Nobel Prize For Literature Betting: Xue Tipped to Beat Murakami and Rushdie

Betting sites are standing firm on their expectation that Can Xue will win the 2023 Nobel Prize for Literature despite a close battle among 11 top authors for the coveted gong.

The Nobel Prize for Literature is awarded on October 5 and recognises outstanding literary achievements by a writer or writers. It doesn’t necessarily align with the publication dates of a writer’s works.

Chinese short fiction writer Can is the frontrunner this year. Her book Frontier set the writer apart as a highly-rated author and, since then, a literary critic.

Bookmakers have had Can towards the top end of their markets for the Literature prize for years and perhaps 2023 will be their year.

However, her odds have widened in recent weeks as bookies bring a raft of new names into the price. 

Haruki Murakami is the second favourite, but his odds have not budged in months. 

Instead, outsiders such as Margaret Attwood, Lyudmila Ulitskaya and Salman Rushdie all now have a fighting chance of the award, so say the bookies.

The prize will crown the year’s Nobel laureate in Literature – a title currently held by French novelist and writer Annie Ernaux. 

Other notable laureates include Ernest Hemingway (1954), Samuel Beckett (1969), Toni Morrison (1993), Seamus Heaney (1995), Doris Lessing (2007), and Bob Dylan (2016).

Nobel Prize For Literature Betting 2023

Annie Ernaux was a 12.0 outsider to win the Nobel Prize for Literature last year. She beat the likes of Michel Houellebecq (8.0), Salman Rushdie (9.0) and Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o (11.0) to the prize. 

Can Xue was priced way out at 25.0 in 2022, but her odds for the 2023 Nobel laureate suggests she could well win this October. 

A surge of additional names to the list this autumn has, however, given punters something to think about.

Here are the current frontrunners for the 2023 Nobel Literature prize.

Can Xue

Bluebet price Can as the 9.0 favourite here, but her odds have floated out from 8.0. 

Her latest work, The Barefoot Doctor, is seen by many as the tipping point needed for Can to get the Nobel gong. 

A mystical and majestic writer in equal measure, Can perhaps suffers from her books being translated - sometimes blandly - into English. 

But the Nobel judges are certainly watching. Back in the spring more than 50% of all bets on this market backed Can for victory. That weight of support has eased off since, which is why her odds have floated.

Haruki Murakami

The word prolific doesn’t really do Haruki Murakami justice. The veteran Japanese author, writer and critic has been publishing award-winning works since the 1970s.

His breakthrough novel A Wild Sheep Chase caught the eye of the international world and he’s never really looked back. 

Murakami was 15.0 to win the Nobel Literature prize last year, and is rated the same this time around. He’s getting closer, and this spring published his latest novel The City and Its Uncertain Walls – six years on from Killing Commendatore. 

Will 2023 be his year? Perhaps.

Gerald Murnane

At 84, it feels this could finally be the year for Gerald Murnane. The writer of Inland and Invisible Yet Enduring Lilacs got his big break with The Plains way back in 1982. 

Murnane keeps himself to himself most of the time, but is rarely not working on his next project. 

His latest essay collection Last Letter to a Reader caught the eye of reviewers, and perhaps the judging panel is now ready to back him. The bookies have him at 15.0.

Laszlo Krasznahorkai

Hungarian novelist Laszlo Krasznahorkai has been floated as a possible Literature Prize winner before, but has never enjoyed odds as short as 15.0.

Krasznahorkai, 69, won the Man Booker International Prize in 2015. Since then his novella Chasing Homer has earned plaudits in literary circles. 

Krasznahorkai has an adept ability to test readers with his demanding subject matter. 

The post-modernist appears to have plenty of stories still in the tank and a Nobel gong could well come in a few years time, if not 2023.

Thomas Pynchon

Another contender at 17.0 on specials betting sites, Thomas Pynchon was not even in the running - it seems - in 2022. 

But the American novelist, who shot to fame with his debut novel V. in 1963, cannot be overlooked here. Pynchon loves a complex novel- a passion that has arguably held him back from Nobel until now. 

His books Gravity's Rainbow, Mason & Dixon and Against the Day are likely to be read long after he’s gone. And he is worth his place among the frontrunners for this year’s award.

Mircea Cartarescu

Romanian Mircea Cartarescu has picked up plenty of awards down the years, particularly in Germany and Austria.

But his works have never really made a splash in the English-speaking markets. That was until Blinding (2014) caught the eye. 

Cartarescu recently won the LA Times’ Prize for Fiction for his work Solenoid, described as “the kind of amazing literary text whose countless qualities emerge from any randomly chosen fragment”. 

It’s this work that puts him in front of the Nobel panel, and a justified price of 17.0 in the odds.

Lyudmila Ulitskaya

Now into her 80th year, Lyudmila Ulitskaya shows no signs of slowing down. 

The Russian, currently living in Germany, wrote a story for the New Yorker earlier this year and is a vocal advocate of freedom of expression.

The latter years of her career to date have been shaped by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

She is a vocal critic of the Kremlin. However, her novels tend to focus on personal relationships. At 17.0 with Ladbrokes, Ulitskaya is one of the recent movers in this market.

Margaret Atwood

Margaret Atwood doesn’t exactly need more awards to her name, but the Nobel Literature Prize has so far evaded the 83-year-old. 

Atwood released a short story collection this year, Old Babes in the Wood, that was her first major work since The Testaments in 2019, a novel that won her the Booker Prize.

At 17.0, betting apps reckon she has a growing chance of winning this award. 

However, the Nobel committee may not be keen on another Canadian winning the gong for her short stories, considering Alice Munro won it in 2013. 

Atwood would be the popular choice if the award went to a public vote but is unlikely to win here.

Jon Fosse

Norwegian novelist Jon Fosse is one of the younger contenders for the Nobel laureate at just 63. 

His 2004 work Aliss at the Fire remains a masterpiece and Olav's Dreams (2012) and Weariness (2014) have gained him further recognition. 

Fosse’s latest novel A New Name: Septology VI-VII was shortlisted for the International Booker Prize and it’s this prowess five decades into his career that makes him a viable 17.0 shot here.

Pierre Michon

Last year’s frontrunner, Pierre Michon will, almost certainly, be given the Nobel laureate before his time is up. The Frenchman isn’t as active as he once was but that won’t stop Nobel. 

Quite often this prize is given not to a prolific writer of the day, or a big-selling name, but an author boasting a career’s worth of reputable works. Michon fits this mould, and at 17.0 is once again a contender for the bookies.

Salman Rushdie

Never too far from controversy, Salman Rushdie was attacked last year in New York and lost the use of his eye and one hand. He survived and at 75 isn’t going away.

The writer of Midnight’s Children and The Satanic Verses has been a name connected with the Nobel Prize for Literature on numerous occasions. 

Last year he was the 9.0 second favourite but didn’t get the gong. In 2023, Rushdie is priced at 17.0 and has a new novel, Victory City, out now. This “triumphant return to the page” could land him the Nobel prize. Perhaps.