AFL Finals Week 2 Betting Tips: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
AFL Finals Week 2 Predictions:
- Melbourne-Carlton Under 156.5 points - 1.9 with Bluebet
- Christian Petracca 30+ disposals - 2.6 with Unibet
- Port Adelaide-GWS Over 176.5 points - 1.9 with Ladbrokes
- Jake Riccardi to kick 3+ goals - 3.9 with PlayUp
It was quite a profitable beginning to the 2023 AFL Finals Series last week with three of our four best bets getting up and returning a 42% profit for loyal followers of the blog.
Both this and next week we get to focus all of our research and analysis on just two games as the competition quickly whittles down to September 30’s big showdown at the MCG.
Betting sites have graded these two contests as very tight with single digit lines offering potential value for favourite backers in both matches.
But it’s the totals that greatly interest us this week, with some strong trends emerging over the last couple of months that point towards two solid and confident predictions.
Melbourne Demons v Carlton Blues, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
Games involving the Melbourne Demons (4th) and Carlton Blues (5th) in 2023 rank 15th and 17th respectively for average total points per game (160.5 and 156.7) which in itself makes the modest total points line set by exchange betting sites understandable.
But one quick look at the two meetings between these sides this year suggests it could be generously high!
The two sides shared one narrow win each in the home and away season, with the two meetings producing just 105 and 116 total points.
In recent weeks, backing the ‘unders’ has been quite a smart option when it comes to both of these clubs, and with Melbourne’s last four matches and three of Carlton’s last five falling well short of 155 points, several patterns point towards this being another low-scoring arm wrestle.
If you’re a keen player of disposal markets, some fascinating analysis was produced during the week of major ballgetters during September action that identified some potential value.
Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca are both renowned as ball magnets during finals, averaging 28.1 and 26.6 disposals respectively across their nine finals appearances each.
The difference between them in all matches this year is identical - 30.5 per game for Oliver and 29 for Petracca - yet the disparity with some betting apps is not at all reflective of this.
You can get as high as 2.60 for Petracca to rack up 30+ touches and as little as 1.58 for Oliver. The value clearly lies with Petracca here.
Best Bet: Melbourne by 1-39 points - 2.55 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Jamie Elliott to kick 2+ goals - 1.87 With Bet365
Port Adelaide Power v GWS Giants, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)
If high scoring games are more your cup of tea, the first ever finals fixture between the Port Adelaide Power (3rd) and GWS Giants (7th) could be right up your street.
Port got a tremendously rude shock when becoming the 12th consecutive side of 2023 to lose to the Lions at The Gabba, with a shell-shocked coach Ken Hinkley admitting his team were “overpowered” and outkicked by a side that won by eight goals with only eight more scoring shots.
But it was his mounting casualty list that Hinkley was more concerned about, for Trent McKenzie and Dylan Williams were in doubt for this clash during the week, whilst captain Tom Jonas is out and Charlie Dixon is racing to return in time.
The Giants took their record as outsiders to a pretty impressive W6 L7 this season when accounting for St Kilda and travelling once again should be no issue, with GWS becoming the first club to win at 11 different venues in a single season including against the Crows at Adelaide Oval.
These two sides are second and seventh in terms of average total points per game and their clash in August (136-85 to Port) was one of 15 Port Adelaide games this season to clear the 176.5 point mark set by most AFL betting sites during the week.
One man we anticipate will pile on the points is Giant Jake Riccardi. He has demonstrated in recent weeks he doesn’t need much of the footy to be effective, converting seven and six kicks into three goals each in his last two matches.
A repeat of his four-goal haul against the Power in Round 22 would be the eighth time in his last 15 games he clears 3+.
Odds of nearly four bucks for something he has been doing 50% of the time in recent weeks is too good to pass up. Good luck!
Best Bet: Over 176.5 total points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Jake Riccardi to kick 3+ goals - 3.9 With Ladbrokes
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