New South Wales State Election Betting Predicts ALP Win In 2027

Betting sites were correct about the Australian Labor Party winning this year’s New South Wales state election but predicting another triumph for Chris Minns in 2027 is already proving difficult.

Voters across New South Wales narrowly backed Labor over the Lib/Nat Coalition in the legislative assembly but not by enough to hand Minns majority control.

Labor is currently being propped up by three independents. Minns has been able to push ahead with much of his legislative agenda over the course of his first 100 days but a tightened state budget could cause stress points before the year is out.

Election promises are going ahead but slowly and Minns is likely to face difficulties over his wider infrastructure proposals when they come to being passed through the state parliament.

There is no suggestion just yet that Labor’s monitory government could collapse and trigger a snap election. But bookies are wary of what could come down the line and very few are offering odds on the 2027 NSW election just yet.

However, there are some that have opened their markets on who will win the next New South Wales election, and the feeling is that voters would still back Labor over the Coalition.

New South Wales State Election Odds

Labor came in as short as 1.14 to win the last NSW state election and duly did so, with 45 Assembly seats earned compared to 36 for the Lib/Nats. 

Since then political betting sites have slightly readjusted their odds but still have Minns’ party as the 1.2 favourites to win the next election.

That price exposes a lack of willingness across the market to shake things up just yet. Minns might not be on the steadiest of grounds within the state parliament but so far there is no reason to rock the market.

The Coalition, meanwhile, are 5.0 to win the next vote. Dominic Perrottet stepped down as Liberal Party leader following March’s defeat and Mark Speakman now heads the charge for the opposition.

Speakman has a big challenge on his hands to reduce both the poll and odds deficit. The first poll to emerge since March’s election had Labor jump to 60% support in second-round voting intention, with the Coalition at 40%. Were that to be reflected in a snap election the ALP would likely secure a majority.

No wonder, then, that the bookies are holding firm on their odds even though the previous election didn’t quite go according to plan for Labor.

NSW Election Issues

Labor has set out to address a number of infrastructure and social issues across NSW, with Sydney’s housing problem of high concern. There is an effort to push investment away from Sydney’s central business district and grow the state economy in tandem with “inbound emigration”.

House building targets, spiralling prices and rapid inflation are all affecting Minns’ efforts to deliver his pre-election promises. But the premier is confident his party can deliver in time to secure re-election in 2027.

However, voters are yet to get fully accustomed to Speakman. The moderate is more likely to capture centre-ground voters than his further-right rival for the Coalition leadership Anthony Roberts.

“We weren’t a government that had run out of puff,” Speakman insisted in an interview with the Financial Review. “We still had things to do and a sense of freshness and rejuvenation.”

That sense of freshness will need to come to the fore fairly soon. Labor’s poll lead has improved and voters are likely to be willing to give the new government a chance after 12 years of Coalition rule.

The only issue right now for Labor is keeping their independents close. Lose that support and their government could collapse. It’s unlikely right now, but 2027 is a long way away.