AFL Betting Tips Round 24: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
AFL Round 24 Predictions:
- Hawthorn-Freemantle Over 169.5 points - 1.9 with Bluebet
- Adelaide -29.5 points - 1.9 with Unibet
- Port Adelaide -37.5 points - 1.9 with Ladbrokes
- Sydney-Melbourne Either Under 15.5 points - 2.65 with PlayUp
Can you smell finals footy? The much maligned postseason bye round is just days away, but before then there are some spots in the eight to be sorted out.
The Bulldogs need to defeat Geelong and hope for a favour from Carlton, but after falling to perhaps the worst team of the 21st century last week, they certainly can’t afford any complaints if their season comes to an end this weekend.
Further up the ladder, the four clubs to play the qualifying finals in week one have been determined, but two are still in the race for the minor Premiership, whilst Melbourne could even leapfrog Brisbane and Port Adelaide into the top two if things go their way.
Of course, there’s still money to be made from the dead rubbers, and we have cast our eye over our favourite betting sites to come up with the four best bets and player props for the final time of the 2023 home and away season.
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle Dockers, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
If the Hawthorn Hawks (W7 L15) and Fremantle Dockers (W9 L13) forwards can get their goal kicking boots on, as they have done more often than not in recent weeks, we think the teams could put on a free-flowing exhibition to end the season in style.
The Hawks are looking to end the season on a high, if they haven’t already done so with wins over Collingwood and Western Bulldogs in the last month. Add that to mid-season triumphs against Brisbane and St Kilda and, whilst it hasn’t been a particularly happy year, their best is certainly worth getting excited about.
Fremantle enjoys a five-game winning streak against the Hawks, but four of those matches were in Perth and the other in Tasmania.
It’ll be their first meeting at the MCG since Round 3, 2014; just months after their Grand Final showdown, and in more recent times the Dockers have had mixed results at the venue with two wins over Melbourne and two losses to Collingwood in the last two years.
Granted, games involving Fremantle are producing just 162.9 points and those with Hawthorn 165.4 points, but the final round of the home and away season can often be where trends go to die.
These sides have been quite accurate in recent rounds (Hawthorn 16.9 v Collingwood and 14.9 v St Kilda; or Fremantle 20.14 v West Coast and 12.4 v Sydney) and will want to entertain their fans with some attacking, nothing to lose football.
On that basis, the total points mark set by exchange betting sites could be a little low, and after he missed the mark last week, Lachie Schultz could certainly help our cause if he can record his fifth multiple goal haul in six appearances.
Best Bet: Over 169.5 total points - 1.9 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Lachie Schultz to kick 2+ goals - 2.25 With Bet365
West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows, Saturday, 8:10pm (AEST)
It was inevitable that the West Coast Eagles (W3 L19) were to receive accusations of ‘tanking’ after seemingly throwing away a win against Essendon and shipping a 100-point margin in the latest derby, and head coach Adam Simpson angrily dismissed such discourse after a breakthrough win against the Bulldogs last weekend.
As he continues to get some senior players back from injury, as well as growing support from some optimistic fans refreshed by the two recent wins, Simpson’s next challenge is to get his side to put together two consecutive solid performances, which they have done only once this year illustrated by their 41% success rate at covering the pre-game line.
Back in Perth after their third single digit loss in five weeks, the phrase “what if” is lingering around Adelaide Crows (W10 L12) HQ, particularly considering they would have won the match had a score review in the dying moments been properly taken.
Reversing all three of those results would have booked their place in the finals with a week to spare, whilst just getting the win they deserved against Sydney last week would have had them in ninth!
The Crows covered a -1.5 point in Round 21 last year when visiting the Eagles, which was their last trip to the stadium. It’ll be interesting to see if they come out to prove a point or are deflated by last weekend’s umpiring error.
We’re expecting them to win by at least 30 points, though coming close to their 122-point margin in the reverse head-to-head is probably not on the cards. We’re also looking to Jordan Dawson to record 25+ touches for a 15th time in 2023 after a few quiet weeks.
Best Bet: Adelaide -29.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
Player Prop: Jordan Dawson over 24.5 disposals - 1.87 With Bet365
Port Adelaide Power v Richmond Tigers, Sunday, 12:30pm (AEST)
A rare midday first bounce in Adelaide will have the Port Adelaide Power (W16 L6) knowing if the top two is within realistic reach following Collingwood and Brisbane playing their final games earlier in the round.
It appears unlikely that they can make up the percentage difference on the Lions in the final week, but nonetheless they’ll be giving it all they can to ensure they go into the postseason with three consecutive wins and a week off to reset and recover.
The Power have a strong 9-2 record at the Adelaide Oval against interstate opposition this season in addition to a 77% win rate as favourites across the country, which should serve them well three months after a 10-point H2H win at the MCG.
Richmond’s last eight weeks have consisted of them winning all four games against clubs not in finals contention and losing four to top-eight clubs, a lengthy trend which suggests they’ll fall short here.
Perhaps most alarmingly, all four defeats were by a 30+ point margin, and this time they’re going around without Dion Prestia or retired pair Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin. 2023 could close out in forgettable fashion for the black and yellow faithful.
Last week, Sam Powell-Pepper recorded Port Adelaide’s opening goal for an incredible seventh time - more than any other single player in the league. Whilst it may break a golden rule to back a player in a ‘first goalscorer’ market in consecutive weeks, he’s already done so on two previous occasions!
Best Bet: Port Adelaide -37.5 points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Sam Powell-Pepper First Port Adelaide Goal - 10.0 With Bet365
Sydney Swans v Melbourne Demons, Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)
After they won the final three games of Lance Franklin’s illustrious career, the Sydney Swans (W12 D1 L9) have carried on from strength to strength to string together six straight wins, including victories against similarly placed sides GWS and Essendon, to book their place in September's action.
They’re on a similar run of five wins from their last six games as favourites, but AFL betting sites can barely split them and fellow finalists Melbourne Demons (W15 L7), who smashed them by 50 points in Round three early this year.
There’s a home elimination final on the line here for a side in much better form, but it certainly won’t come without its challenges after Melbourne last week reminded the competition why they have what it takes with their authoritative second half against the Hawks.
We got a great price for either team to win by under 15.5 points in Sydney’s victory over Adelaide last week and will be hoping the bookmakers are spot on with their line once again
For a man who is on a run of five consecutive 2+ goal hauls, Isaac Heeney presents an attractive price on Ladbrokes to keep the streak going, particularly if the Swans win as we are predicting - he kicked more than one goal in eight of their 12 victories this season.
Best Bet: Either Team by Under 15.5 points - 2.65 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Isaac Heeney to kick 2+ goals - 1.72 With Ladbrokes
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