAcca InsuranceRefund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet downYesKnown as the 'Bonus King', Betfred has more promos and bonuses than the majority of competitors. This is the first bookmaker ever to sponsor all five flat racing classics and also sponsors Super League Rugby and World Matchplay Darts.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Get a percentage boost on all football multibets of 4 or more selections. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers online only. Eligibility restrictions apply. Only valid with code B10G40SPORTS on registration. £10 min qualifying bet at 1/1 (2.0) odds or greater across sports. Receive £20 Free Sports Bet and 100 x 20p Extra Spins on Gold Blitz within 48 hours of qualifying bet settlement. 7-day expiry on free bets. Your first bet will be your qualifying bet. One per customer. UK & ROI customers only. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. Gambleaware.org.Full T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Customers Only. Max one £20 Free Bet. Qualifying bets at Odds of 1/1(2.00) or greater. Paid as Bonus Token with Min 4/5(180) Odds Req. Skrill, Neteller & Paypal not eligible. T&Cs Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Min. $/€10 deposit and bet on odds 1/1 or greater required. Extra bets and bonus spins are issued within 24 hours of the qualifying bet being settled. Extra bet valid for 14 days, stake not returned. Bonus spins are valid for 24 hours, only available on the Book of Dead game. Terms and Conditions apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Opt in & bet £10+ via mobile on any football market at 2.00+ odds within 7 days. No Cash out. Get 6x £5 Free Bets on selected markets. Free bets expire in 7 days. Card payments & Apple Pay only. T&Cs apply, see below. GambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Customers only. Must have a minimum of 3 bets of £10 or more on separate events at odds of evens (2.0) or bigger on first day. First day losses equals all settled stakes less all returns. T&C's apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. gambleaware.org. T&C Apply
- 10#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. First deposit minimum £20, minimum Bet £20 at minimum odds 1/1 (2.00) and Get a £20 Free Bet with minimum odds of 4/5 (1.80). Eligible bets: Single, Combo, Bet Builder. Max 1 free bet per customer. Free bet tokens credited within 24 hours, valid for 3 days. System bets excluded. Full Terms apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Available once per household. Max. FreeBet amount: £10 Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is: £10 Void/cancelled or cashed out bets do not count towards wagering to activate the free bet. Offer valid only to customers making a first deposit of £10 or more. Offer only applies to players who are residents of United Kingdom and Irland.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 on any football market at minimum 1/1 odds. No cash out. Get £40 in Free Bets on selected events. Free Bets expire in 7 days. T&Cs apply, see below. gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New bettors; Code SPORT; Wager deposit & bonus 8x; Max qualifying bet stake=initial bonus; Valid 60 days; Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. £10 in real money. Bets placed on sports at odds of 2.00 ore more to qualify. Bets must be placed 24 hours within of registration. £10 free bets must be wagered on sports. Cashback is cash without restrictions. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ | New Customer Only – Promo Code: NEWWELCOME100 required | 50% back on net LOSSES over your first 3 calendar days | requires min 3 x£10 qualifying bets in same 3 days| Min return £1 free bet | T&Cs apply | Available until 01/09/24 at 23:59 | UK residents using debit card | Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Deposit and bet on any sportsbook markets of your choice at odds of evens (2.00) or greater. Get 50% back of your first days losses as a Free Bet up to £50 plus 50 Extra Spins. Min. 3 bets required. If your account is up, you’ll receive a £5 Free Bet regardless plus 10 Extra Spins. Use coupon code "5050" at registration. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only | GambleAware.org | Gamble Responsibly.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10+ at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x Free Bets: x1 £10 Football, x1 £10 Acca, x 1 £10 BetBuilder, x1 £10 Horse Racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. Exclusions Apply. T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. UK Only | 18+ | T&C'S Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs and deposit exclusions apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org. 18+
