Tasmanian Election Betting Backs Liberals’ Rockliff Over White

Betting sites believe Jeremy Rockliff will fend off a challenge from Labor leader Rebecca White to secure a rare win for the Liberals in the upcoming Tasmanian state election.

Conservative politicians have been on a losing streak lately with left-wing victories across the country since the 2022 Federal election.

Tasmania has constantly bucked the trend, though, and is expected to side with Mr Rockliff’s Liberals once again this March.

However, bookmakers haven’t totally written off Labor’s challenge and reckon Ms White could flip the state if she enjoys a strong final fortnight of the campaign. 

Indeed, there’s a very real possibility neither main party is able to form a majority.

Tasmanians are focusing this election on the cost of living, health funding, housing and a big new stadium project in Hobart. 

The Liberals have been in charge since 2014 but argue they are the party best placed to tackle various issues by 2030. The election takes place on March 23. 

Whether voters allow Mr Rockliff and co. more time to address these problems remains to be seen. Yet for now, it looks like Australia’s sole conservative territory will remain so.

Tasmania Election Odds

According to political betting sites, Mr Rockliff is the favourite at 1.33 to be sworn in as Tasmania’s state premier. 

The market focuses on the party the premier is affiliated with, not which party secures a majority.

Because of that, the ALP’s Ms White is priced much further out at 3.30. This price carries a 30.3% probability, compared to Mr Rockliff’s 75.2%.

It is likely that the Liberals will win more seats than the ALP this March but that does not guarantee a majority. 

Tasmania’s lower house is expanding from 25 to 35 seats. Mr Rockliff’s already-narrow majority will be even harder to secure.

The ALP insists they won’t engage in power sharing with the Liberal Party. That leaves a power vacuum where other parties, such as the Greens and Jacqui Lambie, could end up as king makers.

Green leader Rosalie Woodruff is herself 51.0 to secure the state premiership. That’s a big outside bet.

Who Will Win The Tasmania Election?

Right now the bookies are siding with Mr Rockliff to retain his job as state premier in Tasmania after the upcoming election. However, he may have a hard fight to keep it.

The Liberals are polling around 12 points ahead of Labor but that won’t be enough to secure a majority in a 35-seat lower chamber. While Mr Rockliff won’t rule out power sharing, it’s not something he is particularly keen on.

Weirdly, the Tasmania state election is getting dragged into the decision to bring an AFL team to the state in 2028. 

Labor argue the $715m cost for the Macquarie Point stadium and AFL training centre is too much. Mr Rockliff says a public-private joint venture could work instead.

He doesn’t want this election to become a referendum on a stadium – but it might end up being so. Voters will look at the cost and worry that it’s a big expense when housing and healthcare needs fixing first.

The stadium, like many other major builds around the world, could become a political hot potato that threatens to burn the Liberals and ALP.

The latest Tasmania election polls suggest both main parties are struggling. We could, instead, see a boost in support for independents. 

Many Tasmanians will welcome fresh independent voices and there will be a huge scramble from the Liberals and ALP to get their support if a minority government is possible.

Interestingly, 20% of voters still aren’t sure whether they prefer Mr Rockliff or Ms White as state premier.

These voters could swing the election one way or the other. Labor won’t win a majority but they don’t have to for Ms White to get into power. 

As for the Liberals, Mr Rockliff needs to figure out how to attract independents if the new, bigger parliament denies him a majority.