AFL Betting Tips Round 20: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
AFL Round 20 Predictions:
- Sydney -6.5 points - 1.90 With Bet365
- Hawthorn-St Kilda Under 157.5 Points - 1.90 With PlayUp
- Richmond-Melbourne Either by Under 15.5 Points - 2.8 With Bluebet
- North Melbourne -5.5 Points - 1.90 With Ladbrokes
Collingwood extended their lead at the top of the ladder to two clear wins with a thrilling victory against Port Adelaide last week and further solidified their favouritism amongst AFL betting sites for this year’s Premiership.
Depending on where you look, their outright win price is now about half that of the three clubs behind them, with bookmakers still considering it a four-horse race in 2023.
Followers of this blog last week certainly would have enjoyed the manner in which the Giants ran over the top of the Suns in Canberra, which was the third of four successful best bets from last weekend.
With five rounds to play, there remains just one win separating fifth from 11th in what could be the final season with a top eight as rumours of the ‘wildcard round’ continue to swirl around the media.
So, whilst the clash between the Bulldogs and Giants in Ballarat on Saturday afternoon could be the highest stakes affair of the nine in Round 20, there are four games to follow that have piqued our interest as far as some hopefully profitable betting predictions are concerned.
Essendon Bombers v Sydney Swans, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)
After four losses from their last five matches since their bye, in which they began the game as the underdog on all five occasions, Essendon Bombers (W9 L9) are soon going to have to start producing more upset victories to keep in touch with the top eight.
Sadly for Bombers fans, we don’t think it’s starting here. Whilst Essendon have enjoyed a strong record at Marvel Stadium this year (W4 L1), all that progress has been thrown out the door in the last month where they have averaged just 69 points for and 96 against.
Perhaps the most alarming aspect of those four recent losses is that they were held to no more than three goals in every single quarter, suggesting their issues with scoring are running deep.
Meanwhile, the Sydney Swans (W8 D1 L9) are aiming to be the first interstate team to defeat Essendon at Marvel Stadium since Port Adelaide last year, and have won their last three matches under the roof.
Three wins and a draw from their last five games points to the better form they bring to this contest, particularly having just recently defeated the Bulldogs who thrashed Essendon one week later.
Two men who may have a big say are Essendon tall forward Kyle Langford, who is averaging three goals per game at Marvel Stadium (15 from five), and Sydney’s Lance Franklin who averages four goals per outing against the Bombers.
Best Bet: Sydney -6.5 points - 1.9 With Bet365
Player Prop: Kyle Langford to kick 3+ goals - 3.1 With Unibet
Hawthorn Hawks v St Kilda Saints, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
The season of the Hawthorn Hawks (W5 L13) is all but officially over following their 12th loss from 15 starts as outsiders this season, though for the fifth time in six games they were competitive up to half-time.
Here we have the third-lowest scoring side in the league taking on the seventh-lowest - Richmond Tigers (W9 D1 L8) - almost exactly two months after the Hawks took out a tight affair 88-78.
The two sides have since gone in opposite directions, and whilst St Kilda’s struggles against North Melbourne last week make backing them a difficult prospect, their inaccurate kicking under the roof on that occasion adds to our confidence that this will be another low scorer.
AFL bookmakers have set the total for this clash at 157.5, which only two of St Kilda’s last seven games (W 85-77 v West Coast and L 70-90 v Richmond) have cleared.
At the time of writing, Ladbrokes had a comparatively generous price for St Kilda forward Mitch Owens to register what would be his fourth multiple goal haul in his last five games. He has kicked 2+ in 53% of appearances this year.
Best Bet: Under 157.5 Total Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Mitch Owens to kick 2+ goals - 1.96 With Ladbrokes
Richmond Tigers v Melbourne Demons, Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)
Their percentage of below 100 is not going to do them many favours come the end of the home and away season, but nonetheless Richmond Tigers (W9 D1 L8) are making a very impressive late season charge for September action with six wins from their last seven games.
That comes despite a mid-season change of coach, and whilst two of those six wins came against clubs above them on the ladder going into this round (St Kilda and GWS), this promises to be a much sterner test.
In fact, Richmond have lost all four encounters with the top four sides of the competition, including an 18-point defeat to Melbourne the night before ANZAC Day. That took their record to W1 D1 L4 for the year, so more recent performances suggest they should improve on that effort.
Each side have seen 50% of their matches this season with a final margin of less than 16 points - and their previous meeting came awfully close to adding to that - so getting 2.8 for an outcome that occurs one in two times is appealing particularly when Richmond are now in a position to really challenge their in-form rivals.
For those readers who like to be a bit more conservative, most betting sites also offer the option of backing either side to win by less than 25 points.
First goalscorer players may be interested to know that Alex Neal-Bullen is amongst one handful of players to have kicked the first goal four times this year. Those include two in the last three rounds, and the reverse fixture between these sides in April.
Best Bet: Either by Under 15.5 Points - 2.8 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Alex Neal-Bullen First Goalscorer - 21.0 With Unibet
West Coast Eagles v North Melbourne, Sunday, 4:40pm (AEST)
The AFL have saved the best for last this weekend! All jokes aside, the loser of this meeting between cellar dwellers West Coast Eagles (W1 L17) and North Melbourne (W2 L16) won’t be laughing, for neither side will get a better chance to taste victory for the remainder of the year.
We’ve missed the best price on this play after West Coast opened narrow favourites with some Australian bookies, only for the punters to put them in their place and back North into narrow favouritism.
The Kangaroos may be the second-worst offence and defence of the competition, but are still nine and 18 points per game ahead of West Coast on both counts and have been respectable in patches over the last couple of months, closing out well against the likes of Collingwood, Geelong and Essendon.
North were 10-point victors in Perth at a similar point last year, and this time around the Eagles are without Luke Shuey or Sam Petrevski-Seton, whilst their visitors welcome back co-captain Jy Simpkin who racked up 25 disposals and five tackles in their narrow Round 1 win over the Eagles.
West Coast have already sustained enormous losses to other rock-bottom clubs such as Gold Coast (70 points), Hawthorn (116 points) and Fremantle (55 and 24 points), and whilst North are in their own world of pain this year, we’re confident they can go one better than the five-point win last time these sides met.
Speaking of disposals, you can get a juicy price for West Coast’s Liam Duggan to top 25+ this week, as he has done in seven of his last 10 games.
Best Bet: North Melbourne -5.5 Points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Liam Duggan 25+ disposals - 2.2 With Unibet
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