Victoria Election Odds Tips Labor To Beat Coalition To Majority

Betting sites have increased their expectations on Labor winning the upcoming Victoria state election and keeping the right-wing Coalition parties once more out of power.

All 88 seats in the lower Assembly and 40 seats in the upper Council will be voted on when Victorians head to the voting booths on November 26.

The Victoria state election is the first big election to come since the federal election in May, when Anthony Albanese’s Labor party ousted Scott Morrison’s Lib/Nat Coalition.

Since then Victoria’s election odds have only improved for Labor, and it appears a near certainty that Daniel Andrews will remain state premier into the New Year.

Bookmakers so sure are that Australian Labor Party (ALP) will beat the Coalition that some may even stop taking bets soon.

Victoria Election Odds 2022

According to political betting sites, Victorians are all set to vote for a Labor majority. 

The odds of 1.14 on an ALP government being sworn in have come down from 1.66 in mid-July, and represent an 87.7% likelihood.

Meanwhile, the Coalition has seen its odds widen from 4.0 (25%) to 4.75 (21.1%). The drop comes as Labor enjoy a late-winter boost in the polls, while the Coalition’s approval ratings take a further knock.

Right now, Labor leads by about 14 percentage points in the polls. And while Andrews’ approval ratings have fallen recently, they’re still not as low as Matthew Guy’s.

What’s more, the Green’s have enjoyed a boost in recent months and their odds have come in from 69.0 to 51.0.

Will Labor Secure Majority In Victoria?

So, the big question now is whether Labor will secure a majority and Ladbrokes believe they will. 

The odds of an ALP majority have come down to 1.22 (82% likelihood), while a Labor minority is out to 5.75.

What’s more, a Coalition majority is now priced at 6.0 (16.7%), which goes to show just how disenfranchised Victorians are from the Liberals and Nationals right now.

Labor need 76 seats in the House of Representatives for a majority. This looks increasingly likely, with polls suggesting 54 seats are safe. 

There are 32 seats considered marginal between the two parties, the majority of which are Liberal seats. Win enough of these and Labor will get its majority.

Victorian Election Issues

The polls indicate Andrews’ party is 57-33 ahead and the weeks are running out for the Coalition to do anything about it. 

Premier Andrews had enjoyed a spike in the polls at the beginning of winter thanks largely to Labor’s federal election victory.

Issues over healthcare, the environment, the economy and spending are still ones the premier is struggling with. 

In fact, he’s suffered a recent fall in popularity over the government’s flagship Suburban Rail Loop project.

Polling data suggests just 35.3% of voters will give Labor their first preference vote, a drop from 7.56% from the last state election in 2018. 

It is also believed there is a 4% to 5% swing in the polls, so the Labor lead may not be quite as large as the data suggests.

However, the Coalition isn’t exactly faring well either. Their poll ratings are down, and electoral redistribution means Labor will gain two net seats.

However, it is believed that Guy has managed to scrape back some support by pledging to scrap the Suburban Rail Loop project. 

He says the $34.5bn will instead be invested in healthcare - a simple but eye-catching policy that is bound to attract voters.

“This November, Victorians face a clear choice. A choice between immediately rebuilding Victoria’s broken health system, or a train line in 13 years’ time,” Guy said.

The battle lines are steadily being drawn up and we still have a good few weeks yet before voters head to the polls. However, Guy will need more than this to overturn the deficit.