Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2024?

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Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2024?
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Betting sites now have Vinicius Jr as the favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or.

The Brazilian has been instrumental in his side's run to the Champions League final, bagging five goals and four assists.

After overtaking Real Madrid teammate Jude Bellingham in the eyes of the bookmakers, the pair could be decided by their country's success or otherwise at the upcoming Euros and Copa America.

Bookmakers have the winger in pole position to go on and win the main gong that Lionel Messi claimed for an eighth time in his career in 2023.

But there is fierce competition for the 2024 Ballon d’Or with both Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo now expected to drop out of the top three after a period of dominance that has lasted almost two decades.

A number of bookmakers have now updated their 2024 Ballon d’Or betting markets and there is still a plethora of players in contention.

Ballon d'Or 2024 Odds

PlayerOddsBookmaker
Vinicius Jr2.2Bet365
Jude Bellingham4.0Bet365
Kylian Mbappe9.0Bet365
Harry Kane9.0Bet365
Phil Foden13.0Bet365
Rodri21.0Bet365
Lionel Messi26.0Bet365
Erling Haaland29.0Bet365
Kevin De Bruyne34.0Bet365

Vinicius Jr Overtakes Bellingham As The Favourite

Vinicius Jr is now the 2.2 favourite according to betting apps after Real Madrid made it through to yet another Champions League final.

The 23-year-old may also be the star of the 2024 Copa America and it could well end up a head-to-head battle between him and teammate Bellingham for the accolade.

Vinicius was very much in Bellingham’s shadow during their impressive domestic campaign and was a 25/1 shot back in April, but he is at the epicentre of their success on a European front.

As for Bellingham, he came second in the race for the 2021 Kopa Trophy when at Borussia Dortmund but was overlooked for the gong in 2022. 

In 2023, however, Bellingham secured his £88.5m transfer to Real Madrid and the versatile midfielder has not looked back.

At the time of writing, Bellingham has 23 goals in 40 appearances for Los Blancos this term as Carlo Ancelotti's side claimed a 36th league title.

His 4.0 odds carry a 25% implied probability that would have put him ahead of everyone bar Messi in last season’s market.

Being at Real certainly helps his chances. But, he’s also tipped to be the key man for England at Euro 2024 in the summer.

To win the Ballon d’Or you need to win trophies. That’s what always set Messi and Ronaldo apart from the rest. 

If Bellingham can deliver a Champions League title for Real and steer England to a first men’s trophy since 1966 then this gong will surely be his.

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Mbappe Ballon d’Or Odds Begin To Drift

Kylian Mbappe is beginning to slide down the ladder in the race for the Ballon d’Or in 2024 and it’s not hard to see why. 

The Champions League was the ultimate ambition for PSG, but a 2-0 aggregate defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the semi-finals ended their chances of European glory this year.

Mbappe has already won the World Cup with France, but that triumph earned him the 2018 Kopa Trophy. 

Had France beaten Argentina in the 2022 final then he would surely have won the Ballon d’Or ahead of Messi.

At 25 years of age and with the previous generation of big guns now out of the way, the path looked smooth for Mbappe to finally win this gong. But then Bellingham and Vinicius Jr came along.

Mbappe cannot outshine the Madrid men for prowess on the domestic front as winning La Liga is considered a bigger achievement than winning Ligue 1.

But football betting sites have Mbappe smartly priced at 9.0 and realistically this could be a toss-up between the three and how their countries fare in the summer.

Kane Has A Slim Chance At Ballon d’Or

It was commendable that Harry Kane stayed at Tottenham as long as he did but the voting process for the Ballon d’Or used to heavily favour trophies, and still does to a big extent.

Now at Bayern Munich, Kane missed out on a Bundesliga title in his debut season and was minutes away from making a Champions League final.

Despite floundering in the race for the title, Kane has dominated on the goalscoring front and should he deliver for the Three Lions at Euro 2024, then Kane’s odds of 9.0 with Bet365 will almost certainly decrease. 

He never once got into the top three of the Ballon d’Or votes while at Spurs, but with 44 goals in 45 matches sporting his new colours, 2024 is definitely proving to be another impressive year.

Haaland Odds Reflect Voting Issues

Erling Haaland is, by most people’s reckoning, the most fearsome footballer on the planet right now. He is a deadly finisher, can lead the line on his own, and is a terror for defenders.

He has never won the Ballon d’Or and hasn’t even come close to winning the Kopa Trophy.

There are a few reasons for this. The first is that he will almost certainly never achieve the international success that Messi, Ronaldo and previous winners like Fabio Cannavaro and Luis Figo enjoyed in their careers. 

Haaland isn’t winning a World Cup, European Championship or Nations League with Norway.

Erling Haaland hair

The second is he’s at Manchester City. The vote of 170 journalists (now cut to 100) usually focuses more on the continent. City aren’t looked upon favourably elsewhere in Europe purely because of their financial clout.

Haaland won the treble last season and still didn’t pick up the 2023 award because Messi won the World Cup.

After losing out to Real Madrid in the last eight of the Champions League, only the double is possible this term which is why Haaland’s odds have drifted way out to 29.0

Vinicius Jr Is Now Well In Contention

Vinicius Jr is the biggest market mover in recent weeks, with the Brazilian now available at 6.0 on betting apps after Real Madrid made it through to another Champions League final.

The 23-year-old may also be the star of the 2024 Copa America and it could well end up a head-to-head battle between him and teammate Bellingham for the accolade.

Vinicius was very much in Bellingham’s shadow during their impressive domestic campaign and was a 26.0 shot in April, but he is at the epicentre of their success on a European front.

Best Of The Rest

It would be a big surprise if Messi (26.0) won this trophy once more in his career but there’s a slim chance of that happening in 2024. 

However, Argentina will compete in the Copa America in the US this summer, and if he continues his fantastic start with Miami and wins the Copa America, there will be talk of a ninth Ballon d’Or. 

In reality he might just sneak into the top three, assuming the European Championship doesn't go to France or England.

Phil Foden (13.0) is the biggest market mover in recent days. The 23-year-old sealed his sixth Premier League title win in addition to being named the Premier League player of the year and if he plays a big part for England at Euro 2024, he could be one to watch out for.

Elsewhere, Rodri (21.0) and Kevin De Bruyne (34.0) carry the same weight as Haaland when it comes to convincing journalists they are worthy of votes.

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Joe Short

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