Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2025?
Manchester City midfielder Rodri added the 2024 Ballon d'Or to his impressive list of honours won in his illustrious career.
The Spaniard had a terrific season for club and country, helping City win the Premier League for a record-breaking fourth time, while playing his part for Spain as they won Euro 2024.
Sadly, a knee injury has ended Rodri's season, so his chances of winning it in back-to-back years look unlikely and his absence was felt when City lost 2-1 at Bournemouth.
So, who will be named Ballon d'Or winner in 2025, based on performances from the start of August 2024 to the end of July 2025?
The best betting sites will continue to update their odds throughout the coming months.
We take a closer look at those hoping to add the most prestigious individual award in world football to their list of achievements.
Haaland To Capitalise On Quiet International Season
Erling Haaland's chances of winning the Ballon d'Or are going to be hindered by the fact that he plays for Norway, who are unlikely to win a major tournament any time soon.
If he is to win the Ballon d'Or, then it's likely to happen in a season where there is no World Cup or European Championship, which often influences the winner.
There is the inaugural Club World Cup tournament in the summer, which is organised by FIFA and will carry some clout in the voting process.
Therefore, next year's winner will come from a person who has done well for their club, which gives Haaland a great opportunity to add his name to the prestigious award.
Haaland (1.9) has broken all kinds of records since joining City and averaging a goal a game this season, he is the early leader to win the Ballon d'Or on football betting sites.
Ballon d'Or 2025 Odds:
Player | Club | Odds | Probability |
Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 1.9 | 52.4% |
Vinicius Jr | Real Madrid | 2.25 | 44.4% |
Jude Bellingham | Real Madrid | 3.0 | 33.3% |
Kylian Mbappe | Real Madrid | 4.5 | 22.2% |
Raphinha | Barcelona | 5.0 | 20% |
Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | 7.0 | 14.3% |
Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | 7.0 | 14.3% |
Robert Lewandowski | Bayern Munich | 8.0 | 12.5% |
Phil Foden | Manchester City | 9.0 | 11.1% |
Ruben Dias | Manchester City | 9.0 | 11.1% |
Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | 10.0 | 10% |
Florian Wirst | Bayer Leverkusen | 11.0 | 9.1% |
Emiliano Martinez | Aston Villa | 13.0 | 7.7% |
Virgil Van Dijk | Liverpool | 15.0 | 6.7% |
Snub Should Fire Vinicius Jr To Glory
In the hours leading up to the announcement of Rodri's success, news was breaking that Vinicius Jr was not going to win the award, which led to a boycott from Real Madrid officials.
The Brazil forward finished second to Rodri, despite being the favourite on betting apps for several months leading up to the announcement in Paris.
Vinicius Jr scored his side's second goal to secure a 2-0 win over Dortmund in the final of the Champions League at Wembley in June.
However, he was unable to lead his country to glory in the Copa America, with Brazil bowing out in the quarter-finals. Vinicius Jr is 2.25 second favourite for next year's Ballon d'Or.
Hey Jude, Fancy Winning The Ballon d'Or?
Historically, the Ballon d'Or goes to a player from a successful team, and over the years Real Madrid have been perennial winners, especially with Carlo Ancelotti in charge.
Jude Bellingham is in his second season as a Madrid player and if he can replicate what he did last season, then the England midfielder will be in the mix next year.
Bellingham (3.0) was third in the 2024 voting but for someone who writes his own scripts, he will want his name to be on that trophy sooner rather than later.
Mbappe Moved To Madrid To Win Honours
Kylian Mbappe's move from Paris Saint-Germain to Real Madrid was one of the biggest transfers of the summer.
After seasons of failing to win the Champions League, Mbappe (4.5) will feel he can finally get his hands on the biggest prize in European club football.
The France international has got off to a solid start with the Spanish champions but he'll need to play a major role in Europe if he is to land the Ballon d'Or next year.
Raphinha In The Mix After Solid Start
Raphinha (5.0) marked his 100th game for Barcelona in style by scoring a hat-trick in a 4-0 win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League.
The forward is now a key figure for Barca since joining from Leeds United in the summer of 2022 for £55m.
If the Brazilian is to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or, then Barcelona will need to have a superb season, winning La Liga and the Champions League.
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Too Soon For Lamine Yamal?
It won't be long before Lamine Yamal's name is added to the list of Ballon d'Or winners.
It's important to remember Yamal won't turn 18 until July 2025, but he has already achieved so much in his short career.
The wide man helped Spain win their fourth European Championship in Germany and if he can stay fit and healthy, more glory will follow him in his career.
Yamal is 7.0 to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or.
Saka Moving Towards Ballon d'Or Honours
Arsenal's Bukayo Saka has been playing brilliantly for a number of seasons and his form has led him to be in the conversation for the Ballon d'Or.
However, it will depend on how Arsenal perform in the Premier League and in Europe too. Saka's form has helped the Gunners emerge as Manchester City's main rivals in the last two league campaigns.
If Saka (7.0) is to be the recipient of next year's Ballon d'Or, then the Emirates side are going to have to go far in the Champions League.
Lewandowski Still A Candidate
At 36, Robert Lewandowski's career should be moving in a downward direction, but the Poland international continues to score on a regular basis.
One reason why Barcelona have enjoyed a great start to the season is Lewandowski and his goals, including two in the first El Clasico of the season at the Bernabeu, which Barcelona won 4-0.
If the prolific marksman can continue to find the back of the net, then his odds of 8.0 on football betting sites to win the accolade will shorten.
Others with aspirations to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or include Manchester City pair Phil Foden (9.0) and Ruben Dias (9.0), Bayern Munich's Harry Kane (10.0), Bayer Leverkusen's Florian Wirst (11.0) and Liverpool skipper Virgil van Dijk (15.0).
Aston Villa's Emiliano Martinez, who was named the best goalkeeper for the second successive season, is 13.0 to win the main award.
* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.
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