Donn McClean: King George VI Chase In A State Of Flux
It’s a strange-looking King George VI Chase now, no question, since all the Willie Mullins-trained horses were taken out on Tuesday.
Gaelic Warrior has the look of a King George aspirant about him all right, the class of him, last season’s Arkle winner who won the Grade 1 novices’ hurdle over three miles at the 2023 Punchestown Festival.
He can jump to his right too, he won the Arkle despite the left-handed orientation of Cheltenham racecourse, not because of it.
He could be very happy zinging around Kempton’s turns. But he hasn’t run yet this season and Mullins says that he doesn't want him to be racing over three miles on his seasonal return.
He’ll probably go to Leopardstown at Christmas now for the Grade 1 chase over two miles and a furlong.
He could then go on to the Dublin Racing Festival, all going well, for the Dublin Chase over the same course and distance, or he could go to Ascot for the right-handed Clarence House Chase.
That is, obviously, with the caveat that the race isn’t re-routed to Cheltenham, as it has been in each of the last two years.
That’s all for later though, and it’s all conjecture. What we do know for sure is that Gaelic Warrior’s trainer says that he will not be running in this year’s King George.
Nor will Il Etait Temps, and that is a pity. He did have the option of making his seasonal return in the John Durkan Chase on Sunday, but that didn’t happen and, again, it looks like the champion trainer doesn't want him starting off this season in a King George, over three miles at Kempton.
You can understand that too. A three-time Grade 1 winner last season as a novice chaser over distances from two to two and a half miles, the Jukebox Jury gelding has never been beyond two and a half miles in his life.
And we know that the road to the King George is littered with top-class two-and-a-half-mile chasers for whom three miles – sure, if he’s going to stay three miles anywhere, he’s going to stay it at Kempton – was just too great a stamina test in the King George.
Fact To File was never in the King George. Spillane’s Tower and Fastorslow are other notable absentees.
Il Est Francais was seriously impressive in winning the Kauto Star Chase over the King George course and distance as a novice last year, when he clocked a time that was over four seconds faster than the time that Hewick clocked in winning the King George.
But he was pulled up in the Grade 1 Prix la Haye Jousselin at Auteuil two weeks ago, and he is in a race against time now.
That leaves Corbetts Cross and Envoi Allen at the top of the market now as things stand, and you can pick holes in the chances of both horses.
Corbetts Cross has been beaten in the two races that he has contested since he won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March, a race from which the three horses who filled the places behind him have all run and been beaten since.
He could morph into a top-class staying chaser this season, but he has to step forward again now, and Kempton may not be an ideal track for him.
Envoi Allen is a fantastic chaser, a nine-time Grade 1 winner, and he proved that he retains all his enthusiasm for racing at Down Royal last time when he won the Champion Chase again for the second time in three years.
But he was well beaten in the King George in 2022 on his only run to date at Kempton. It's a pity that he didn’t give his true running that day, for whatever reason, because that may have been his chance of winning the race.
He is 10 now, and only one horse aged older than nine has won the King George in the last 20 years: Kauto Star.
Hewick was brilliant last year, but he will need the rain to stay away for the next five weeks if he is to take his chance or if he is to have a chance.
Grey Dawning is obviously very good, and the type of test that the King George presents could suit him well. Dan Skelton’s horse won a handicap hurdle on King George day in 2022 on his only run to date at Kempton.
But he had his limitations exposed in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on Saturday and it looked like he had a really hard race there. A turnaround of less than five weeks may not be sufficient.
Found A Fifty would be interesting if he was aimed at the race, stepping up to three miles and going right-handed, but it looks like Gordon Elliott is favouring the two-mile route for him for now.
Banbridge is another of the more interesting horses among the entries at present. True, you have to forgive him his comeback run in the Fortria Chase at Navan two weeks ago, and he has gone well in the past, but it just wasn’t his running.
That aside, he has a lot in his favour as a potential King George horse. Joseph O’Brien’s horse had the stamina to win the Martin Pipe Hurdle over two and a half miles at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival, yet he had the pace to win the Arkle Trial back at Cheltenham the following November.
On his only run over three miles under rules, he was well beaten in the Sefton Hurdle at Aintree in 2022, but he stays two and a half miles well, and he shapes as if he could get further.
Also, on his only run to date at Kempton, he won the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase last January on his seasonal debut.
That said, he is at his best on goodish ground and, like Hewick, he may not even run if the ground comes up soft.
As well as that, there is the possibility that Fastorslow or Fact To File or even Spillane’s Tower could be added to the race at the supplementary entry stage.
The potential make-up of the race is in a state of flux at present, and that makes a commitment to an ante post involvement in the race at this stage difficult, because a supplementary entry or two could add significant ballast to the strength of the race.
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