Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2025?

Manchester City midfielder Rodri added the 2024 Ballon d'Or to his impressive list of honours won in his illustrious career.
The Spaniard had a terrific season for club and country, helping City win the Premier League for a record-breaking fourth time and playing his part in Spain's Euro 2024 triumph.
Sadly, a knee injury ended Rodri's season in September, so his chances of winning the Ballon d'Or in back-to-back years are over.
So, who will be named Ballon d'Or winner in 2025, based on performances from the start of August 2024 to the end of July 2025?
The best betting sites will continue to update their odds throughout the coming months.
We take a closer look at those hoping to add the most prestigious individual award in world football to their list of achievements.
Salah Still Leads The Way
Mo Salah’s form with Liverpool means he is the 11/4 favourite with William Hill to win this year’s Ballon d’Or.
Despite being out of contract at the end of the season and no sign of agreeing a new deal soon, the Egyptian maestro is the top scorer in the Premier League with 21 goals, two more than nearest rival Erling Haaland.
Salah also tops the assists chart this season with 13, the highest across the top five European leagues.
The 32-year-old forward scored both goals in a 2-0 win at European hopefuls Bournemouth over the weekend to hit another milestone in his remarkable career.
300 - Mo Salah has scored the 300th goal of his European club career in all competitions, 235 of which have come for Liverpool. Spartan. pic.twitter.com/NFlxpHfcpv
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) February 1, 2025
His efforts overall have propelled Liverpool to the top of the table and a 20th title looks well within reach.
The Reds remain odds-on to win the Premier League and are favourites to win the Champions League/European Cup for a seventh time after finishing top of the reformatted league.
Should Arne Slot's men win the league and European titles in the same season, Salah would have a strong case for finally getting his hands on the Ballon d’Or.
Salah twice finished fifth in the rankings in 2019 and 2022, but this could finally be the year he is crowned the world’s best player.
Mbappe Closing In On Salah
Kylian Mbappe's move from Paris Saint-Germain to Real Madrid was one of the biggest transfers of last summer.
After seasons of failing to win the Champions League, Mbappe will feel he can finally get his hands on the biggest prize in European club football.
Despite a rocky start which saw him miss penalties in the defeats by Liverpool and Athletic Bilbao, Mbappe has scored eight goals in his last seven appearances in all competitions, including his first hat-trick for the club in a 3-0 victory at Valladolid.
Ballon d'Or 2025 Odds:
Player | Club | Odds | Bookmaker |
Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 11/4 | |
Kylian Mbappe | Real Madrid | 5/1 | |
Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | 5/1 | |
Vinicius Jr | Real Madrid | 6/1 | |
Raphinha | Barcelona | 8/1 | |
Jude Bellingham | Real Madrid | 14/1 | |
Robert Lewandowski | Barcelona | 16/1 | |
Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 18/1 | |
Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | 20/1 | |
Virgil van Dijk | Liverpool | 25/1 | |
Cole Palmer | Liverpool | 25/1 |
The France skipper has netted 15 goals for the Spanish champions and Liga leaders, but only three in the Champions League.
Real Madrid have also been paired with Manchester City for the fourth successive year after both clubs failed to finish in the top eight which would have given them an automatic place in the last 16.
Should the European champions be eliminated from the play-off round, Mbappe's hopes of landing the Ballon d'Or will be severely hampered.
Despite the draw, Mbappe's Ballon d'Or odds have been cut from 7/1 to 5/1.
Vinicius Jr Slips Off The Pace
Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr felt much aggrieved that he did not win the award last year.
Vinicius Jr led the betting market for most of 2024, but when it became apparent that Rodri would be handed the prestigious award, it led to a boycott of the ceremony by Real Madrid officials.
He started the new season as the frontrunner, but the Brazilian forward is now the 6/1 fourth favourite in the Ballon d’Or odds with betting apps.
Although he has eight goals in La Liga this season, that is still 10 behind Barca forward Robert Lewandowski.
Vinicius Jr scored twice in a 5-1 victory over Salzburg which secured Real Madrid's place in the knockout stage of the Champions League.
Admittedly, Vinicius Jr has found the net seven times in the Champions League, but he can probably wave goodbye to the Ballon d’Or if Los Blancos are knocked out by City during the knockout phase play-offs.
Vinicius Jr returned from suspension for Saturday's 1-0 defeat at Espanyol which left Carlo Ancelotti's side just one point clear at the top of the table.
Maintaining his discipline and scoring more goals in La Liga will be important to his chances of Ballon d'Or success.
