2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup Analysis, Odds and Tips: How Far Can The Boomers Go?

Four years after Rudy Fernández and Spain lifted their second FIBA World Cup in Beijing, 32 nations are descending upon east Asia with all roads leading to the 15,000-seat Mall of Asia Arena in Manila for the final on September 10 and betting sites have odds at the ready.

Australia’s Boomers got through six hard-fought wins on their way to the semi-finals in 2019 when they took eventual champions Spain to a double overtime that ended in a fatigued fadeout. 

Head coach Brian Goorjian goes around for his first FIBA World Cup since 2006 (round of 16 loss to USA) and this time leads what is arguably the most talented Boomers roster ever to enter a World Cup.

Exchange betting sites are respecting their pedigree by grading Australia as third-favourites (or thereabouts) behind standout five-time champions USA and Tokyo silver medallists France.

We’ve scanned our eyes over the futures markets as well as the Boomers’ opening game against Finland to bring you our four best bets for what should be a fascinating event across three different countries.

Boomers Group Stage Fixtures

(all played in Okinawa, Japan)

• vs Finland, 25 August 6:00pm AEST
• vs Germany, 27 August 6:30pm AEST
• vs Japan, 29 August 9:10pm AEST

U-S-A All The Way!

Sometimes there’s no fun in backing favourites, but sometimes there appears to be little sense in playing around them. This could be one of those situations.

They head to Manila looking to break away from former Yugoslavia to become the first nation to win six FIBA World Cups and bookmakers have them as very strong favourites to do so.

Some have argued that the Americans were handed the World Cup the moment the draw was completed. 

Through sheer fortune, they’ve ended up on the other half of the draw to their nearest competitors such as Spain, France, Canada and Australia, and they could in fact (should things work out that way) avoid all four of those nations until the semi-finals.

This affords a squad with no international experience ample opportunity to perfect their gameplan, rotations, and manage the workload of stars such as Jaren Jackson, Jalen Brunson and Brandon Ingram.

Their dominant performance in the early stages of 2019, where they advanced into the quarter-finals with a points difference of +107 from five wins, suggests they’ll be taking every opponent seriously irrespective of the draw.

Albeit with a different roster and head coach, the Olympic champions avenged their elimination to France in 2019 and Steve Kerr should know how to get the best out of them at the business end of the tournament.

It pays to shop around particularly in futures markets, and at the time of writing Bet365 were offering close to even money, standing out above the rest.

Tip: USA to win the World Cup - 1.9 With Bet365 

Group H: Who Wins This Two-Horse Race?

One futures bet that caught our eye during our production of this piece was that Bet365, unlike the rest of the competition, are rating France as narrow favourites ahead of Canada to win Group H. 

The only thing that Australian betting apps are agreeing on is that the two basketball powerhouses are practically guaranteed progression through to the next round, and the victor of their matchup will carry a crucial advantage into a cut-throat Group L that will also almost certainly include Spain.

Canada brings to this World Cup a golden generation jam packed with NBA superstars such as RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks and OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is joint-favourite for the tournament top point scorer with the best basketball betting sites.

France are a formidable threat blessed with experienced talent, though the absence of young superstar Victor Wenbanyama doesn’t do them any favours, whilst their 10-game winning streak leading into the World Cup came to an end at the hands of the Boomers last week.

If you believe the Canadians have an edge on France in Group H, the best thing you can do is to take the 2.1 on offer for them to win the group.

It’s a much better price than any other book, including Ladbrokes themselves, are offering for Canada to win their opening game against France, which is almost certain to be the one that decides the group winner. 

Tip: Canada to win Group H - 2.1 with Ladbrokes

But Will Canada Get Past The Boomers?

If you’re sitting on the French side of the fence - or even if you’re not - we’ve come across one particularly interesting play that looks to be sound value.

Bet365 offers some interesting head-to-head tournament matchups on which nation will finish with the highest classification, and whilst it’s difficult to find value in markets priced at around 107%, we can back this one quite confidently.

Should Canada fail against the French and finish second in Group H, they’re almost certainly going to have to defeat the world’s highest ranked nation (Spain) to get through to the quarter-finals, where they could possibly face the Boomers themselves.

The Australians, on the other hand, are likely to be grouped with Slovenia and Venezuela (as well as the other Group E nation) in the second round, which gives them quite a soft path into the quarter-finals. 

We expect Australia to be shorter than 1.8 if they are to face Canada in the quarter-finals, whilst they’re certainly in a better position than the Canadians to get there in the first place.

Tip: Australia to finish above Canada - 1.8 With Bet365  

Australia’s First Game Will Be…A Free Scoring Affair

Finland aren’t expected to progress out of the group ahead of Australia and Germany, but won’t be easy beat against any of their three opponents and should get past host nation Japan.

Much like the USA, they’ve taken a youthful roster to the World Cup hoping to groom and develop a team that will be successful together for many years to come. 

They got within 10 points of eventual champions Spain at the 2022 EuroBasket tournament, lost by six points to third-placed Germany in the qualifying event for this World Cup, and warmed up with two tight matches against rank number eight Lithuania, one of which they won.

Eight of their 11 competitive matches since the start of the last EuroBasket cleared the total points handicap set for this game, and they’re led by Utah forward Lauri Markkanen who earned an All-Star appearance in the previous NBA season with an average of 25 points per game. 

The Boomers, meanwhile, sharpened up by averaging 87 points scored in their four warm-up victories across August. 

Tip: Finland-Australia Over 167.5 points  - 1.9 with Ladbrokes