India vs Australia World Cup Final ODI - Latest Odds & Analysis
India v Australia Predictions:
- Rohit Sharma over 35.5 runs - 1.83 @ Bet365
- Shreyas Iyer over 0.5 sixes - 2.2 @ Bet365
- Mohammed Siraj under 1.5 wickets - 1.72 @ Bet365
When: Sunday, November 19, 7:30pm AEST
Where: Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Watch: Sky Sports
Best Odds: India 1.44, Australia 3.0
After 47 matches of a tournament that will go down in history as one of surprises and shock results, one of the most predictable finals matchups imaginable will close out the tournament in front of more than 100,000 people in Ahmedabad.
Sports commentators around the English-speaking world love to quip “you couldn’t possibly script this” in response to some kind of unbelievable play or result, but it’s almost as though India’s tournament so far has in fact followed a script.
The host nation are understandably quite short priced by cricket betting sites around the world, particularly as they bowled fellow finalists Australia out for just 199 in a league stage drubbing.
India has barely been challenged throughout their 10 wins so far, whilst their best 11 has rarely put a foot wrong along the way.
The only time that the wheels threatened to even remotely come off was when Hardik Pandya went down with injury mid-tournament. But his replacement, Mohammed Shami, has broken all kinds of records to become the leading wicket-taker of the entire tournament despite playing only six of a possible 10 games!
Shami was very kind to us in the semi-final when taking 3+ wickets, as we had tipped as part of our free analytical previews of the 2023 Cricket World Cup. Let’s go out with a bang!
The Numbers That Matter
- India took 96 of a maximum 100 wickets at this World Cup
- Australia has a 4-6 ODI away record against India since 2020
- India hit the most sixes in nine of their 10 games at this tournament
- Josh Hazlewood to Virat Kohli in ODIs: 5-51 at 3.48rpo
- Steve Smith has not top scored for Australia since their opening game
Yet Another 40+ Score From The Captain? You ‘Bet’!
It appears written in the stars that Rohit Sharma is going to add “World Cup-winning captain” to his unrivalled IPL success as well as his litany of individual records across three formats that he continues to set even throughout this tournament.
Rohit has become more devastating than ever during the first 10 overs, leading from the front to see his side become the fastest scoring powerplay team (68.7 runs on average) at this World Cup.
In eight of his 10 innings at this World Cup so far, he has cleared the 35.5 run mark set by bookmakers for this final, with four scores in the 40s to go with a century and three half-centuries.
The most notable exception was a 0 against Australia in Chennai, but the long-term numbers are in his favour.
As well as an average of 58 at home to Australia in ODIs, Rohit averages 68 specifically in this format against the five main bowlers Australia have used at this tournament (Starc, Cummins, Hazlewood, Zampa, Maxwell).
The bookmakers have probably shaved a few runs off his mark because of the occasion and because Ahmedabad can sometimes be tough to bat on, especially if the BCCI opts to go with a used pitch, but Rohit has four scores of 48+ from six ODIs in Ahmedabad to boost our confidence even further.
Prediction: Rohit Sharma over 35.5 runs - 1.83 @ Bet365
Shreyas’ Streak Of Sixes
If anybody can explain to us why Shreyas Iyer has been quoted at such a ridiculous price to hit a single six in the World Cup final, get in touch and let us know!
There’s always the danger, as there is with any of his teammates, that he gets dismissed cheaply before getting the opportunity to clear the fence, as happened when he registered a duck against Australia in Chennai.
But his more recent form has been nothing short of impeccable. Shreyas’ last four innings saw him amass 21 sixes with at least two in each innings.
Whilst the Narendra Modi Stadium is not a big six-hitting venue due to its large boundaries, he collected two sixes on the way to his 53 against Pakistan in India’s third win of the tournament in Ahmedabad, proving he’s capable of doing it again at a very attractive price.
Prediction: Shreyas Iyer over 0.5 sixes - 2.2 @ Bet365
Minimal Miyan Magic At Modi
One of the downsides of Mohammed Shami’s frankly ridiculous wicket-taking, ably supported by Bumrah and the spin duo of Kuldeep Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja, is that Mohammed Siraj has been reduced to little more than a passenger!
It’s an enormous fall from grace after he was India’s leading wicket-taker in the Asia Cup just a couple of months ago, but six of his 10 wickets in that tournament came in the final against Sri Lanka.
On that basis, he cannot be discounted from putting in yet another stellar performance in a tournament final. But his returns across this World Cup have been well below what he would have been both hoping and expecting.
Siraj has taken 2+ wickets just four of 10 times at the tournament, which alone makes betting sites quote of 1.72 appear fair.
But it’s also worth noting that one of his worst figures came against Australia (1/72), whilst he averages slightly less than two wickets per innings in Ahmedabad as well as 1.17 wickets per game against Australia.
A repeat of Mohammed Shami’s bulk 4+ wicket hauls, and/or Jadeja’s three-for against Australia, will also leave him slim pickings.
Prediction: Mohammed Siraj under 1.5 wickets - 1.72 @ Bet365
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