Raphinha Odds Cut Again
Since joining Barcelona from Leeds, Raphinha has emerged as one of his side's most influential players.
The Brazilian's eight goals helped Barca finish second in the league phase of the Champions League, including a hat-trick on his 100th appearance for the club in a 4-0 win over Bayern Munich.
The winger is the third highest scorer in La Liga this season with 12 goals, with his latest coming in a 7-1 win at home to Valencia.
Raphinha had been 12/1 to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or, but his odds have been cut to 8/1 after Barca moved to within four points of leaders Real Madrid at the weekend with a 1-0 victory over Alaves.
Bellingham Back In Form
Historically, the Ballon d'Or goes to a player from a successful team and over the years, Real Madrid have been perennial winners, especially with Ancelotti in charge.
Jude Bellingham is in his second season as a Madrid player and although he struggled in the early stages of the campaign he now looks back to his best.
The England midfielder has scored seven goals and supplied six assists in La Liga. His goal in a 3-0 league win at Brest in the Champions League ended a five-game run without a goal.
Bellingham was third in the 2024 voting, but for someone who writes his own scripts, he will want his name to be on that trophy sooner rather than later.
His odds have been shortened to 14/1, but should he continue to bang in the goals and lead Los Blancos to another Liga and European double, his name could be on the trophy.
Lewandowski Still A Candidate
At 36, Robert Lewandowski's career should be moving in a downward direction, but the Poland international continues to score on a regular basis.
The prolific marksman already has 18 goals in La Liga - three more than nearest rival Mbappe - and he was the joint-top scorer during the league phase of the Champions League with nine.
The Poland striker scored the winner against Alaves at the weekend to make it 30 goals for the season in all competitions.
If Lewandowski can continue to find the back of the net and help Barca to success domestically and in Europe, then his Ballon d'Or odds of 16/1 on football betting sites will shorten.
Haaland Chances Depend On European Success
Erling Haaland has broken all kinds of records since joining City and is averaging just under a goal a game in the Premier League, but his club are struggling domestically.
City's slim hopes of a fifth successive Premier League title virtually disappeared with a chastening 5-1 defeat at Arsenal on Sunday.
Although they remain in fourth place, Pep Guardiola's side are 15 points adrift of leaders Liverpool.
City also failed to qualify automatically for the last 16 of the Champions League and face champions Real Madrid in the play-off round, so their hopes of European success are also hanging in the balance.
The Norwegian has cruised to the previous two Golden Boot awards in the Premier League, but he has stiff competition from Salah, who is two goals ahead of Haaland.
Haaland made it seven goals in his last eight appearances in all competitions with the equaliser at the Emirates, but he lacks appeal at 18/1 to win the Ballon d'Or.
Kane Able To Pull Off Surprise
Elsewhere, Harry Kane is 20/1 in the Ballon d'Or odds.
Kane is the Bundesliga's top scorer with 19 goals, four more than nearest rival Omar Marmoush, who is now with Manchester City.
The former Tottenham striker has also scored six goals in the Champions League, but Bayern Munich need to overcome Celtic in the play-off round to reach the last 16.
They are 8/1 to win the competition for a seventh time and should the Germans succeed, Kane must be in with a shout for the Ballon d'Or.
Lewandowski Still A Candidate
At 36, Robert Lewandowski's career should be moving in a downward direction, but the Poland international continues to score on a regular basis.
The prolific marksman already has 18 goals in La Liga - three more than nearest rival Mbappe - and he was the joint-top scorer during the league phase of the Champions League with nine.
The Poland striker scored the winner against Alaves at the weekend to make it 30 goals for the season in all competitions.
If Lewandowski can continue to find the back of the net and help Barca to success domestically and in Europe, then his Ballon d'Or odds of 20/1 on football betting sites will shorten.
Van Dijk And Palmer Outsiders
Liverpool centre-back Virgil van Dijk and Chelsea forward Cole Palmer are both 25/1 to win the most prestigious individual award in world football.
Fabio Cannavaro was the last defender to win the Ballon d'Or in 2006, the year Italy lifted the World Cup for a fourth time.
With no major international tournament taking place this year, Netherlands skipper Van Dijk needs to win the Premier League and Champions League to stand a chance.
The Reds are favourites to win both competitions, so you never know, but Salah looks a better option.
Palmer has scored 14 goals and supplied six assists in the Premier League, but the Blues can only win the Europa Conference League and the FA Cup this season, tournaments which are unlikely to sway the judges.
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