AFL Betting Tips 2024, Round 19: Top Picks And Betting Trends

• Essendon To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.2 @ PlayUp
• St Kilda-West Coast under 164.5 Points - 1.9 @ Unibet
• Hawthorn To Win - 1.88 @ Ladbrokes

Three successful player prop picks last weekend mean that followers of our regular AFL best bets blog would have come out on top with a profit of nearly 20% with even staking.

Round 19 could be one of the most decisive weekends of the entire season as far as the race for the top eight goes, with two top-eight fixtures headlining the Sunday afternoon programme, and almost every other game features at least one side still in the hunt for finals. 

We’ll pick out some compelling bets from our favourite Australian betting sites for two of those matches, whilst there is also a lengthy trend involving the St Kilda Saints that caught our eye from a betting perspective.

Essendon v Adelaide, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)

Round 19 commences on Friday night under the roof of Marvel Stadium, where Essendon have won all five of their outings with an impressive average score of 95 points. 

They’ll almost certainly appreciate the change of scenery after three consecutive outings at the MCG as well as the sight of an opposition against whom they’re currently enjoying a seven-game winning streak.

Inaccurate kicking of 10.18 almost cost them a win in the reverse head-to-head at the Adelaide Oval, but they have for the most part been a lot better in that department recently, especially at Marvel Stadium where they’re kicking with an accuracy of better than 61%.

Adelaide lost their last head-to-head at Marvel Stadium by 18 points (115-97) at a similar part of the 2023 season, but could be inspired by their most recent visit to this venue where they picked up their first win of the season against a Carlton side who were at the time undefeated (4-0). 

Upsetting the odds hasn’t been a regular feature of their season to date, losing seven out of 10 games as the underdogs so far, including a 1-5 record as the away outsider. 

The Bombers rarely put together bad performances and have the important advantage of home territory, so we’re anticipating them to pick up a win by less than 40 points and will take the 2.20 offered by PlayUp. 

Essendon’s Jye Caldwell fell just short of a fourth consecutive 25+ disposal haul against Melbourne, but if you fancy him to repeat the 26 he managed against Adelaide earlier in the season, 1.65 at Bet365 was the best price available at time of writing. 

Best Bet: Essendon To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.2 @ PlayUp

Player Prop: Jye Caldwell to get 25+ disposals - 1.65 @ Bet365

St Kilda v West Coast, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)

The 2024 season will effectively be over for the loser of the second clash of the round at Marvel Stadium, where the Saints have been involved in some low-scoring matches that could cure insomnia.

It makes for an incredibly compelling betting trend in which nine of St Kilda's last 10 games at Docklands finished under the pre-match total points handicap. 

In fact, their seven games there this year averaged just 144 total points, 20 points below the mark offered by most AFL betting apps. 

Whilst a 164-point threshold has been set because of West Coast's porous defence, they have scored 70+ in only two of seven attempts since their last victory and are unlikely to make a significant contribution against the league's fifth best defence.

We won't be looking towards any goalscorer plays in light of our main pick, but instead found what we believe is a sound same-game multi-booster.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is amongst the favourites to register 25+ disposals. He has an 80% success rate, doing so in 12 of 16 games including in nine of his last 10. 

Best Bet: St Kilda-West Coast under 164.5 Points - 1.9 @ Unibet
Player Prop: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 25+ disposals - 1.5 @ Bet365

Hawthorn v Collingwood, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)

Who would have imagined in May, let alone April, that Hawthorn would be favourites in a game against Collingwood? This pair have been amongst the big movers on the ladder in the last month, but heading in opposite directions.

Magpies coach Craig McRae conceded that “time is running out” for his team after three consecutive losses, all to clubs now ranked higher than them on the ladder, left them one win out of the eight. 

Some hope could come from a four-game winning streak against the six teams below them including Hawthorn, so they need to take full advantage of games against the Hawks and Tigers to sharpen up for a tough run home in August. 

The Hawks have to turn around what was only a five-point loss to Collingwood back in April, which was included in their 0-5 start to 2024, and on the basis of where the two sides are now at, that should not be difficult.

Not only have Hawthorn continued to overachieve by covering the pre-match line in all but one of their last 10 outings, but for some strange reason, the side occupying the home dressing room at either the MCG, Adelaide Oval (Magic Round) or Giants Stadium (Covid) in games between these teams would go on to win!

Mabior Chol has been instrumental to Hawthorn’s resurgence this season and, despite being the favourite with most AFL betting sites to kick 2+ goals, still presents good value based on his form.

Chol accumulated just six goals in his first five appearances of 2024, all of which were in defeat, but has since cleared 2+ goals in seven out of 10 games, including in losses to Geelong and Port Adelaide.

On that basis, the price of 1.73 that was available on Ladbrokes prior to teams being named looks to be quite generous. 

Best Bet: Hawthorn To Win - 1.88 @ Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Mabior Chol 2+ goals - 1.73 @ Ladbrokes