Queensland State Election Betting Swings Towards Coalition Over Labor

Betting sites have made a big swing towards backing Liberal Nation in the race to win the 2024 Queensland state election.

Labor had been expected to win this election and maintain their impressive string of results since the federal election victory last year. The polls have for months been neck-and-neck and the betting odds suggested a narrow victory for the ALP.

However, in recent weeks the bookies have been forced to shift their odds back in favour of the Lib/Nats as popularity in the conservative parties surges.

Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk only has a small majority in the Legislative Assembly and it appears as though the ALP’s eight-year hold on the state may be coming to an end. 

In fact, bookmakers that for months were unable to split Labor and Liberal Nation have finally found ground to shift their odds.

And it looks as though Queensland is about to become an outlier among Australian territories, with the conservative cause finding a foothold in the country’s second largest state.

Queensland Election Betting Markets

Having once priced Labor and the LNP at 2.0 apiece to win the 2024 Queensland election, bet365 have recently had a change of heart.

Labor’s odds have ballooned to 2.25, while Liberal Nation are now 1.65 to secure a majority. That suggests a 60.6% chance that the conservatives will secure the Legislative Assembly at next year’s election.

The reason for the swing is a RedBridge poll conducted in early September. It shows a 41% backing for the LNP, compared to 26% for Labor. The LNP also holds a 10-point hold over Labor on a two-party preferred basis.

Exchange betting sites haven’t hung around to see if the polling data will change and immediately cut their odds on the Lib/Nats, while pushing out Labor’s price.

The odds shift comes as scrutiny on Palaszczuk increases over the decision to allow young offenders to be held in watch houses and adult prisons for extended periods. 

Could Queensland’s state premier be primed for the axe? It’s quite possible, with deputy premier Steven Miles and health minister Shannon Fentiman tipped to replace her.

Voters don’t like turmoil and appear to be edging away from Labor and towards safer ground in the LNP.

Issues for Queensland Election

The polls are worrying for Labor. Back in April they had a 35-33 lead over the Lib/Nats but that advantage has disappeared. The conservative surge came in July as voters turned against the government over the cost of living crisis, health and crime.

The poll deficit swiftly widened to six points and then jumped against to 15 off the back of Palaszczuk’s attempts to rush through youth justice laws.

Palaszczuk has been at the helm of the state party for eight years and there is growing speculation that she could be pushed out by a rival. She intends to stand at the 2024 election as Labor leader but voters don’t appear to like the uncertainty over her premiership.

Liberal National leader David Crisafulli, meanwhile, is not resting on his poll lead. He recently accused the ALP of being “more focused on themselves” than on Queensland, saying: “Queenslanders become collateral damage; their issues are slipping through the cracks”.

Crisafulli knows he has a big job ahead of him. Almost 40% of Queenslanders don’t know who he is, and getting his voice out there when so much of the state politics is consumed with the internal machinations of the ALP is difficult.

The conservative leader is becoming more moderate in the hope of courting centrist voters who would naturally side with Labor. Crime and healthcare are where he will seek to make gains across the state, but he has ruled out widespread privatisation as a means of servicing Queensland’s spiralling debts.

How Queensland State Election Works

Queenslanders vote for a new state legislature every four years. The next vote is scheduled for Saturday, October 26, 2024. 

It is a compulsory vote and all 93 seats in the legislative assembly are up for grabs. A party therefore needs 47 seats to secure a majority.

Voters must indicate their full preference for all candidates on their ballot paper. 

That means if no candidate wins the seat on the first preference, the second-preference votes are tallied, and then the third, etc. until there is a winner.

It could well be the case that we have a coalition or minority government at the next Queensland election. 

That’s because the Lib/Nats and Labor are currently neck-and-neck in the polls and on political betting sites. 

Meanwhile, The Greens, One Nation, and Robbie Katter’s Australian parties will all hope to improve on their current number of seats.