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New reg only. Claim by placing a min deposit £10 via ‘My Offers’ page within 30 days. 7 days to stake max £10 in-play, min odds 1/1 (2.0). Max. extra winnings £100. Once claimed, 30-day expiry. Cashed out, System & EW bets do not qualify. Other Promotional Play Restrictions Apply. T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Qualifying bet of £10 at min. odds 2.0 within 5 days of registration, E/W excluded. Get 3x Free Bets at min odds 2.0 each. 1x£10 Football, 1x£10 Racing, 1x£10 Acca (Min 4 selections). 7-day expiry. New selected customers & 18+ only. Min. deposit of £10. Full T&Cs apply. Promotion available on desktop and web only and is not offered via the kwiff apps.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. [Gambleaware.org|https://www.gambleaware.org/]. Get a percentage boost on all football multibets of 4 or more selections. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. T&Cs Apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New UK+IRE Customers. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 1x £20 free bet. Free bet available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ | New UK players only | Min deposit req. £10 | Certain deposit methods excluded | Place 1 sport bet (3+ selections) | Excl Horse Racing | Min stake £10 | Max stake £20 | Min Odds 2/1 (3.0) | Max FreeBet £20 for football only | FreeBet valid for 7 days | FreeBet stake not returned | T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New members only. £10+ bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days on sportsbook only. 2x£5 Free Bets for Bet Builder only. Stake not returned. T&Cs + deposit exclusions apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org 18+.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of £10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from receipt. Limited to 1 sport & 5 casino brand/s within the network. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply. Full Terms Apply. 18+ | BeGambleAware | #Ad.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ T&Cs
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players only. Max. Free Bet Token amount: £10.Minimum Deposit: £15. Minimum wagering on Sport to activate the Free Bet Token: £15
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New 18+ New Customers only. Deposit and bet on any sports with min odds of 2.0. Get 50% Back of your first days' losses as a Free bet up to £50+£20 Casino Bonus. T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+. New customers. Max £10 (exc. PayPal). 100% Odds Boost Token. Keep it fun - set your deposit limit. Full T&Cs apply. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Cash back without wagering the day after if the player loses all the money in the account. Min deposit £10. Gameplay is monitored. Full T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Min £10 deposit and bet on odds 1/1 or greater required. deposits via Paypal, Neteller, Pasafe, Skrill or Skrill 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer. Extra bet and bonus spins issued within 24 hours of quailfying bet being settled. Extra bet valid for 14 days, stake not returned. Bonus spins valid for 24 hours, selected games only.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 17.10.2022. 3x £10 free bets. Free bets expire after 30 days. New customers signing up through mobile or tablet device only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #ad - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £15 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at a min. odds of 1/1 (2.00) or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of £30, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill deposits. Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. gambleaware.org. T&C Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New UK+IRE Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 5x £5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Min stake £2. Min legs 3. Max win £1,000. Min odds 3.0. Max £25 back as a Free Bet on losing bets only. 7 days to use free bet at odds 2.0+. Full T and Cs apply. Play responsibly GambleAware®: Gambling Help & Gambling Addiction • T&Cs apply - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+. Please Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org, Customers must place a acca of at least £10 on any English leagues with 4 selections or more minimum odds 1/2 (1.5) per selection. First bet placed will qualify. £5 Free Bet will be given on settlement. Valid once a week until 22nd May 2022.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet £10 on any EPL match (odds 1/1+) within 3 days of sign up. No cash-out. Get 5x£5 Free Bets for set markets (odds 1/1+) and a £5 Slots Bonus on Age of the Gods: God Of Storms, 30x wagering, max redeemable £125. Bonuses expire in 14 days. No cash-out. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £15, Max £10 Free Bet valid for 14 days. Bets Must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. Neteller, Skrill and PayPal not eligible. T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Min £ 20 qualifying bets stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £ 40, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. gambleaware.org. T&C Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+. T&C Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New player only, 1st deposit, min deposit £15, Max £15 Free Bet valid for 14 days, Bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller, Skrill and Payapl not eligible. T&C apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. This promotion is for new customers only. - Sign up using the promo code bet20get10 and make a minimum deposit of £20. - Place a minimum £20 cash bet at odds of Evens (2.0) or greater and receive a £10 Free Bet
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+. New customers only. Min. £10 deposit. 3x bonus WR. Bonus expires in 30 days. Payment, withdrawal, player, time restrictions apply. Terms Apply. Play responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.