Horse Racing Tips: Tanya Stevenson's Tips For Boxing Day And Friday
What a wealth of wonderful racing as always over the festive period. There are 11 meetings on Boxing Day alone!
As I wade through all the races on horse racing betting sites at the entry stage I jotted down those that I wanted to scrutinise further and as it happens, perhaps due to the ground aside from the King George, I'm only left with two, so fingers tightly crossed.
Firstly though, when recording the excellent Racehour, I made a complete hash of two of the big Christmas races; the King George and then the Welsh National.
The ante-post on the latter with Broadway Boy has gone astray and at least I have one other but pause on that for a moment.
Apologies for both races. It was not clear whether Spillane’s Tower was to run and then he was supplemented after I had picked L’Homme Presse.
But now it's even trickier for me as quite a few of the 11 remaining in the big race are non-runners due to the ground being “unsuitable” - despite it being good.
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Tanya Stevenson's Selections For Boxing Day And Friday
- The Panel Selection 1 (Boxing Day): 14:30 Kempton - L'Homme Presse - Each-Way - 11/1 With BetVictor
- The Panel Selection 2 (Boxing Day): 15:40 Kempton - Doddiethegreat - Win - 4/1 With Ladbrokes
- The Panel Selection 3 (Boxing Day): 14:38 Wincanton - Long Draw - Win - 11/4 With Bet365
- The Panel Selection 4 (Friday): 12:00 Chepstow - Lanesborough - Win
- The Panel Selection 5 (Friday): 14:50 Chepstow - Iwilldoit - Each-Way
- The Panel Selection 6 (Friday): 15:00 Leopardstown - Pinkerton - Win (Nap)
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 1: Kempton 14:30 - L'Homme Presse
Those that act on good ground are Banbridge, who has been craving this for some time, The Real Whacker and Envoi Allen.
And who can forget Il Est Francais’ run on a sound surface 12 months ago? What he produced had him crowned by most as a potential King George winner.
Life though has not been smooth for the French challenger since, though I do feel if James Reveley adopts those same tactics, it will have a few ill at ease with the pace, with some sulking as they can’t lead and some chasing more than they should as they like to finish late.
It will be the first time for French-trained raiders since 2005, but on the 13 occasions they did have at least one runner between 1987 and 2005 they won it five times. So with three very capable entries, beware!
JP McManus has never won the King George, but hasn’t had that many runners. Since 2005, when First Gold finished fifth, his only other runner came in 2021 with Chantry House which pulled up as a 3/1 fav.
His best finisher was Jack Of Trumps who was runner-up in 1978 and 1979. Could this be his year?
I was really strong with Spillane’s Tower. The way he ran in the John Durkan gave the impression Kempton’s three miles would be perfect, but now on good ground the doubts have sunk in and, at the price, is a bit short.
Venetia Williams continued her great run with Victtorino on Saturday and what a ride by Charlie Deutsch.
Venetia has won the King George before, back in 1998 with Teeton Mill and they have been here before with L’Homme Presse.
He did so well in this in 2022 when he was still challenging Bravemansgame at the last before unseating Deutsch.
In hindsight perhaps he might have wanted company turning for home. After that we didn’t see him for 391 days when he reappeared at Lingfield to win the Fleur De Lys Chase.
Then it felt all a bit rushed to get to the Gold Cup and all things considered that fourth place at Cheltenham was astonishing.
When fresh and first time up his record is 51111. He will be fine with the fast pace, and he has laid up with Pic d’Orhy in an Ascot Chase. He just needs to get into a rhythm and not chase the race. The ground is a small worry, so fingers crossed.
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 2: Kempton 15:40 - Doddiethegreat
The last race on the card, the 15:40, was always an intriguing watch come declarations as Nicky Henderson had 10 in the race at the entry stage.
Henderson won this race in 2020 and 2021, and is running East India Express and Doddiethegreat this year.
The latter ran a brilliant, eye-catching fourth in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in really deep ground. I was hoping the plan was to go straight to Ayr for the Scottish Champion Hurdle.
Sadly he took in the Coral Cup in which he never got going and as favourite at Ayr he ran really flat from four out. The run on heavy at Newbury had really detracted from his chances.
He has already run this season, at Kempton over the bigger obstacles and it was a small disaster as he didn’t jump well.
The good news, though, is that his hurdle mark is back down to 129. Henderson has a 25% strike rate at Kempton. Nico de Boinville is four wins from eight runs on him and he is unbeaten in three on good ground.
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 3: Wincanton 14:38 - Long Draw
The 14:38 Wincanton will catch the eye of many as Oisin Murphy rides Ike Sport for Neil Mulholland.
Hopefully that will distract from Long Draw who was very popular in the betting for his last run at Cheltenham where he coasted through to beat Gowel Road, Wonderful Eagle and Doyen Quest.
The Olly Murphy hurdler was backing up his run where he finished behind Hamsiyann and ahead of Wyenot at Cheltenham’s November meeting.
It’s understandable that the handicapper has put him up another seven but Beau Morgan’s claim will offset much of that.
Plus the rider is four from 15 for Olly Murphy.
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 4: Chepstow 14:50 - Iwilldoit
On to Friday and Chepstow for which we must wait for the declarations on Boxing Day!
So, plenty to be concentrating on as they also declare for Saturday on December 26, too.
Anyway, the ground at Chepstow might not even have heavy in the description, a right turn-up.
I'm already a bit deflated with getting the participation of Broadway Boy completely wrong, but I still have previous winner Iwilldoit.
He may be 11 years old but he was only 13-2 in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February and he carried top weight, too. In the end he was only beaten 11 lengths into fifth place.
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He hasn’t been seen since and evidence of Al Dancer at Wincanton shows you how well Sam Thomas has them on point for their races.
Iwilldoit is actually better on good to soft or soft than he is heavy. He can deal with the latter.
On board is Callum Pritchard whose only previous ride for Sam was the aforementioned Al Dancer for that win in the Badger Beer at Wincanton.
In the Welsh National, no matter the ground, the position to be is either from the front or in the first four and I sense Iwilldoit will be ridden very handy.
Horses who have won or placed in the race often do so again and he could be value each-way.
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 5: Chepstow 12:00 - Lanesborough
In the very first race I am hoping Lanesborough declares.
His form figures may not say much with two fifths but his second race at Southwell caught the eye of many shrewd race watchers, especially with the manner of his late run.
Even the Racing Post stated he was given too much to do. Let’s see if he declares - he is certainly one for the tracker if not.
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 6: Leopardstown 15:00 - Pinkerton
Finally, on Racehour I was asked for a festive nap, so I went with Pinkerton. He was going to be my pick in the December Gold Cup, a race Noel Meade won back in 2005 with Sir Oj.
Alas, he never declared and I was left to rue my each-way pick Sure Touch not really getting into the contest.
Noel Meade won the Paddy Power Chase in 2021 with School Boy Hours and was beaten a short-head with Diol Ker a year later.
It’s a race he has recently found the knack of getting the right horse to the start.
It’s so competitive that it's wise to be not only battle hardened but have a bit of improvement.
Pinkerton has both. He won the Galway Plate despite making a few errors in jumping and then last time out gave Found A Fifty something to think about.
He might have sufficient to come through late and nab this close home.
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