AFL Betting Tips Round 11: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
AFL Round 11 Predictions:
- Carlton to win by 1-39 points - 2.1 @ PlayUp
- Richmond-Essendon under 165.5 points - 1.9 @ Ladbrokes
- Hawthorn +16.5 points - 1.9 @ Unibet
It’s Round 11 of the 2024 AFL season and just two wins separated third from 11th heading into this round, which will make for some high stakes late season games if it continues.
Sydney reasserted themselves as outright Premiership favourites with a sixth consecutive win that dumped Carlton out of the top eight and they once again take centre stage on Thursday night against a Bulldogs side that could jump into the eight on percentage if they can replicate last week’s upset defeat of GWS.
Collingwood joined the Giants as equal-second favourites with some AFL betting sites with their third straight win, and seventh in a row without defeat including the ANZAC Day draw, vindicating those who believed their slow start to the season was only temporary.
As we have done right throughout the season, we have assessed the markets to pick three plays from this weekend’s matches as well as find you the right prices on some popular player bets so that you can get the best return on your investment.
Carlton v Gold Coast, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
Only percentage (albeit a significant 10 percentage points) splits Carlton and Gold Coast after vastly different results last weekend.
The lid flew off amongst some supporters in mid-April following a Round 6 win over GWS but three losses from their four matches since - all three of which were against clubs starting this round in the top five - have since put them back in their place.
They could therefore consider that to be a bit of a difficult run and should get back to winning ways under the Marvel Stadium roof, where they have won five of their last seven matches.
Their opponents are sky high after thrashing an off-colour Geelong in Darwin last weekend, but before they can be considered genuine finals contenders they need to straighten their away form up.
Gold Coast are yet to win outside of Queensland or the NT, losing 10 consecutive away games including all three in 2024 in which they were the outsiders.
Last weekend’s performance gives us confidence that they’ll give a good account of themselves against the Blues without winning, and that there is therefore a bit of value in taking the 1-39 margin.
Charlie Curnow is on a four-game run of 3+ goals at Marvel Stadium, including three this year, and when combining that with his seven goals against the Suns last year, the 1.75 offered by exchange betting sites appeals.
Best Bet: Carlton to win by 1-39 points - 2.1 @ PlayUp
Player Prop: Charlie Curnow 3+ goals - 1.75 @ Bet365
Richmond v Essendon, Saturday, 7:40pm (AEST)
The annual ‘Dreamtime at the G’ marquee match is always a tremendously well-attended affair, but betting sites are anticipating it to be a non-contest on the field.
They’ve put 40 points between these two teams, who were 17th and second respectively heading into the round following Richmond’s six straight games without a win and Essendon’s six without defeat.
Those are some two compelling streaks, but given the size of the line, we instead turned our attention to the total points market and found a couple of trends pointing in one direction.
Essendon notched up a ton for the first time in eight outings last week, against the only other club faring worse than Richmond (North Melbourne), and are going to need to do it again for this game to exceed the total points mark if the Tigers live up to their average of 69 points per game this year.
Given they’re taking on an opposition currently in the top four, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers doing that here.
Seven of the last nine games between these teams fell short of the 165.5 point line set by Australian bookies, and with Richmond kicking only five or six goals in each of their last four games, it looks set to become eight of 10.
Zach Merrett has dined out against the Tigers in recent years, clearing 30+ disposals in each of his last six H2H appearances.
If you fancy his chances of doing so yet again, Bet365 is the place to be, with their odds of 1.65 well clear of many competitors.
Best Bet: Under 165.5 total points - 1.9 @ Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Zach Merrett 30+ disposals - 1.65 @ Bet365
Hawthorn v Brisbane, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
Brisbane’s record of 2-5 as favourites in 2024 sums up the season they have had so far, but as they drew closer to being written off (and perhaps even head coach Chris Fagan losing his job), they returned to the winner’s circle in emphatic fashion.
An emphatic 119-point win at home to Richmond hasn’t changed their Premiership odds, but it does now mean they’re on their longest undefeated run (W2 D1) of this season.
Ominously for Hawthorn, it also means they appear to be in the mood for bashing minnows after the embarrassment of drawing with Adelaide two rounds back.
The Lions have also mastered the art of winning under the Docklands roof, triumphing in eight of their last nine games against all opponents.
But… nobody can deny that the Hawks are on the up and in much better shape. They were one kick away from a third straight victory last weekend, almost causing one of the upsets of the season after victories against fellow bottom-10 clubs Western Bulldogs and St Kilda.
They have covered the main pre-game line in each of their last four games against the Lions as well as four of their last five against all opposition, and their last three games were decided by single-point margins.
There was also a five-point loss to Collingwood when they were in a funk earlier in the season, so had they been just a little more polished the Hawks could have even been beginning this fixture above Brisbane on the table.
Crucial to the Lions’ prospects will be small forward Charlie Cameron, who has kicked 2+ goals in six of his last seven appearances against the Hawks and averaged 2.5 goals per game at Marvel Stadium last season.
Best Bet: Hawthorn +16.5 points - 1.9 @ Unibet
Player Prop: Charlie Cameron 2+ goals - 1.66 @ BlueBet
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