AFL Betting Tips Round 22: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch

The Brisbane Lions (W14 L6) were successful but hardly inspiring in Perth last weekend when failing to cover the line for a fifth consecutive week. 

A top-two place will likely depend on upcoming clashes with fellow finalists Collingwood and St Kilda, but first they’ve got to deal with a budding finals contender that has won two matches on the trot.

Whilst this time they have the advantage of The Gabba, where they maintain a perfect nine wins from nine matches, are the Lions a better side now than they were when losing by 17 points away to the Adelaide Crows (W10 L10) earlier this year? 

Their effort against the Suns two weeks back suggests not. Meanwhile, Adelaide defeated the Gold Coast by 28 points just last week, and that followed a Showdown trouncing of their South Australian rivals that has them rising at an opportune time.

Whilst there’s not much juice in our suggested player prop, it certainly appears to be a safe multi filler. Joe Daniher has 14 multiple-goal hauls to his name in 2023, but more importantly, eight of them have been in Brisbane’s nine home outings.

Best Bet: Adelaide +21.5 points - 1.9 With Bet365

Player Prop: Joe Daniher to kick 2+ goals - 1.55 With Unibet

Two of the AFL’s best defensive units of 2023 clash heads with this Carlton’s (W11 D1 L8) last chance to sneak into the top four and Melbourne’s (W14 L6) final opportunity to grab a home qualifying final.

With that in mind, betting sites have set a fairly modest total points score in the mid-160s, which is well above some of the totals that have been produced in Melbourne’s eight consecutive wins over Carlton.

Their previous matchup this year saw the Dees win 61-44, whilst only three of the last 10 H2Hs prior to that cleared 165 total points.

Carlton have not conceded more than 76 points in any of their seven straight victories, though their ability to get the ball forward will be restrained by the return of Clayton Oliver.

Despite kicking at least two goals in each of his last four games for a total of eight times this year, the price that bookies are offering for Jesse Motlop to do it again is simply too good to refuse.

Best Bet: Under 166.5 total points - 1.9 With PlayUp

Player Prop:  Jesse Motlop to kick 2+ goals - 2.85 With Ladbrokes

West Coast Eagles v Fremantle, Saturday, 8:10pm (AEST)

The Fremantle Dockers (W8 L12) must win their last three games to maintain an already very remote chance of getting into the top eight and can probably count on a fifth consecutive win against derby rivals West Coast Eagles (W2 L18) to move one step closer.

But since losing the April derby by 41 points, the Eagles have made significant inroads throughout the second half of the season as their remarkably long injury list continues to shrink.

This week veteran Shannon Hurn - who last played in their narrow home win over North Melbourne - returns to bolster their defence, whilst captain Luke Shuey was tracking (but not confirmed) to be in the side at time of writing. 

Fremantle firmed significantly as favourites throughout the week but have scored fewer than 80 points for six consecutive weeks (W1 L5), which brings into question their ability to clear a 40+ point margin for a third time this season.

In their last six matches, West Coast have suffered only two significant blowouts, taking St Kilda and Essendon the full distance in addition to that breakthrough win against North Melbourne.

After 35 touches against Brisbane last week, Fremantle’s Caleb Serong has cleared the 31.5 disposal line that firms have set for him this week in five of his last seven games. Add to that a haul of 35 in the previous derby and we’re confident he can do it again.

Best Bet: Fremantle by 1-39 points - 2.25 With Bluebet

Player Prop: Caleb Serong over 31.5 disposals - 1.87 With Unibet